1 veteran versus 6 rookies – GoldDerby
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The films contending for the 2023 Best Original Screenplay Oscar are The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, TAR and Triangle of Sadness. Our odds currently show that Everything Everywhere All at Once (10/3) will win the award, followed in order of likelihood by The Banshees of Inisherin (18/5), TAR (9/2) , “The Fabelmans” (9/2) and “Triangle of Sadness” (9/2).
For the fifth time in six years, several original writer nominees also received directing and producing offers. As a historical novelty, all five films in this series are also in the running for best director Tony Kuschner (“The Fabelmans”) is the only original screenwriter not to be nominated there as well. He shares his writing message with the film’s director, Steven Spielbergwho now has 22 Oscar bids to his name and was previously tapped to direct Schindler’s List (1994) and Saving Private Ryan (1999) and to produce the former.
Of the seven people currently competing for this writing award, only Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) was previously nominated in the category. His new application is his third here, following previous ones for In Bruges (2009) and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2018). Aside from Spielberg, he is the only other former Oscar winner in this group, having clinched a win for Best Live-Action Short in 2006 for Six Shooter.
Although Kushner is new to this category, he has already received two Best Adapted Screenplay nominations for Munich (2006) and Lincoln (2013). The same applies to the “TAR” writer Todd Field, which won in the opposite category for In The Bedroom (2002) and Little Children (2007). Along with Spielberg, the remaining three first-time original-writer contenders are in this bunch Daniel Kun And Daniel Scheinert (“Everything everywhere at once”) and Ruben Ostlund (“Triangle of Sadness”).
Kwan made history as the first person of Chinese descent to ever receive a Best Original Screenplay nomination. He would be the first Asian American male to win the award and the fourth Asian winner in the category thereafter Callie Khouri (Lebanese descent; Thelma & Louise, 1992) and Korean-born Bong Joon Ho And Han Jin-won (“Parasite,” 2020).
All of the individuals currently competing for this award are male, making this the second consecutive year in this category. The other two groups this has been the case for in the last 10 years are those from 2015 and 2017.
The most recent films to win in this category are Belfast (2022), Promising Young Woman (2021), Parasite (2020) and Green Book (2019). This year’s winner will be announced during the 95th Annual Academy Awards, which will air March 12 on ABC.
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