5 best bets for Sunday Night Baseball Aug 14 2022

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more information on sports betting go to DraftKings.com.

Baseball’s greatest rivalry adds another chapter to Sunday Night Baseball. The Yankees will take on the Red Sox in Boston, and both teams need a win for different reasons.

The Yankees started the year as the best team in baseball. They were over .500 a whopping 38 games on July 8 – giving them the best record in the league – but they’ve been going through a bit of a rough patch lately. They’ve won just two of their last 10 games, which has allowed the Astros to overtake them in AL standings.

Meanwhile, things were getting worse for the Red Sox. They currently sit at 56-59, bottom of the AL East. They’re 4 1/2 games behind the Rays for last spot in the AL playoffs, and FanGraphs gives them just a 14.7% chance of qualifying for the postseason.

Can the Red Sox turn their season around or will the Yankees reassert their dominance? Let’s dive into five of my favorite Sunday Night Baseball bets.

That’s a big number for a non-Coors field game, but there’s reason to believe in the over at this point. For starters, these teams both have strong attacks. The Yankees are second in the league at an average of 5.2 runs per game, while the Red Sox are 15th at 4.5.

The over has also historically dominated when these two teams meet at Fenway Park. The over went 87-66-5 during the 2005 regular season, including 4-2 so far this season. The over also becomes more profitable as the total increases, with the ROI increasing to 12.8% on games totaling at least 9.5 runs.

The Red Sox pass the ball to Michael Wacha. He has an excellent 2.69 ERA this season, but he’s thrived thanks to Rauch and Spiegel. His 4.77 xERA is more than two full runs higher than his actual mark and is likely a more accurate representation of his level of talent.

Taillon has recorded at least 18 outs in two of his last three starts, but those appear to be outliers. He’s hit the under in nine of his last 12 games with 17.5 outs, and many of those have been against weaker opponents. That includes less than six innings against the Pirates, A’s and Cubs.

His track record against the Red Sox so far is a bit mixed. He served six innings with one-run ball in his last meet against Boston, but in his first matchup he was rattled for six runs over five innings.

This bet also has nice synergy with the over on 9.5 runs. If it’s a higher-scoring competition, there’s a more than likely chance that the starting pitchers won’t go deep into that game.

Let’s continue to focus on the offensive in this duel. The first inning is historically the highest scoring inning in baseball, which makes sense when you think about it. It’s the only inning where both teams are guaranteed to bat at the top of their lineup, and it often takes pitchers an inning or two to settle into the game.

Not surprisingly, the Yankees have been one of baseball’s best first-inning teams this season. They have scored the first goal in just under 36% of their games, which is the second highest mark in the league. The Red Sox aren’t quite as impressive in that regard, but they’ve netted once in the first inning in their last three games. Taillon has a 5.32 ERA in the first inning this season, his worst single-inning mark. That gives the Red Sox a little more upside potential than usual.

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The First Hit Props are a relatively new offering at DraftKings Sportsbook. The road team has an inherent advantage on this prop in that they hit first, but that advantage is reflected in their odds of winning. The top three players from the street team are usually the favorites, followed by the top three players from the home team. The longer you are willing to bet on the game failing, the better odds you will find.

I’m not going too deep into the board here. Judge is expected to bat second for the Yankees on Sunday and he’s had a monster year. He leads the league in home runs, RBIs, runs scored and wRC+ and ranks 10th in batting average.

He was at his best in right-right matchups, posting an absurd 208 wRC+ in that split. Wacha has also struggled a bit against righties this season, posting a .264 batting average. When DJ LeMahieu doesn’t score to start the game, I like Judge’s chances of getting on the board.

For the first homer pick, I’m going to the Red Sox. The position of the batting order isn’t nearly as important – the first homer can come at any point in the game – so just grab the player you think offers the most value.

Devers is easily one of baseball’s best hitters against right-handed pitchers. He’s hit a 170 wRC+ and a .299 ISO in those matchups this season, and 20 of his 24 home runs have come from that split. Devers has also had success against Taillon in the past, hitting a homer in eight career at-bats.

I’m a promoter at DraftKings and also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and sometimes play on my personal account in the games I give advice on. Although I have given my personal opinion on the games and strategies above, they are do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All clients should use their own skill and judgment in building constellations. I can also use other players and strategies than those I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to non-public information.

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