How extreme weather could force travellers to revamp their vacation plans — now and in the future

A recent trip to Europe was a first for Amanda Jacobsmeyer, as she traveled in summer rather than a cooler season.

“It was very hot,” said Jacobsmeyer, a New Yorker who visited northern Italy, southern France and Monaco for eight days in July.

In Monaco, the mercury was so high that a fellow traveler in Jacobsmeyer’s tour group revealed that she and her family were skipping a week-long leg of their trip as temperatures topped 30 degrees.

“I’m far too stingy to cancel a holiday that’s already been paid for,” says Jacobsmeyer, who nevertheless sees it as logical to have a limit when it comes to heat.

Europe has experienced several waves of sweltering heat this summer, which in some cases have surpassed records. Parts of the continent have faced severe drought conditions – and wildfires have ripped through forests, forcing people to flee homes, campgrounds and resorts.

Travel industry experts say the continent has struggled with extreme weather events in the past, but these challenges hold potential for where and when people travel as they travel more frequently given our changing climate.

have to adapt

In south-west France, firefighters tried to quell a major wildfire in the Gironde region this week – just like they did last month. The country is also now facing its worst drought on record and the fourth heat wave this year.

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Frédéric Dimanche, director of the Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at Toronto Metropolitan University, said the country has dealt with wildfires in the past – particularly in the more fire-prone south – but not with the combined magnitude and frequency of the problems this year .

“The consequences of these fires appear to be greater than ever,” said Dimanche, who is originally from France and follows the news there.

He said it’s too early to tell how tourists will shape their vacation plans going forward, but some tourism providers are signaling they will be making adjustments.

Dimanche heard an interview with the owner of a campsite recently destroyed by fire near Arcachon, France.

The owner planned to remodel his facility with a more environmentally responsible facility in mind. But he was optimistic about the future.

“In this interview there was never any question of giving up,” said Dimanche. “He still expects people to come back next year.”

heat, yes Too much heat, no

Dimanche said this part of France and the entire Mediterranean region attracts sun-seekers from other parts of the continent for vacation, whether traveling by car, train or plane.

And like their fellow overseas travelers, these holidaymakers are here to enjoy the heat.

“It’s quite a lot of sun – guaranteed for the whole summer,” he said.

Mary Chao can vouch for the power of the sun in southern France long before summer officially begins, just as she went to the Côte d’Azur with her husband in May.

“By the afternoon it was just scorching heat,” said Chao, a journalist living in New Jersey.

Chao said coping with the kind of extreme heat that followed later in the summer made her “miserable”.

Climate scientist Dominic Royé, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Santiago de Compostela in Spain, said the broader Mediterranean region is warming 20 percent faster than the global average.

“If you think about how much tourist activity depends on weather conditions, you can imagine the potential impact [on tourism]’ Royé said in an email.

The European Travel Commission (ETC), which represents more than 30 national tourism organizations, says it has no data on how the extreme weather plaguing the continent is affecting tourists’ choices this year.

“Sporadic adverse weather conditions are unlikely to affect the immediate travel behavior of the majority of tourists,” the ETC’s executive unit said via email.

But if such conditions “persist over the long term,” the ETC believes, a change could be on the horizon — possibly in the form of people choosing to travel to other places or take vacations at times of the year when it is hot is less intense.

In Italy, tourists visiting Lake Garda this summer, where water levels have dropped dramatically, will get a glimpse of how extreme weather can affect their travel and leisure activities.

Rocks that were previously submerged are now exposed, encircling the Sirmione Peninsula well beyond the normal shoreline. The water that lies beyond is several degrees above its normal temperature – almost equal to the average of the Caribbean Sea.

Garda Mayor Davide Bedinelli said the tourist season is going better than expected, despite traveler cancellations during a heatwave in July.

“Drought is a fact we will have to deal with this year, but the tourist season is not in danger,” he wrote on Facebook last month.

More focus on risk

Dimanche points out that people traveling abroad this summer had to make their plans against the ongoing backdrop of a global pandemic.

He thinks the same thought process could become a bigger part of how people plan their trips in the future.

“I think we increasingly need to consider weather and climate change risk assessments,” Dimanche said.

This could also be a factor for travel and tourism companies; Dimanche said they had to consider the risks their customers might face.

Víctor Resco de Dios, professor of forestry at the University of Lleida in Spain, sees wildfires as a particular risk area that needs to be addressed.

“The tourism sector needs to adapt quickly,” Resco de Dios, who sees an increasing threat to tourism as wildfires escalate, said in an email.

Resco de Dios said this is a particular concern for tourist destinations that border forests. Steps must be taken to mitigate fire risks, in part by reducing tree cover so there is less fuel for future wildfires, he said.

“I don’t think people are aware that their vacation spot can become a mousetrap under fire,” said Resco de Dios, who believes governments should publish maps indicating whether a place is fireproof or not .

“This allows tourists to make informed decisions about the risk they are taking with their holiday destination.”