NBA, UFC 284, WM Phoenix Open, More Props To Bet Against Chiefs-Eagles
Welcome to Super Bowl weekend, also known as a bettor’s paradise.
The sports world — especially the sports betting world — has its eyes on Sunday’s Chiefs vs. Eagles matchup, but the sporting world around that game has plenty to offer, as well.
Sportsbooks know this as a bettor’s Christmas, and they’ve come up with creative ways to combine our interests. And this year, the cross-sport Super Bowl betting offerings appear more robust than ever.
There are NBA and NHL games throughout the weekend and even into Monday on which you can bet against Super Bowl results. But that’s not all, there’s UFC 284 on Saturday, which features a champion-vs-champion main event of Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski. There’s also the PGA Tour’s WM Phoenix Open, with a riveting final round set for Sunday in the same city as this year’s Super Bowl.
The number of ways in which you can combine a different sporting event with the Super Bowl is seemingly endless, and our analysts have you covered on how to bet it.
Here are our favorite cross-sport props for Super Bowl 57.
2023 Super Bowl Cross-Sport Props
| NHL | |
| NASCAR | |
NBA
Lakers vs. Warriors Total +4.5 (-115) vs. Jalen Hurts Passing Yards -4.5 (-115)
Odds via Caesars
When is the non-Super Bowl event? Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors, Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Brandon Anderson: The Lakers and Warriors play Saturday night in what was probably supposed to be one of the marquee games of the season — and oh, what might have been. In another timeline, we’d be getting Steph Curry vs. LeBron James with the all-time scoring record on the line, but instead Curry is hurt and James broke the record Tuesday.
Alas — guess we’ll just have to make some money instead.
The Lakers and Warriors are the two fastest-paced teams in the NBA this season. Lakers games average 235.7 PPG and Warriors games are at 236.8. Those are two of the three highest marks in the league, and all that pace and run-and-gun offense will only compound as the teams play each other. In three games against one another over the past two seasons, we got totals of 232, 235, and 232.
We should expect something in at least the 230s again here, even with Curry out, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this game hit the 240s or higher. That means Jalen Hurts -4.5 will need at least 240 yards to win his side of this bet, and maybe more.
Hurts was very boom-or-bust as a passer this year. Five times in 17 games, he threw for 285 yards or more in a big outing. But in nine of those games — more than half of them — he was at 229 or fewer, six times failing to even reach 200.
There are three games between 239 and 243 that could make this a close call, but if the Lakers-Warriors total gets to 238, that means Hurts would have only covered his side of this bet five of 17 games (29%) all year.
The Chiefs have a young secondary, but their pass defense has actually been pretty solid and even better down the stretch. It’s their run defense that’s much worse, dead last in ESPN’s run-stop metric, and Philly’s No. 1 run game is its huge advantage in this game. There’s always the chance Hurts puts up 280 yards and this bet is dead, but it’s far more likely that he ends up somewhere around 200, where I expect him, and this is effectively a freebie even if the Lakers and Warriors are cold.
I think the -4.5 is on the wrong side of this one and expect Hurts to fall well short. Give me the Lakers/Warriors total and hopefully we’re sitting on a number in the 240s or higher heading into Sunday night.
Pick: Lakers vs. Warriors Total +4.5 (-115)
Jayson Tatum Points + Rebounds + Assists on Sunday (+150) vs. Super Bowl Total Points (-185)
Odds via DraftKings
When is the non-Super Bowl event? Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics, Sunday, 2 p.m. ET
Matt Moore: The Grizzlies road struggles are prolific. Their half-court offense goes to pieces, and in Boston on an early start, it should be even worse. That will boost Jayson Tatum’s rebounds.
The Grizzlies will turn the ball over and that will lead to a faster-paced game. Tatum gets up for these Sunday showcase games.
Meanwhile, either the Eagles’ defensive line dominates, allowing the Eagles to play from a lead and run the ball and hold down KC’s offense, or the Chiefs get up big and the Eagles have to play from behind, which they struggle with.
I’ll take Tatum over the gridiron points on Sunday.
Pick: Jayson Tatum P+R+A (+150)
LeBron James Points + Rebounds + Assists on Monday (-110) vs. Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards (-120)
Odds via DraftKings
When is the non-Super Bowl event? Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers, Monday, 10 p.m. ET
Joe Dellera: I expect LeBron James to open on Monday against Portland at roughly 45.5 PRA. In two previous games against the Blazers, he was listed at 48.5 on January 22nd without Anthony Davis and 43.5 PRA back in October with Davis. In those games, he recorded 52 and 47 PRA, respectively.
Contrast this with Jalen Hurts — his prop line is set at 50.5 rushing yards. Hurts should find success rushing the ball in this game. Kansas City is ranked 17th in Defensive DVOA with the 15th-ranked Rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders.
Hurts has averaged 49 rushing yards per game this season and has cleared this line of 50.5 in seven of 17 games. James has averaged 45.7 PRA this season but just 42.3 with Davis in the lineup. Now, add in increased usage from D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley and this is a different team with more mouths to feed.
The Super Bowl should be a hotly contested game with both teams leaving it all out on the field. Hurts has had two months to recover from his shoulder injury and I expect him to have a big game.
In terms of upside, Hurts easily has a higher ceiling. An incredible night for LeBron would be a 40-point triple-double and that would be 60 PRA. Hurts could run for 60+ yards and we would not think anything of it.
This prop is mispriced, and I’ll back Jalen Hurts to run for more yards than LeBron to record PRA.
Pick: Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards (-120)
UFC
Alexander Volkanovski-Islam Makhachev Total Rounds (-150) vs. Chiefs Total Touchdowns (+120)
Odds via DraftKings
When is the non-Super Bowl event? UFC 284’s main card begins Saturday at 10 p.m. ET, the main event will likely begin after midnight ET.
At the same book, oddsmakers set the Chiefs Over 2.5 Touchdowns at -190 (65.5% implied) and the UFC Main Event Over 2.5 Rounds at -165 (62.3% implied). So right away, you can see that the market expects more touchdowns for the Chiefs than rounds in the fight.
However, if the fight starts and ends in the third round (meaning 2.1 to 2.9 rounds completed), the Chiefs would need to score at least three touchdowns to beat that number, so the football side of our wager can only move by whole integers, while the MMA side can increase by percentage points.
As a result, since it’s not a one-for-one comparison, you can’t look at the touchdown line and say “the market is giving us the more likely outcome at plus money” because the distribution of outcomes is unequal.
However, my projection on the fight ending by finish is 66.1% (-195 implied), a bit higher than the market consensus at -175 (63.6% implied).
Considering that I have already bet the UFC Main Event will end inside the distance, I’ll take the Chiefs’ touchdown side of this cross-sport prop.
While the rounds have the advantage of increasing by percentage points, the upside is also capped at five rounds maximum, meaning if the Chiefs score five touchdowns, you can’t do worse than a push on this wager.
Pick: Chiefs Total Touchdowns (+120)
PGA Tour
WM Phoenix Open Round 4 birdies on 16th Hole -1 (-140) or Total First-Quarter Points +1 (+110)
Odds via Caesars
When is the non-Super Bowl event? The final round of the WM Phoenix Open begins Sunday morning.
In the final round, though, there were only 10 birdies out of the 67 players who made the cut. There’s good reason for this: The Sunday hole location is always a bit tougher.
As stats guru Justin Ray of the Twenty First Group tweeted earlier this week, the average proximity to the hole at No. 16 was 30 feet, 5 inches on Sunday, which was the furthest of any round and a full eight feet from the previous day, on average.
We should expect something similar this year, although with more elite-level players in the field and potentially more than 67 players making the cut, don’t be surprised to see this number inch closer to the mid-teens than the 10 we witnessed a year ago.
Collin Wilson: The formula is always the same in the Super Bowl when it comes to live betting the total. Allow those first few scripted drives to play out before the adjustments are made.
The first quarter has exceeded 10 points only once in the past 11 Super Bowls, giving bettors the chance to hit an over before the start of the second quarter.
Pin locations are always set in the toughest part of the grid on the green when it comes to Sunday, but the WMPO field is talent-rich in comparison to 2021. Even a birdie count in the mid-teens would dominate most Super Bowl first-quarter totals from the past two decades.
Pick: R4 Birdies on 16th Hole -1 (-140)
NHL
What Will Be More: Flyers Goals Sunday (-110) vs. Eagles Sacks (-110)
Odds via Caesars
When is the non-Super Bowl event? Seattle Kraken vs. Philadelphia Flyers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Brandon Anderson: The most important matchup in the Super Bowl may well come in the trenches.
Kansas City gets high marks for its pass blocking, but its strength is the interior line. Tackles Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie are more volatile and less reliable, and Kansas City’s line has been largely untested this year, playing only one team all season ranked in the top quarter of the league in pressure rate.
Well, the Eagles rank No. 1 in pressure rate, with a bullet. Philadelphia sacked quarterbacks on 11.5% of opponent pass plays this season. That ranked first, not just this year but for this entire century. The Eagles were as far ahead of No. 2 as No. 2 was ahead of No. 29, lapping the entire NFL. Haason Reddick led the way with 19.5 sacks so far, and Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham and Javon Hargrave added 11+ sacks each too.
Patrick Mahomes is still limited with an ankle injury, and as we saw last game, that ankle will only get worse as the game goes on. If the Eagles get ahead and those edge rushers can pin their ears back and come in waves, we could see four, five, even more sacks.
Mahomes was sacked at least twice in more than half his games this year, and that number typically goes up in his playoff games. He averages 2.3 times sacked per playoff game, with at least three sacks in over half of them. Against such an elite pressure rate, I like Philly to get at least three sacks, maybe more. The posted sack prop line with over 2.5 juiced to -125 suggests the same.
Philadelphia fans probably won’t pay as much attention to their team on ice. The Flyers are near the bottom of the standings and will be serious underdogs to the Seattle Kraken. As long as Philadelphia loses that game, we should be in business.
When the Flyers win, they average 3.8 goals a game, but they’ve won only 22 times in 53 games. In the 31 losses, they average exactly 2.0 goals per game, with 21 of the losses (67%) at two goals or fewer.
I see a median outcome for sacks closer to three with a median outcome for goals right at two, and I also expect a much longer positive tail on the sacks since the Eagles averaged four per game and are capable of exploding for a big number if the game script really goes their direction.
Let’s hope Philly’s edge rushers put this one on ice.
Pick: Eagles Sacks (-110)
NASCAR
What Will Be More: Number of Cautions In The Daytona 500 (-130) vs. Length of First Touchdown in Super Bowl 57 (+100)
Odds via Caesars
When is the non-Super Bowl event? The Daytona 500 is on Sunday, Feb. 19 at 2:30 p.m. ET
The highest number of cautions in a Daytona 500 ever was in 2011 with 16 cautions. Last year’s Super Bowl scoring began with Odell Beckham Jr hauling in a 17-yard touchdown. In the prior year, Super Bowl 55, Rob Gronkowski opened the Buccaneers’ massacre of Kansas City with an eight-yard touchdown.
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Both the Chiefs and Eagles have explosive receiving (and rushing) options. I like the first touchdown’s yardage distance to exceed the number of cautions in the Daytona 500.
Pick: Length of First Touchdown (+100)