GDB 54.0: The Biggest Sporting Event You’ll Watch Today (10:30 AM MT, SNW)
We’ve got a big sports Sunday ahead of us, internet buddies, as the Edmonton Oilers take on the Montreal Canadiens for a second matinee in as many days before we all head off for the Super Bowl plans we have later this afternoon. That’s a good way to live, don’t you think?
Looking at the numbers that back up my overall bullish bias, the Habs have a -54 goal difference, are six games under .500 (10 if you count OTL) and are struggling to win at home with a 12-14 record -1, and if that’s not a recipe for success for our boys, then I don’t know what is. Put another way, the Oilers need to consider this game another winnable game if they can afford a reasonable outlay. And while it’s almost impossible to avoid the thought of a perfect four-point weekend, we all know what can happen when you start counting your chickens too soon, and it’s up to the Oilers to make sure they do to be executed.
To ensure the Oilers come out of this morning’s game with two big points and cap off a perfect weekend, the most important thing I can think of is getting through the first 10 minutes until they can get their legs back under them. If there’s one thing we know about back-to-back gaming, it’s that it can take a shift, or three, or ten shifts to get the engines running again, making the launch of this game an incredibly important detail might. However, if they can score an early goal to set the tone, as they did in Ottawa yesterday, it will be difficult for the scoreless Canadians to climb their way back.
On the other end of the ice, the Habs are in exactly the same spot as they are also playing their second game in as many days, and whichever team is ready could have a leg up in the early moments. If our boys can handle the inertia that comes with an overnight stay in another city and don’t make costly mistakes, then I see no reason why we shouldn’t celebrate a win ahead of the Super Bowl celebrations you’re lining up for Day. On paper and on the ice, the Oilers are the better hockey team in this matchup, and that should ultimately see them win this hockey game.
Let’s see what the numbers say.
| OILER | Canadian | |
| RECORD | 30-18-5 | 21-27-4 |
| WIN/LOSS STRAK | w1 | w1 |
| The last 10 games | 8-0-2 | 4-5-1 |
| GOALS FOR | 199 | 138 |
| GOALS AGAINST | 169 | 192 |
| POWER GAME% | 31.5 | 15.4 |
| PENALTY KILL% | 76.1 | 72.5 |
| avg SHOT/FOR | 33.1 | 27.9 |
| avg SHOTS/AGAINST | 31.9 | 33.9 |
| TEAM SAVE% | .918 | .910 |
| CORSI FOR% | 50.84 | 46.65 |
| PDO | 1,005 | 0.994 |
| TEAM RECORD% | 8.71 | 8.42 |
| EXPECTED TARGETS FOR % | 51.91 | 43.71 |
GDB PRESENTED BY BETWAY
oiler
Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman
Kostin-RNH-Janmark
Fogele-McLeod-Puljujarvi
Holloway-Ryan
Nurse – Ceci
Kulak-Barrie
Broberg-Bouchard
Desharnais
Skinner
Canadian
Pitlick-Suzuki-Anderson
Dadonow-Roof-Hoffmann
Wideman-Devorak-Ylonen
Pezzetta-Belzile-Harvey-Pinard
Xhekaj-Savard
Matheson—Baron
Harris-Kovacevic
everyone
As a lifelong Oilers fan, I truly appreciate the heartache that Habs fans must be feeling these days after their trip to the Stanley Cup Finals was followed by nothing but disaster a few years ago. However, I also see the Habs as a team that the Oilers should beat more often than not
Holland’s plan seems to be to only overwhelm the opponent offensively and not to worry about defensive problems. That strategy has worked out well enough as his slightly underperforming defensive team has a 30-18-5 record, but the regular season wasn’t the problem for Edmonton, rather the early post-season exit.
There has been an improvement in goal. Stuart Skinner was only supposed to be a replacement for Jack Campbell, who signed a five-year deal with the Oilers beginning this year, but Skinner has just returned to the team after an appearance at the All-Star Game after a strong start to his rookie campaign. Skinner keeps opponents under three goals a game, and considering Connor McDavid is helping the team score about two a night (he has 97 points in 53 games, nearly 20 points clear of teammate Leon Draisaitl in the Art Ross race), that performance should be enough for Edmonton to win the vast majority of games. Whether the goaltender can maintain that game in his first NHL postseason — and whether his coach is comfortable with those starts for a 24-year-old — is another question.
You see Samuel Montembeault making a cameo in the list above as his play shows up in such metrics that take into account the quality of shots taken. He earned his 11th win of the season yesterday to beat a personal record .500 and now hands over the crease to his partner for the back-to-back.
Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk
Matchday Prediction: The Oilers close out the weekend with a great 4-2 win, sending the boys in a celebratory mood to their Super Bowl bash.
Obvious Matchday Prediction: Another day means another goal from Connor McDavid will be on the scoresheet as he works towards the first 50-goal season of his career.
Not-So-Obvious Matchday Prediction: Not only will the Oilers’ PK kill anything the Habs throw in their way, but Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will also grab another shortie in the process.