Ukraine Latest: Biden Back in Poland After Surprise Kyiv Trip

(Bloomberg) — US President Joe Biden made a surprise trip to Kyiv to meet his counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the highest-profile visit since Russia invaded and a strong show of support for Ukraine before the war’s one-year mark on Friday.

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Distroscale

Biden said his goal was to reaffirm his administration’s “unwavering and unflagging commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.” Zelenskiy called the visit — the first by a US president in 15 years — “historic, timely and brave.” The US also announced a package of $460 million in additional weapons for Ukraine that crucially includes 155mm artillery rounds and rockets for the powerful HIMARS missile system.

Biden arrived in Ukraine by train from neighboring Poland. After spending five hours in Kyiv, he boarded the same train for the journey back, crossing back into Poland shortly after 8 p.m. local time, according to a White House pool report. Biden in Poland will meet with Eastern European leaders and is scheduled to deliver an address on Tuesday night. 

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Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, earlier said that he told China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, during talks in Munich at the weekend that the bloc has “strong concern” about Beijing supplying weapons to Russia and if China armed Kremlin forces that would be a “red line.”

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.)

Key Developments

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On the Ground

Russia conducted 10 missile strikes and 25 air attacks over the past day and launched 62 barrages from multiple-launch rocket systems, Ukraine’s General Staff said on Facebook. According to its statement, Ukrainian troops repelled assaults near seven settlements in the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions. Russia may lack sufficient reserves to “dramatically increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter,” analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in their latest report.

(All times CET)

Germany Tells China It Can’t Arm Russia (5:40 p.m.)

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said she made clear to China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, that as a permanent member of the UN security council, Beijing is also responsible for the preservation of global peace.

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“That, of course, also means that China may not send any weapons, including dual-use goods, to Russia,” Baerbock said after the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels.

Next Ramstein Meeting Planned for Mid-March: Ukrinform (5:35 p.m.)

The Next meeting of Ukraine’s allies at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany to discuss assistance for Ukraine will be in mid-March, most likely in an online format, the Ukrinform newswire reports, citing Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov.

Russian Economy Shrank Less Than Expected (5:13 p.m.)

Russia’s economy contracted 2.1% last year, defying the worst fears of a major recession as surging commodity exports helped offset the impact of US and European sanctions. The preliminary result was better than the 3% decline officials expected as recently as the early fall and far short of the 10% drop some forecasters saw. 

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US to Give $1.1 Billion for Ukrainian, Moldovan Energy (5:12 p.m.)

The US will provide $1.1 billion to support the power networks of Ukraine and Moldova, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Telegram. Moldova suffered power outages following Russian strikes on the Ukrainian energy grid.

Rheinmetall Eyes Boosting Ammo Output for Ukraine (4:55 p.m.)

German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has doubled the output of ammunition in recent months at its factory near Hamburg, Chief Executive Officer Armin Papperger said, after meeting with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to discuss ways to further increase production for Ukraine. 

“We are running at full steam here,” Papperger said. “And we can increase capacity even further with another shift.”

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US Announces $460 Million in Weapons Aid (4:45 p.m.)

The Department of Defense announced the US would provide Ukraine with weapons from existing stockpiles including ammunition for NATO-standard 155mm howitzers and HIMARS multiple rocket launch systems.

The package also includes more Javelin anti-armor systems and about 2,000 rockets, mortar rounds, air surveillance radars, four Bradley Infantry Fire Support Team vehicles, night-vision devices and other gear.

Dutch Envoy Compares Ukraine to Nine-Year Soviet Afghan War (16:43 p.m.)

Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra drew on the example of the Soviet Union’s nine-year war in Afghanistan as a potential outlook for Russia’s invasion of in Ukraine. 

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“Make no mistake: we might well be nowhere near the end,” Hoekstra said in a speech to students in Bruges, Belgium. “In fact, no one knows, but we may not even be halfway there.” He lamented that some countries have talked about holding on to their own weapons rather than supplying them to Ukraine.

Poland Adds Curbs on Freight Traffic With Belarus (4:40 p.m.)

Poland banned all cargo vehicles registered outside the European Union and its free-trade zone from crossing its border with Belarus from Tuesday, further tightening tit-for-tat restrictions on road transportation between the two neighbors. 

Passenger traffic will be limited to a single checkpoint on the 400-kilometer (250-mile) border, Poland’s Interior Ministry said.

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Poland Closes Belarus Border Crossing Over Jailed Journalist

White House Hails ‘Historic’ Biden Visit to Kyiv (2:15 p.m.)

Biden aides hailed the visit to Kyiv as historic, saying it’s unprecedented in modern times to have the US president travel to a war zone where the US military doesn’t control critical infrastructure. The White House declined to provide details of exactly how he got to Kyiv and how he is now traveling to Warsaw from there until it’s safe to do so.

Biden’s traveling party was extremely small and consisted of a few aides, a photographer and a small medical team. The visit was meticulously planned over months and the president made the final decision to go on Friday when he huddled with key advisers in the Oval Office.

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The White House notified Moscow of Biden’s trip a few hours before his departure, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said. He declined to say how the Russians responded.

EU Mulls Powers to Punish Sanctions Evaders (1:45 p.m.)

A group of European Union member states is pushing for the bloc to ramp up its ability to hit back against those helping Russia circumvent sanctions, including through the use of trade measures.

The new powers may include issuing warnings to people or companies outside and in the EU that are helping Russia get around sanctions and giving the bloc the ability to act where this relates to products used against Ukraine in battle, according to a draft of the proposal seen by Bloomberg.

Russia Puts War-Tested Weapons on Sale in UAE (1 p.m.)

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Russian defense companies were out in force at an arms fair in the United Arab Emirates despite international sanctions, pitching to sell weapons that a top ally of President Vladimir Putin said had been battle-tested in the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

More than 200 Russian weapons ranging from tanks to air-defense systems and ammunition were on show Monday at the IDEX exhibition in Abu Dhabi, the region’s biggest defense and security fair, according to the manufacturers.

Ukraine Expects to Start Meetings With IMF (12 p.m.)

Ukraine expects to begin preparatory meetings with International Monetary Fund officials on a full loan program in coming weeks, Deputy Ukrainian Central Bank Governor Serhiy Nikolaychuk said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

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The fund is exploring a multiyear aid package for Ukraine worth as much as $16 billion to help cover the country’s needs and provide a catalyst for more international funding while Kyiv tries to repel Russian forces, Bloomberg reported last month.

Support for Ukraine ‘Will Endure’: Biden (11:15 a.m.)

In a series of tweets, Biden said that Putin was “dead wrong” when he assumed that “Ukraine was weak and the West was divided.”

“Over the last year, the United States has built a coalition of nations from the Atlantic to the Pacific to help defend Ukraine with unprecedented military, economic, and humanitarian support – and that support will endure,” Biden added.

He also announced another donation of equipment worth $500 million, “including artillery ammunition, anti-armor systems and air surveillance radars to help protect the Ukrainian people from aerial bombardments,” as well as “additional sanctions against elites and companies that are trying to evade or backfill Russia’s war machine.”

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EU ‘Will Remain Vigilant’ on China (11 a.m.)

Borrell told reporters in Brussels ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers that Wang told him that China was not planning to arm Russia but said that the bloc “will remain vigilant.” Putin may meet with Wang when he visits Moscow this week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to Tass.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday warned China against supporting Russia’s war effort, saying Washington had evidence it may be considering providing weapons. The government in Beijing won’t accept any finger-pointing from the US over its relations with Moscow, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Monday at a regular press briefing.

Kremlin Says Relations With Moldova ‘Quite Tense’ (10:50 a.m.)

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Relations between the governments in Moscow and Chisinau are “quite tense,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, warning Moldovan authorities to be “very, very cautious” about making any statements on the future of Russian peacekeepers in the breakaway Transnistria region, Tass reported.

Peskov was responding to comments by Moldova’s new prime minister, Dorin Recean, on the need to demilitarize the region, which borders Ukraine, and withdraw Russian forces. Moldovan authorities have warned that Russia is seeking to destabilize the country, a charge Moscow rejects.

Zelenskiy Urges China to Remain ‘Pragmatic’ (8 a.m.)

Zelenskiy said he has directly appealed to China not to support Russia’s war and called on Beijing to maintain a “pragmatic attitude” and help avert a wider global conflict.

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“Our relationship with China has always been very good, we have had intense economic relations for many years, and it is in everyone’s interest that they do not change,” Zelenskiy was quoted as saying in Italian newspapers.

Ukraine ‘Won’t Defend Bakhmut at Any Cost’ (8 a.m.)

Zelenskiy said that while it was important for Ukraine to defend the eastern city of Bakhmut, where there has been fierce fighting, it would not do so “at any cost and with everyone dying.”

“We will fight as long as it is reasonable,” he told Italian papers. Russia will likely claim it has captured Bakhmut to coincide with Friday’s one-year mark since the invasion regardless of the reality on the ground, according to the UK Defense Ministry’s latest intelligence update.

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EU ‘Could Move Fast on China Sanctions’ (8 a.m.)

The EU could quickly move to sanction China if it turned out Beijing was supporting Russia’s war effort, according to Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn.

“I hope it doesn’t come to that,” Asselborn said in an interview with Germany’s Deutschlandfunk radio ahead of talks with EU counterparts in Brussels Monday. “It would be a dramatic change and would obviously have consequences for our entire relationship with China, not just for Germany but for the whole EU,” he added.

The credibility of the peace proposals China has said it will present this week would be destroyed if it turned out Beijing was helping Russia, Asselborn said.