Bustin’ Out predictions, AL East: Clarke Schmidt seizes opportunity in Yankees rotation

One of the best parts of any baseball season is watching the players exceed expectations. These are the guys who, for whatever reason – injuries, youth, lack of opportunities – haven’t been able to fulfill their potential.

Until they do.

Think back to last year. Who would have thought that Andrés Giménez would come sixth in the AL MVP voting? And who knew Spencer Strider would deliver one of the best strikeout seasons ever from a right-handed pitcher? Who knew Nestor Cortes would become one of the most reliable starters of the greats? You probably don’t. But here’s a bet that Andrés, Spencer, and Nestor knew what they were capable of.

MORE: Bustin’ Out Predictions, NL East | Odds for the 2023 World Series

So we’re going to focus on the majors, looking for one player from each team capable of, as they say, becoming a star — or a bigger star — in 2023.

Today: The American League East.

Yankees: Clarke Schmidt

A month ago, Schmidt appeared destined for another year in a hybrid role, and that wouldn’t have been a bad thing for the Yankees had he done as well as he did when he got the chance — 3.12 ERA in 26 relief appearances and three starts. But now starter Frankie Montas is out after shoulder surgery, meaning there is an available spot in the rotation. It’s not given to Schmidt, but there’s plenty of reason to believe he could not only win the job, but thrive in the role.

Schmidt made eight Triple-A starts last year with a 3.27 ERA, but more impressive were the 12.5K/9 and 5.11K/BB ratios. And on the advice of the Yankees, Schmidt spent the winter adding a cutter to his mix, specifically to deal with left-handers who gave him problems in the bigs. Spring reviews were very encouraging. Even if he doesn’t fully master it right away, having it available only to left-handed players is an advantage.

Rays: Wander Franco

The hype surrounding Franco reached slightly insane levels early in the 2022 season as he had a stellar debut year – 3.5 bWAR in 70 games with 127 OPS+. But that MVP season never quite materialized, with a few different injuries and inconsistencies when he was healthy. But, folks, he turns 22 on March 1st. That’s it. And in his two partial seasons in the Bigs — 70 games in 2021, 83 in 2022 — he has a 6.1 bWAR. Don’t be at all surprised if he hits that number again, but in a season that’s totaled 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases.

Orioles: Gunnar Henderson

I know, I know. A way to get on your feet and vote No. 1 in all of baseball. bold choice. The truth is, however, that the surprise Orioles 2022 consisted almost entirely of players who retired, from Adleyrutschman (runner-up in AL ROY voting) to Jorge Mateo (AL-best 35 stolen bases) to Felix Bautista (2.19 ERA, 15-of 17 in saves) to Cionel Perez (1.40 ERA in 66 appearances) to Dean Kremer (3.23 ERA in 125 1/3 innings) and the list goes on. So the choices are a bit limited, and Henderson’s potential is a bit ridiculous.

Henderson started last year with 47 games in Double-A and then played 65 in Triple-A. In those 112 contests combined, he hit 19 home runs, 22 stolen bases, a .416 percentage on base and a .946 OPS. He made his big league debut on the last day of August and had a solid first month up in the bigs, with 123 OPS+, with four homers, 18 RBIs and seven doubles in 34 games. He’ll be the starter from the start this year and it’s exciting to see what he’ll be able to do over a full season in the same place.

MORE PREDICTIONS: Optimistic look at every AL team | Optimistic look at any NL team

Blue Jay: Otto Lopez

Lopez is exactly the type of young player who could thrive in 2023 in the role of the Blue Jays’ “unsung hero”. And yes, maybe it’s weird to say that a player will “break out” and be an “unsung hero”. but i don’t know it works. He’ll have a hard time getting into the starting lineup alone — the Jays have Bo Bichette at shortstop, Whit Merrifield at second base, Matt Chapman at third base, and George Springer, Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermeier in outfield. And yes, Lopez plays all six of those positions — at least nine starts on each of them in the minor — but that might make him the perfect piece in the Blue Jays’ puzzle.

Lopez plays six positions, but mainly four: SS, 2B, CF, LF. This brings immediate added value. And he doesn’t seem bothered by the big league spotlight; Lopez made 10 plate appearances with the majors last year and reached base seven times, over six hits and one walk. Of course, that doesn’t mean he’ll be hitting .667 all year, but if you’re feeling overwhelmed at a certain level, don’t go 6-on-9. In 426 career minor league games, he has a .305 average and a .377 base percentage, with 77 stolen bases. Last year, in 91 Triple-A games, his OBP was .378. Lopez plays with Canada in the WBC, and that experience could be a stepping stone into his first full season with a Jays team in a bid to contend for the AL East title.

Red Sox: Triston Casas

The Boston lineup is full of “well, hopefully…” strangers. Well, hopefully Enrique Hernandez will be able to play shortstop full-time for the first time in his season at the age of 31 for the first time in his career. Well, hopefully Reese McGuire is ready to be a start catcher. Well, hopefully Masataka Yoshida is worth the contract the Red Sox gave him and not what most expected of him. Well, hopefully Justin Turner has another good offensive year in the tank at 38.

And so compared to some of those situations, the “well, hopefully Triston Casas is ready for a steady diet of big league pitching” doesn’t seem so bad. Casas, who generally ranks in the 20s and 30s in prospect rankings, got his first taste of the majors last year with 27 games. Batting average wasn’t great – only .197 – but that’s probably just another example of why batting average isn’t a great metric. In his 95 plate appearances, he has had nearly as many walks (19) as strikeouts (23) and has hit five home runs with a .358 percentage on base.