Bucks vs. Heat: Best Same Game Parlay picks & player prop bets for Friday’s Eastern Conference showdown
With All-Star Weekend in the rearview mirror, the NBA picked up steam again on Thursday and made for some incredibly entertaining games. The association has eight more contests scheduled for Friday night, including Bucks-Heat in a marquee showdown of Eastern Conference powerhouses (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN). With or without Giannis Antetokounmpo – who is questionable with a right wrist sprain – this should be a great game. Oddsmakers agree, listing Milwaukee as an easy road favorite at -1. Since all eyes will be on this game, we decided to locate our favorite player props listed for it on Caesars Sportsbook and put them together in a Same Game Parlay.
The Bucks (41-17) are riding a 12-game winning streak and are shooting at the top-seeded Celtics (43-17), who lead the conference by a game. Dominant on defense and on the glass, Milwaukee maintained a 109.6 defensive rating (second best behind Cleveland’s 109.5) and a league-leading 37.6 defensive rebound rating per game. Mike Budenholzer’s side were a beast at home too, their 24-5 record at the Fiserv Forum tying with Memphis for the second-best home record behind the Nuggets (27-4). And the Bucks were the most reliable chalk, scoring the NBA’s best at 37-9 when favored (80.4% coverage ratio).
Meanwhile, the Heat (32-27) have weathered some bumps along the way but still hold the 10th best record in the NBA. “Heat Culture” remains a thing under Erik Spoelstra, with All-Star Bam Adebayo and clutch kings Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro at the helm. Still doing lots of small things that add up to big wins, Miami leads the league in free throw shooting (82.8%), two-point field goals allowed (26.4 per game), and opposing offensive rebounds (8.6 per game). They also care about the ball and don’t commit stupid fouls.
Oddsmakers are right to narrow the line for this game as the Bucks are sizzle, but the Heat have won each of their last two meetings with Milwaukee when Giannis was sidelined (Jan. 12 and Jan. 14). Miami always seems to be on the gas in the home stretch of the playoff push, and the recent addition of Kevin Love via the buyout market should only improve his chances of a strong run.
Speaking of strong runs, Sporting News Betting has been on a heater lately. The NFL Playoffs and the Super Bowl were pretty lucrative for us, as was the NBA All-Star Game. And our first same game parlay in a while – for Lakers vs. Warriors on Thursday night – resulted in another big win. Check out our hits from last night:
| bet/prop | opportunities | Result |
| Alternative spread: Lakers -1.5 | -214 | LA 124-111 |
| Anthony Davis records a double-double | -254 | 12 points/12 reps |
| Kevon Looney has over 10.5 rebounds | +102 | 15 repetitions |
| Jarred Vanderbilt scores less than 7.5 points | -115 | 4 pts |
Overall odds (4 legs): +675 | Stake: $130 | Win Amount: $1,007.50
It’s a very good way of getting our SGP column going again, if I do say so myself. Tonight we’re going to take the blueprint from this parlay and basically transfer it to Bucks-Heat, with four very similar legs and a virtually identical potential payout. Let’s get down to business and continue that winning streak like Milwaukee will hope tonight!
Heat at Bucks: Best Bets, Same Game Parlay
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
| bet/prop | opportunities |
| Alternate Spread: Heat +5.5 | -194 |
| Bam Adebayo records a double-double | -184 |
| Jimmy Butler has over 5.5 assists | +123 |
| Brook Lopez has over 20.5 points + rebounds | -111 |
Total combination odds (4 legs): +850 | Stake: $106 | Payout: $1,007
Alternate Spread: Heat +5.5 (-194)
We understand why people would be reluctant to bet on Heat in this game — as I said, Milwaukee has won 12 straight games and has a 24-5 record at home. But the average record of teams that have beaten the Bucks at home without Giannis is just 26-34, just a .433 win ratio. This Heat roster is the best team Milwaukee has faced all season without their superstar at Fiserv, and as we know Miami already won two games against the Greek Freak-less Bucks in January. Even with All-Star Jrue Holiday pulling off another jewel performance in what is arguably the best season of his career — and Brook Lopez is shining defensively like he’s been all season — we still can’t imagine this game being a smash in favor of Cream City. Buying Miami 4.5 points gives us road insurance without taking too much juice.
Bam Adebayo scores a double-double (-184)
Adebayo has been a standout this season, an easy pick for his second All-Star Game. He averages 21.6 points and 10.0 rebounds per game and has hit double-doubles in 19 of his last 32 games, dating back to December 6. He recorded 16 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists when Miami last faced Milwaukee on Feb. 6, and also had double-doubles in each of the Bucks’ January wins against Milwaukee when Giannis was out (20 points/13 rebounds on 01/14). ., 24 points/12 rebounds on January 12th). In each of those two January tilts, he cleared double digits on the glass only on the defensive side — likely thanks to the fact that Brook Lopez spends most of his time outside of three-point arcs on offense and rarely tumbles the offensive boards. Bam’s five combined offensive boards in those two games serve as the icing on the cake – no one can handle him inside as Giannis and Bobby Portis are both outside. Double-digit points are a layup at this point — Bam has 10+ goals in all 54 games he’s played this season — but double-digit rebounds against an understaffed front seat also feels like a suspension.
Jimmy Butler has 5.5+ assists (+123)
Yesterday we got Plus Odds for Kevon Looney’s 10.5-plus rebounds, and he smashed the props out of the park with a whopping 15 boards. We’re equally confident Butler has a good shot at six assists tonight as his game has been stellar since Erik Spoelstra decided to break away from struggling veteran point guard Kyle Lowry. In the last five games that Lowry has been listed as “inactive,” Butler has averaged 6.2 assists. With Gabe Vincent being more of a point guard than a playmaker, Jimmy Buckets is largely taking on the role of creator for Miami — much like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George often do for the Clippers and DeMar DeRozan for the Bulls. He still activates his clutch gene and turns it on as a shotmaker when needed late in games, but we’re not seeing nearly the full game shot volume that we used to see from the four-time All-NBA selection (he has exceeded 18 shot attempts only once since January 9). Butler lost 32 points to the Bucks when those teams last faced off earlier this month. So expect the Bucks to put the pressure on him and release open shooters to find via the pass. We’d be all over this prop if we were you.
Brook Lopez records over 20.5 points + rebounds (-111)
I’m with Stan Van Gundy – Brook Lopez deserves every credit he gets from oddsmakers who listed him as a top contender for Defensive Player of the Year. What BroLo brings to this Bucks team can’t be measured solely by stats — he’s a great leader, an impressive and widely respected presence at depth, and the three-point range he’s developed over the years Mike Budenholzer’s pace-and-space attack system works wonders. But let’s face it, Lopez has looked like an All-Star in the games that Giannis, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and/or Bobby Portis missed this season. Specifically for this drill, let’s look at the Veteran Center numbers in the games Giannis missed (including the Bucks’ last game before the All-Star break, in which Giannis only lasted nine minutes due to his wrist injury):
| Date | Points | rebounds | blocks | assists |
| 11/5 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 11/9 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 1 |
| 11.11 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 12/3 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 12/17 | 18 | 8th | 3 | 1 |
| 1/1 | 8th | 10 | 1 | 0 |
| 1/12 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 1/14 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1/16 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| 1/17 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 1/21 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| 2/16 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Average: | 17.3 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
Obviously I didn’t need to include the blocks and assists numbers in this chart, but let’s just say I’ve become a bit of a BroLo, bro. The guy is great! And if we only need 20.5 combined points and rebounds tonight, we’re pretty satisfied to know he’s averaging 23.1 without his two-time MVP teammate on the floor. This is another easy addition to a four-legged parlay that we consider a solid Friday night bet. Good luck and have fun!