Poilievre’s Conservatives lead Liberals in Nanos’ latest seat projections

According to Nanos Research’s weekly tracking, federal Liberals and Conservatives were often neck and neck when it came to supporting elections last year. But the Conservatives have a clear advantage when poll data is modeled to show which party is currently capable of winning more seats in an election.

If federal elections were held today, the Conservative Party is expected to win 112 seats in the lower house, seven seats since Nanos last forecast in February. The Liberal Party, meanwhile, would gain 96 seats after losing 22 seats since February, according to Nanos Research’s latest seat forecasts.

Though federal elections are unlikely to be held anytime soon due to a confidence and supply deal between the Liberals and the NDP, seat forecasts show voter preferences across the country are shifting.

“There’s actually a lot of movement that’s taken place,” Nanos Research chairman Nik Nanos said on the latest episode of CTV News’ Trend Line podcast.

“In the last election, the Liberals lost the popular vote but won more seats than the Conservatives because of those big Conservative victories in the West and those thin Liberal victories in many parts of the country.”

But now, Nanos said, support for the Liberals is beginning to wane in provinces like Quebec, where seat forecasts show the Bloc Quebecois gaining momentum, and Ontario, where the NDP is doing the same.

Nanos forecasts show that since February the Conservatives have lost a handful of seats in the Prairies and Quebec but gained 11 in British Columbia and the North.

Nano’s seat advantage from riding (Nanos Research)

Nanos added that there are 77 ridings too close to call.

“But what we’re seeing here is that the old math that helped the Liberals is starting to unravel,” he said, “and right now the Conservatives have the upper hand in terms of the projected number of seats we can declare Winners because they win by more than seven percent.”

Currently, the minority Liberals have 157 seats in the House of Commons, while the Conservatives have 121 seats. There are 338 seats in the House of Commons, with 170 seats needed for a party to form a majority.

Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also use our audio player below or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode will be out on Wednesday the 15th.