Will high-flying Fulham fall out of European football contention?

That was certainly the case for Fulham, which should not be taken as a demeaning observation as they finished a high seventh in the Premier League table and progressed to the FA Cup quarter-finals midweek, beating almost all expectations as we reach March .

Indeed, Tuesday’s 2-0 win over Leeds encompasses precisely the breaks a summer contender needs to achieve such considerable success, a microcosm of his 2022/23 season.

Leeds missed numerous scoring chances without too much punishment against a Fulham defense that shared the same weaknesses earlier in the season.

Fulham actually had the highest expected goals against (xGA) in the league ahead of the World Cup, conceding 32.2 xGA in 15 games – a whopping 4.3 xGA more than any other team at the time.

The 26 actual goals conceded from such chances were a great help in close-decided games, a good explanation for their seventh-place finish at the break despite only finishing 14th on the expected points table.

Of course factors like the score will affect the numbers but it was obvious that Fulham were a little lucky not to concede more.

Boss Marco Silva, who was nominated for February’s manager of the month, acknowledged the weakness and made efforts to strengthen his team at the back.

In his favor, the Cottagers have been in their 10 Premier League games since, allowing 14.0 xGA.

As strange and unpredictable as the world of sport is, Fulham have surpassed those metrics at an even higher level than they did before the World Cup, conceding just five goals in their last 10.

The 20 points out of a possible 30 allowed Silva’s team to remain in seventh place.

Improved defensive numbers have of course affected their attacking process, with both xG trendlines intertwining and dipping a bit lately.

Fulham’s expected goals for (xGF) per match average are down from 1.57 before the break to 1.22 since the Boxing Day restart, which brings us nicely back to the microcosm of what was their FA Cup fifth round win.

Another variable that can lead to overachievement is placing low-probability opportunities at opportune moments.

Manor Solomon can attest to that with his recent rise to fame, which sealed Fulham’s rise with a fourth spectacular goal in as many games against Leeds last Tuesday.

In the previous three Premier League games Solomon scored from unlikely places – 0.25 xG against Forest, 0.05 against Brighton and 0.03 xG against wolves – earned his team points in unconvincing performances.

This should not diminish their success either.

Recruitment has to be excellent, especially for a newly promoted club, and it was. João Palhinha was a revelation as a midfield destroyer, while Andreas Pereira and Willian were excellent additions. Just another of the many variables required to run well.

Fulham should be proud that they are playing at a solid Premier League level, but the Cottagers need to keep improving if they are to maintain positive results and stay in contention for Europe.

Unfortunately for Fulham, they are the best candidates for regression.

Bookmakers are clearly in agreement that Fulham will end up outside the Premier League top six at a price of 1/66 and Sky Bet.

However, should they suffer the expected relapse over the course of the next 13 games, Silva and his side deserve credit for completely avoiding the wide-open relegation battle on their return to the top flight.

Fulham’s 2-0 FA Cup win over Leeds showed all the weaknesses that could have hurt Fulham this season. And yet they advanced.

They need to progress as a team to repeat the feat next season, but overachieving this season is an incredible base to build on.

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