PLAYERS Championship 2023: PGA expert betting predictions

There are a few things I can share about the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass that others will not mention in the PLAYERS Championship betting previews. The first key is that I write this in the media center at the PLAYERS. I ran across the grounds and the practice tee. For the fourth straight week, I’ll be there to cover the PGA TOUR from a betting perspective. Watching week after week makes a big difference.

I also played the Stadium Course several times. Whether you’re a fan of Pete Dye’s designs or not, there’s no denying the amazing mix of risk and reward this golf course offers these players. From the first tee to the infamous island 17, this par-72 layout stretches for 7,275 yards. The field of 144 players will be in contention for more than one of golf’s most prestigious titles this week, with $25 million in prize money and $4.5 million for first place.

Players Championship 2023: Course layout and past tournament information

23 of the top 25 and 69 of the top 100 are here to compete for golf’s fifth Major. Unlike last year, the weather will play a supporting role for the golfers. Seasonal temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70’s with relatively calm coastal breezes (12-15 mph). TPC Sawgrass is located just over a mile from the Atlantic Ocean. A little rain is expected Friday night, but with sub-air systems under the greens, I expect the course will play exactly how the PGA TOUR wants it to play this week.

Designing a blueprint to take on Dye’s devilish design requires all of this inside knowledge. TV just doesn’t give you an accurate representation of the layout. Small details like the size of the 17th green, quirky approach angles on the long par 4s and most importantly the pitfalls that exist around these green complexes need to be experienced first hand. When Julie Andrews sang that the hills were alive, she was referring to Pete’s penchant for uneven lies around each of those holes.

Like so many PGA TOUR events, this tournament has seen some changes over the years. Pay particular attention to the fact that 2007-2018 PLAYERS was held in May. With much firmer conditions, Bermudagrass greens and rough, the course was different. Stay with the last three issues for a more accurate example of how this year will unfold.

As of 2019, the average odds are +2000 (20-1). McIlroy, Thomas and Smith were the winners, but what about the guys who finished just behind them? Jim Furyk, Lee Westwood and Anirban Lahiri were the respective runners-up. This contrasting perspective explains the essence of this event. I believe that an elite player will get the Golden Man trophy on Sunday, but to successfully bet on the field there are many ways.

Let’s take a look at the Players Championship 2023 odds board for this weekend.

Players Championship 2023: Full odds of winning

Jon Rahm +850

Rory McIlroy +850

Scottie Scheffler +1000

Patrick Cantlay +1900

Max Homa +1900

JustinThomas +1900

Xander Shovel +2500

Viktor Hovland +2700

Tony Finau +2800

Collin Morikawa +2800

Becomes Zalatoris +3200

Jordan Spieth +3200

Matt Fitzpatrick +3400

Tyrell Hatton +3400

Cameron Young +3600

Jason Day +3600

Sungjae Im +3700

Joohyung Kim +4100

Shane Lowry +4800

Keegan Bradley +5000

Rickie Fowler +5000

Keith Mitchell +5500

Corey Conner’s +6500

Si Woo Kim +7000

Sam Burns +7000

Sahith Theegala +7000

Chris Kirk +7500

Tommy Fleetwood +8500

Hideki Matsuyama +8500

Kurt Kitayama +9000

JustinRose +10000

Adam Scott +10000

TomHoge+10000

Francesco Molinari +10000

Harris English +10000

Webb Simpson +14000

Aaron Wise +14000

Brian Harman +15000

Wyndham Clark +15000

Seamus Power +15000

Russell Henley +15000

Gary Woodland +17000

Alex Noren +17000

Billy Horschel +18000

Ryan Fox +18000

Davis Riley +18000

Taylor Montgomery +18000

Sepp Straka +19000

Adam Hadwin +19000

Min Woo Lee +19000

Maverick McNealy +21000

Patton Kizzire +21000

Justin Suh +21000

Taylor Pendrith +22000

KH Lee +23000

Luke Herbert +23000

Danny Willett +23000

Players Championship 2023: Winning Trends

Along with my best bets, consider these five traits this week when it comes to making winning bets.

1. Twelve of the holes at TPC Sawgrass have a bogey rate in excess of 15%. The best in this area for bogey avoidance are Jason Day, Scottie Scheffler and Si Woo Kim. Sounds like three good picks, two of which have won here before.
2. Ten of the holes have a yardie rate of over 15%. With four par 5s and two short par 4s, making birdies is a big part of winning here. Nobody does more touring than Jon Rahm, Max Homa and Rory McIlroy (three of this week’s favorites).
3. Four of the toughest five par-to-par holes on the course are par-4s. Carefully calculate who can win against the field in par 4 scoring. Another short list of household names, Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Jason Day and Patrick Cantlay are the best.
4. Short game plays an intense role around the Stadium Course. Combine shots gained on putting and around the green and you get an analysis called Strokes Gained Short Game (SG:SG). Dye’s course will continually challenge both of these aspects of your game. Here is the best in this field when it comes to getting a passing grade; Maverick McNealy, Jason Day and Jon Rahm.
5. To make more birdies, you need to create opportunities. Chances won is a measure of how many times you hit the ball within ten yards. With a wedge in hand on the approach a third of the time the proximity to the hole really differs. Watch out for these four players’ radar-like approaches as they lead the field in generating birdie chances. Cameron Young, Tony Finau, Rory McIlroy, and Kurt Kitayama.

In keeping with these unique points of PLAYER differentiation, don’t ignore the flatstick this week. Similar to Bay Hill and the API, making putts all week is how you fight. From 2019 to 2022, winners shot more off-court from the greens than from the tee and around the green combined.

Best bet to win: Jordan Spieth (+4100 on FanDuel)

Winners surrounding TPC Sawgrass are of great caliber. Seven of the last 10 winners have at least one of golf’s holy grails. My choice to win the PLAYERS has three of them. Jordan Spieth hits the golf ball better than ever in his career. The media slanders his putting, but when it comes to big stages, Spieth shows up. Since we can’t win much money at the top of the board, I love Jordan’s win rate in elite events and those odds.

Best bet for a top 10 finish: Scottie Scheffler (+125 on FanDuel)

While others focus on Rory and Rahm, I’m betting on Scottie Scheffler for some placement money. Five wins last year and he finishes a disappointing fourth place at API. He has finished no worse than 12th in five starts this season.

Best Top 40 Bet: Davis Riley (+210 on FanDuel)

Another placement bet I’m loving this week after running the practice tee is Davis Riley. Last year’s young superstar won over eight shots against the field on a very difficult course at Bay Hill. He finished eighth, winning via one approach shot and over five putter strokes. A perfect mix for Pete’s Place.

Best Head-to-Head Matchup: Chris Kirk over Sam Burns (-115 on PointsBet)

Matchups make money. At Read The Line, not only have we predicted two outrights (Chris Kirk and Jin Young Ko) in the past two weeks, we have a 55% lifetime success rate on all H2Hs. My trick is to look locally for players working on their game. Chris Kirk has one win and two third places this year. Sam Burns has lost 11 strokes down the field in his last two starts.

If you didn’t read Read The Line this week, you missed out on another win. Jin Young Ko got our first LPGA win in 2023. We’ve had a return of +5000 (50-1) in the last two weeks!

For a full list of my LPGA and PGA TOUR betting predictions, standings, H2H matches, one-and-done picks, and DFS recommendations, visit read the line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the premier golf betting information service headed by five-time PGA award winning professional Keith Stewart. Covering the LPGA and PGA Tour, Read The Line will increase your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.