Joe Burrow contract projection: What to know about Bengals QB’s possible extension, timelines and figures
It’s only a matter of time before Joe Burrow’s name makes the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback list. It might even be at the top of the list.
The Bengals quarterback is eligible for an overtime this offseason and it is widely expected that Cincinnati will retain the first overall pick of 2020, which led the franchise to only its third Super Bowl appearance and which included both the team’s passing yardage in has set touchdown records a season as well.
Owned by the Brown family since its inception, the team has never shied away from giving quarterbacks market-defining contracts. In 1990, Boomer Esiason became the second highest-paid player in the NFL on a six-year, $16.75 million contract. Carson Palmer was handed a huge extension that could net him $118.75 million over nine years, and Andy Dalton was signed back in 2014 to a six-year, $115 million extension.
Since tearing his cruciate ligament in his rookie season, Burrow has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Over the past two seasons, only Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Justin Herbert have more passing yards than Burrows’ 9,086, and Mahomes and Josh Allen are the only players with more passing touchdowns than Burrows’ 69. Among quarterbacks with at least 30 starts, nobody has passed with them at a higher rate than Burrow’s 69.3 percent clip.
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What will Burrow’s contract look like and when could it be finalized? Here’s what you need to know.
Joe Burrow contract projection
Quarterbacks have already landed some big deals in 2023. That offseason, Geno Smith was signed to a three-year, $105 million contract and Daniel Jones signed a four-year, $160 million deal. While neither contract will directly impact Burrow, both reflect just how much the quarterback market has escalated.
Burrow could end up rebuilding the quarterback contract market. Yahoo Sports insider Charles Robinson predicted Burrow will be paid between $55 million and $60 million a year, which would make him the league’s highest-paid quarterback.
Back on Feb. 8, salary cap expert Andre Perrotta suggested Burrow would be given an eight-year, $408 million deal, with more than $142 million fully guaranteed at signing and over $240 million at signing Total warranties included. The deal would net him a $60 million signing bonus and an average annual value of $51 million.
Until the pen is put to paper, there’s no telling what the numbers will look like. There was hopeful optimism among some that Burrow might try to take less-than-market value money to take on guns like Tee Higgins, who’s a free agent after the 2023 season, and Ja’Marr Chase, who can hit free agency after that keep the 2026 campaign.
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Count Chase among those expecting Burrow to work out a team-friendly deal to keep his star receivers around.
“At the end of the day, I don’t think Joe is really too worried about how much money he’s going to make because he’s already making a tremendous amount.” Chase said before the Super Bowl. “But it will work by itself. Everything will work. I think Joe knows what he wants and how he wants to set up his contract to keep some of his guns with him. And I think that’s the biggest part for him.”
Cincinnati’s director of player staff Duke Tobin told The Athletic that Burrow is aware of how his contract will impact the rest of the team.
“I think Joe understands it better than most people,” Tobin said. “That makes him a great player. Joe sees the big picture. Not just after taking the snap from the middle, but as he walks through the dressing room and heads to practice. Training in the off-season. Joe sees the big picture. That makes him great.”
The rest of the NFL world is waiting to see what the deal might look like, but Tobin told The Athletic the deal could be starting to take shape.
“I think we have an idea of what that deal is going to be like,” Tobin said, “whether it’s done or not.”
Timeline of Joe Burrow’s expansion
The Bengals ideally want to have an idea of how much they’ll be paying their quarterback and what his long-term cap hit might look like sooner or later. But that doesn’t mean it will be ready anytime soon.
Though the deal is expected to close this offseason, The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr. reported that the Bengals must have guaranteed money saved in an escrow account to pay for top players like Burrow and potential receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee to pay off Higgins. And if the Bengals wait until after March 31 to settle, they have until March 31, 2024 to have that money in their bank account.
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Talks have continued, Tobin told NFL Combine reporters, and “earlier is better.”
“Maybe it’s the first track that comes out. Maybe it’s the last. But we will work towards it. We will not rush the process,” Tobin said. “It is vital for us. It’s important to Joe and we will work to make it happen.”
Highest Paid NFL Quarterbacks
Burrow is set to become one of the highest-paid quarterbacks, if not the highest-paid in the league.
Here’s a look at some of the other big quarterback contracts in the league.
Patrick Mahomes
Back in September 2020, Mahomes signed an extension that would mean he would be paid $502.631 million over 12 years if all of his incentives paid off. The contract included only $141.428 million in guarantees over the 12 seasons.
The incentives in the deal to reach the full amount include $1.25 million per year starting last season to lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl and $1.25 million for winning the MVP. So far, Mahomes has gotten off to a hot start, having earned his full incentives.
As Mahome’s deal progressed, here’s a look at his cap hits:
| Year | cap hit |
|---|---|
| 2020 | $5.347 million |
| 2021 | $7.433 million |
| 2022 | $35.79 million |
| 2023 | $49.29 million |
| 2024 | $44.29 million |
| 2025 | $46.29 million |
| 2026 | $41.95 million |
| 2027 | $59.95 million |
| 2028 | $44.45 million |
| 2029 | $44.95 million |
| 2030 | $50.45 million |
| 2031 | $52.45 million |
MORE: The NFL’s highest-paid players in 2023
Because of the incentives and length of time, Mahomes’ contract is considered one of the most team-friendly in the league, even if it has the potential to pay him the most of any contract in North American sports history. The contract length means he won’t be able to re-sign even if quarterbacks continue to overtake him in salary, and the heavily incentive-based contract lowers the cap hit.
Deshaun Watson
Much has been made of Watson’s contract, particularly over the stalled renewal negotiations for another AFC North quarterback.
Watson’s deal is definitely not team friendly. He signed a five-year, $230 million, fully guaranteed contract with the Browns. It’s the largest amount of money fully guaranteed in an NFL deal by a substantial margin.
Here’s a look at the cap hits on Watson’s deal:
| Year | cap hit |
|---|---|
| 2022 | $9,395,500 |
| 2023 | $54,993,000 |
| 2024 | $54,993,000 |
| 2025 | $54,993,000 |
| 2026 | $54,993,000 |
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Browns general manager Andrew Berry said it’s possible the team could seek to reshuffle his contract as he would currently claim 24.5 percent of the Browns’ 2023 cap spot. The options for mitigating this cap hit are still limited, either accepting bigger cap hits down the road, adding empty years to his contract, or renewing it and pushing the money further into later years.
Aaron Rodgers
The Green Bay signal caller – who could be on the move soon – has an odd contract that is unlikely to be replicated as Burrow is unlikely to be at any risk of retiring anytime soon.
Rodgers signed a three-year, $150 million extension with a $101.5 million guarantee in March 2022. The deal includes two empty years to peddle the cap hit, meaning his team will be on the hook for some huge sums of money in 2025 and 2026.
| Year | cap hit |
|---|---|
| 2022 | $28,533,569 |
| 2023 | $31,623,568 |
| 2024 | $40,701,666 |
| 2025 | $59,301,666 |
| 2026 | $53,451,666 |
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Like Watson’s deal, Rodgers’ contract is unlikely to be one the Bengals want to use as a model for paying off Burrow. The best comp the team can likely hope for will be Burrow striking a deal similar to Mahomes’, which guarantees he’ll be center stage at Cincinnati for years to come while giving the team plenty of options to expand the Reduce the impact of a large salary cap hit.