#TheHobby Life: A beginner’s guide to numbered cards
When I started with baseball cards, “numbered cards” didn’t exist. Then, in 1991, Donruss introduced the Elite Series, and the fact that a stock card had “only” 10,000 copies made our little heads whirl. It seemed impossible that anyone I really knew would ever get one out of a pack.
And, well, that still hasn’t happened, despite opening more than my fair share of 1991 Donruss boxes over the last few years. The dream isn’t dead yet though. I just opened 3 more packs today hoping for the miracle but oh well. But that’s not what today’s column is about.
MORE: What Will Be Fanatic’s Big Hobby-Changing Announcement?
Fast forward to today, when card companies laughed at the idea of putting a /10,000 stamp on every card. Why bother? It wouldn’t even remotely move the needle.
In today’s world, there are multiple 1/1 cards — superfractors, pressure plates, platinum parallels, and whatever Panini does — for every player in almost every set. There can be several different types of cards numbered /99. And then you have /150, /250, /399 and further up the ladder. The highest number you are likely to see is on the gold parallels in the Topps flagship product numbered with the year (/2021 in 2021, /2022 in 2022 and /2023 in 2023).
For those of us who have gotten back into the hobby in recent years – mine was in late 2019, then with both feet during the pandemic – it’s enough to make heads turn. So today we are here to try to find out the state of the country.
The first rule of understanding the value of numbered cards is that a low number on a card – say /99 – isn’t always a big deal. A quick story: About a year and a half ago I stumbled across someone on Facebook Marketplace (back when it was a place to move your unwanted stuff before it became a complete cesspool for collectors) who literally had a full Milk case sold cards, mostly unopened packs. This crate turned out to contain many packs that may have contained Steph Curry Rookie cards, and despite the milk crate packaging, they were all in good condition.
bully for me
Wanting to sell to a wide audience, I listed them on eBay, the first time I’d used the site to sell rather than buy. Encouraged by the immediate influx of money, I started looking through the cards I’d bought the previous year and looked for other things to list. I came across a Gerrit Cole numbered /99.
“Result,” I thought, because I’m really that cool.
I figured that had to be worth at least $15 or something, right? I mean, it’s a super-limited card from a permanent Cy Young running for the Yankees. I listed it on eBay somewhere in this area and was anxiously waiting for something to happen. anything. But nothing.
I felt like this come on do something meme in real life.
Nothing. I lowered the price as a strategy. Nothing. Dropped again in frustration, then again in anger. Nothing. Considered just tearing it up symbolically. It eventually went on sale eight months later for about $1.50 with free shipping.
MORE: Cubs rookie Ethan Roberts chases his Topps rainbow during Tommy John rehab
Yes, the lesson has been learned. A few of them even. The first is that not all /99s are the same. The second is that no collector would want veteran Panini Contenders cards, regardless of the ‘scarcity’, and the third is that Gerrit Cole cards aren’t selling nearly as well as one might think. I bought one last summer, numbered /45, listed it immediately, and it’s still unsold for about $3.
So yes.
So how do numbered cards fit into the hobby equation? They provide security in a hobby full of uncertainty, especially in times of increasing circulation. How many 2023 Topps Series 1 Adleyrutschman Base RCs are there? We don’t know for sure, but it’s certainly over 700,000 and probably closer to 1 million cards.
But we KNOW that there are only 2,023 of his Gold Foil cards, 499 of the Green Foil cards, and only 199 of the Red Foil variants. So these cards have a premium.
With numbered cards, it depends on the players
It sounds simple, and it is, but it’s something to keep in mind when opening packs. An Adleyrutschman Green Foil card numbered /499 will be worth significantly more (over $100) than a Ruthieman base card. Ditto for his rookie teammate Gunnar Henderson ($100+). But his teammate Jorge Mateo? You can probably get this for a dollar plus .50 shipping on eBay or COMC or any of the other sites that offer cards.
A number on the back can increase prices for certain cards, but it doesn’t automatically make every card with that number worth anything.
But when players break out or do something special, it’s the numbered cards (and cars, SPs, etc.) that quickly increase in price. Just because a player – especially a young player – isn’t hot in the hobby today doesn’t mean they won’t be next week. There are worse strategies than buying low on numbered cards from players you think are about to break out.
With numbered cards, it depends on the brand
In the world of baseball cards, Topps is favored by collectors. That’s not to say Panini cards are worthless because they aren’t, but Topps cards have more value. Topps has baseball heritage and an element of collectors loyalty, and it has team logos. Panini has airbrushed jerseys and caps, and the backs of the cards are clearly afterthoughts. Let’s do a little comparison of listings sold by eBay with raw (unrated) 2022 Julio Rodriguez RCs numbered /199.
For J-Rod’s Topps Update RC (#US44) this is the Red Foil parallel. For his Panini Prizm RC (#40), that’s a blue parallel, either Blue Mojo or Blue Donut Circles. And we only look at the final sale prices we know, which means we don’t count “Best Offer Accepted” entries because we don’t know the actual final sale price.
The last six known Red Foil retail prices: $399.95, $459, $650, $375, $350, and $431.
The last six known Blue Prizm retail prices: $71, $69.24, $50.01, $102.50, $59.99, $40.
Yes. Also, not all /199 are the same, not even from the same player, in the same year.
And even within Panini there are layers. Prizm cards are worth more than anything from the Chronicles series, for example. You can pretty consistently get Julio Chronicles RCs numbered /199 for $30 and under through eBay auctions.
When can you look forward to a numbered card?
Look, I don’t mean to sound critical. I still get excited every time I open a pack of numbered cards. As a child of the junk wax era of collecting, it’s all limited to me.
But from a pragmatic standpoint, it’s okay to get excited when you get an elite rookie with pretty much any numbered card. Very excited. Inner circle stars like Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, same thing. With Bowman, finding numbered cards from prospects like Jordan Walker or Anthony Volpe is like finding gold.
If you’re lucky enough to open a pack with a 1/1 card – I’m waiting for that – or anything /25 or less, that card will have value. If it’s a hot newbie or a future Hall of Famer, you might have enough cash to fund a vacation. Even if it’s an “ordinary” player, you can probably sell them for enough money to buy you lunch, dinner, or a stay at a hotel in town.
Or keep it because it’s still pretty cool, and the reason we all collect — at least started collecting — is to have cool cards.
#TheHobby Life is TSN’s weekly #TheHobby column. Join us every Monday morning for a conversation about collecting – the people, the businesses, the cards, the nostalgia and the business of an industry that still thrives despite predictions of doom and collapse.