Latest intersessional IMO meeting provides important clues on what might be agreed in the revised GHG strategy in July 2023
MMany of the details remain up in the air as the outcome of the IMO’s ISWG-GHG 14 meeting leaves a wide range of options for key elements of the GHG Reduction Strategy Review at the ISWG GHG 14.
The fourteenth Intersessional Working Group on Greenhouse Gases (ISWG GHG 14) is the penultimate IMO working group meeting prior to ISWG GHG 15, directly following the MEPC 80 meeting in July. MEPC 80 is a critical moment for the IMO, as it coincides both with the adoption of a revised Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy (Revised Strategy) and is the point at which a set of policies critical to the implementation of that Strategy are important, move into phase 3 – the phase in which they are completed.
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While ISWG-GHG 14 was another point in the process of achieving convergence, it was not a decision point for strategy or policy. However, the meeting may provide some useful insights into how debates at MEPC 80 might end, although details will remain in flux until final adoption.
dr Aly Shaw, Policy Lead at UMAS, said: “This meeting marked a growing clarity on likely ambitions for 2050 and also 2040, which is a positive sign for a just transition which, at its core, requires targets aimed at mitigating temperature rise limit to 1.5 or more below. Yet, despite all meetings’ repeated support for a just and just transition that leaves no one behind, there is little sign so far that this commitment is embedded in the revised strategy.”
Particular attention was paid to the levels of ambition, the medium-term measures, the “basket” or combination of measures to be completed and the revision of the IMO’s Data Collection System (DCS). Progress has been made in cleaning up and clarifying non-controversial parts of the revised strategy and refining some options, which will be further discussed and finalized in July.
The outcome text for this meeting, combined with the preferences expressed during the week, gives indications of what could be agreed at MEPC 80:
The vast majority of speakers (31/45) were clear that international shipping needs to achieve zero GHG emissions by 2050 and that all of that GHG reduction needs to come from the international shipping sector – not from cross-sector offsets, e.g. within the international shipping requires a fundamental change in technology.
To encourage the uptake of new fuels, there was broad support for a fuel economy target (5% by 2030), albeit without agreement on the subset of fuels to which this would apply: low-carbon/zero-carbon/zero-carbon /nearly -zero GHG.
A majority of countries called for setting a GHG reduction target for 2040 of an order of magnitude of GHG reduction consistent with the 1.5°C temperature target.
Almost all countries that have spoken would like these reductions to be matched by a technical element such as a fuel standard (e.g. a cap on greenhouse gas emissions reduced over time) and an economic element (e.g. a CO2 Price) to be regulated, with these policies aiming to support this transition. Most have spoken of the objective of the economic element (e.g. a carbon price) as supporting a just and just transition (e.g. revenue used to raise equity), but it is there considerable ambiguity as to what this means in practice.
dr Tristan Smith, Director of UMAS, said: “It can hardly be overstated how important the results of MEPC 80 will be to both society’s efforts to avoid dangerous climate change and the shipping sector. Judging from the numbers, with many supporting ambitious results, there are positive signs. However, this is an oversimplified way of estimating how these debates will end. The nature of the off-IMO debate leading up to MEPC 80 is therefore critical.”
As such, many of the details remain undecided as we move towards MEPC80, with only one meeting between meetings remaining (in the week leading up to MEPC 80) to allow the group to reach agreement on Ambition Levels/GHG Targets to bring, both the extent of the reductions and the scope (well -to-wake/tank-to-wake), the goals and timetable for the completion and entry into force of medium-term measures and the details of how a just and just Transition is expressed in the strategy and in the specification the measures by which the transition is achieved.
Source: UMAS