What to Believe from NFL’s Latest 2023 Mock Draft Trends
The 2023 NFL draft is upon us, which is the ideal time to study the latest mocks from some of the most knowledgeable experts in the field.
While these analysts are well connected and have proven their insight with many correct predictions over the years, nobody beats 1000. There are too many moving pieces, smoke screens, draft day deals, shocking ranges, surprising falls and other factors that lead to results led that no one could have seen coming.
That won’t stop us from trying to understand some of the trends that emerge in these mocks and to guess if they’re on to something or if there’s reason to believe they’re wrong.
The considered mocks were created by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, The Ringer’s Danny Kelly, and our own Bleacher Report scouting department.
With that in mind, let’s play fact or fiction with some consensus trends from these mock drafts.
Since the Carolina Panthers were traded to the lead in the 2023 draft last month, speculation has circulated as to which quarterback they will pick.
There are two seemingly viable options in Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio’s CJ Stroud, although Florida’s Anthony Richardson has entered the discussion after a world-class performance at the NFL Scouting Combine.
While Stroud once appeared to be the consensus pick for Carolina, that has changed in recent weeks. Young now comes off the board at #1 overall on most of the latest mocks.
Brugler, Kiper, Jeremiah and B/R’s scouting department all believe the Alabama signal caller will be the first to hear his name on April 27th.
While McShay and Kelly are still letting Stroud go to Carolina, the latest rumors don’t support that prediction.
According to ESPN’s David Newton, “several senior sources believe that Young is simply the better player.” ESPN’s Matt Miller polled his sources and found that “Young backed down before Stroud.”
ESPN’s Adam Scherter went so far as to say that meeting the Houston Texans, who are ranked No. 2 overall, would be “a waste of time” for Young.
The betting odds match. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Young recently became the odds favorite at -450 ($450 bet wins $100). It’s a marked change from last month, when Stroud was the first player drafted.
Money speaks in a situation like this. Between the betting trends and the latest inside information, it looks like the pundits are right that Young will be the top overall pick in 2023.
Fact: Bryce Young is drafted No. 1 overall.
Quentin Johnston is one of the most gifted wideouts in the 2023 class, but most pundits aren’t too high on him in their latest mock drafts.
The B/R scouting department released the only mock in which the TCU star finishes in the top 20, while two of the mocks we looked at – Bruglers and Kipers – drop the successful receiver into the second round .
The league even chose not to invite Johnston to draft in person to avoid a potentially awkward situation.
Johnston has his weaknesses. B/R NFL scout Derrik Klassen emphasized his penchant for unquestioned drops and laziness off the line. But he’s still arguably one of the top all-rounders, if not the top all-rounder, for his position in this class.
The 21-year-old has all the incorrigible qualities a team could want in a wideout. Standing at a massive 6’3″, 208 pounds, he displayed a ridiculous 40 ½” vertical and 11’2″ wide jump at the combine. After running a sub 4.5-second 40-meter dash on his pro day, there shouldn’t be any doubts about his athleticism.
Consider that Johnston has had a prolific 1,000+ yard season, and it’s hard to blame one team for the Horned Frogs product being the first receiver off the board this year. The B/R scouting department ranked him the top player in his position and No. 11 in class.
Despite Johnston’s impressive mix of size and athleticism, Jaxon Smith-Njigba appears to be the wideout most pundits believe will be taken first. The Ohio State star is 20th off the board in all six mocks examined, even 11th in McShay’s version.
With a number of teams needing help at the receiver position and the veterans market nearly barren outside of an expensive trade candidate in DeAndre Hopkins, it’s conceivable that Johnston will come off the board much sooner than these bogus drafts suggest, and should be one be great pick up 20 It’s even possible that he’s the first player in his position.
Fiction: Quentin Johnston is drafted into the top 20 instead.
One of the most popular trade predictions was the Arizona Cardinals relegation from 3rd place overall. It’s far from a controversial prognosis given the club’s commitment to quarterback Kyler Murray and several rival franchises have expressed interest in stepping up to secure a passer of their own.
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, at least six organizations have reached out to Arizona regarding the third choice.
While most seem to agree that the Cardinals will at least seriously consider relegation, it’s uncertain how far the roster would be willing to slide.
B/R Scouting, Kelly and McShay have the Cardinals trade the Indianapolis Colts for a package overwritten by the #4 overall pick.
Kiper takes Arizona all the way down to 11th by making a trade with the Tennessee Titans that allows the team to draft a potential franchise signal caller in Anthony Richardson.
Brugler and Jeremiah both have the cards under control. But the former called No. 3 “the pick most likely to be traded,” and the latter said he “won’t be surprised” if the Cardinals pass that pick to the Colts, noting that the Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders did also could be in play.
If Arizona stays at No. 3, it would likely draft Will Anderson Jr., a generational talent who ranks as the top overall prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department’s latest big board. Both Brugler and Jeremiah paired the Cardinals with the Alabama standout.
As tempting as Anderson at number 3 might be, the team could have their cake and eat it too. A trade with Indianapolis makes the most sense in this regard, as it allows the Cardinals to bring in additional assets while also becoming the best overall player in class.
It now remains to be seen how much the Colts will be willing to part with to ensure they aren’t leapfrogged by a rival franchise in the hunt for a quarterback.
Fact: Cardinals will be relegated from #3 overall.
Bijan Robinson is not only the best running back available this year, but also one of the most intriguing prospects at every position in the 2023 class. The Texas product earned a rare 9.0 grade from the Bleacher Report Scouting Department and finished on his latest big board 4th place overall.
Despite his unreal mix of athleticism, height (5’11”, 215lbs) and ability, Robinson didn’t knock a single one of the six mock drafts we looked at before the 14th pick. Two of them put him 20th or later drop when Kelly picked him for No. 20 and the B/R scouting department put him at No. 22 as the lowest of all.
Given that individual running backs have declined in prominence to a non-premium position in recent years, it’s not far-fetched to think Robinson could fall. There were many classes that didn’t get their backs off the board on day one, including last year when Breece Hall was picked first in 36th place.
Almost all of these classes, however, lacked a back as gifted as Robinson. The score Jordan Schulz quoted an NFL exec as calling the Longhorns star one of the best RB talents they’ve seen “in the last 10+ years,” while ESPN’s Jordan Reid said in September, “A lot of scouts think Robinson’s the Best running back prospect since Saquon is Barkley.”
Barkley hasn’t figured out exactly what the New York Giants were hoping for after they drafted him 2nd overall in 2018, but before a cruciate ligament rupture derailed his development in 2020, Penn State’s product was on track to to become a superstar.
Robinson is poised to make an instant impact like Barkley did for Big Blue when he amassed over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and had 15 touchdowns as a rookie.
That sort of potential should ultimately be too intriguing for some teams playing in the top third of the draft – or willing to trade that high – to pass up.
Fiction: Bijan Robinson will disappear before 14th place overall.
As of early March, Jalen Carter has been one of the more difficult prospects to pick a draft location for.
After leaving the combine to join authorities, the Georgia defense attorney pleaded no contest to reckless driving and racing charges against him in January after a vehicle being driven by recruiter Chandler LeCroy crashed, killing both her and teammate Devin Willock, who was a passenger.
Carter, who drove a different vehicle from LeCroy, was sentenced to 12 months probation, a $1,000 fine and community service for his involvement.
Although there was some initial speculation that this could weigh on Carter’s draft shares, it appears he will still finish in the top 10. In all six mock drafts we’ve looked at, Carter comes off in 9th place or earlier.
Kiper, McShay and Jeremiah are the best at Carter – who the B/R scouting department ranked as the second best overall contender in that class – tying him with the Seattle Seahawks at No. 5.
This seems to be the point where most NFL executives think Carter will end up as well. NBC Sports’ Peter King said pairing Carter with the Seahawks has become “almost a cliché” among team officials.
Kelly believes Carter’s future lies with the Detroit Lions, who are right behind the Seahawks at No. 6 overall.
B/R Scouting and Brugler anticipate Carter’s biggest fall. They each tied him with the Chicago Bears at No. 9 overall, the pick the team received from the Panthers when it traded down from No. 1 last month.
Despite his legal troubles and a poor showing on his pro day, Carter showed too much talent and promise during his three years in Athens to finish outside the top 10. The draft pundits should be right here, and the most likely outcome sees him go to #5 on April 27.
Fact: Jalen Carter is selected ahead of 10th overall