After BAFTAs, ‘Banshees of Inisherin’ overtakes ‘Everything’ in Oscar odds for Best Original Screenplay – GoldDerby

In one of the closest Oscar races of the year, the lead in our chances for Best Original Screenplay has changed hands again. After winning the BAFTA Awards, The Banshees of Inisherin has taken a spot very Slight lead over “everything everywhere at once”. Click on the graphic below to see how this close race has changed since the nominations were announced on January 24th.

Written by Martin McDonaghThe Banshees of Inisherin tells the original story of two Irishmen whose friendship ends abruptly. The dialogue and character-driven script now holds leading odds of 69/20 based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. It’s endorsed by 14 of 23 trade journalists we surveyed from major media outlets, seven of 13 Gold Derby editors, 11 of our Top 24 users, and 13 of our All-Star Top 24. Of those groups, only the Top 24 have it as of this writing still a majority for “Everything Everywhere”.

But Everything, Everywhere at Once is still the favorite for best picture by a wide margin. Can “Banshees” really beat it for best writing? There is precedent for such a split. The Shape of Water (2017) won Best Picture and Best Director (as is currently predicted for Everything) but lost Best Original Screenplay to Get Out. Likewise, “Nomadland” (2020) won Best Picture and Best Director, but lost Best Adapted Screenplay to “The Father.” So it’s possible that the academy would give the wealth to McDonagh for his screenplay.

However, the Academy has also shown that they don’t mind a sweep. Birdman (2014) won the hat-trick for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay. So also “Parasite” (2019). And “Everything Everywhere” won those three categories at the Critics Choice Awards. So it looks like this race is likely to stay tight all the way to the finish line.

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