Analysis: Latest IPCC report confirms climate change is worsening, but we have the tools to combat it

The world is in deep trouble because of climate change, but if we really get behind the wheel, we can turn things around. That, roughly speaking, is the essence of a new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The IPCC is the world’s official body for assessing climate change. The Panel has just published its synthesis report, concluding seven years of in-depth assessments on various topics.

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The report contains the key findings from six previous reports written by hundreds of experts. They ran to many thousands of pages and were informed by hundreds of thousands of comments from governments and the scientific community.

The synthesis report clearly confirms that humans are increasing greenhouse gas emissions to record levels. Global temperatures are now 1.1℃ above pre-industrial levels. In the early 2030s, they are likely to reach 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels.

Photo credit: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

This warming has caused widespread and rapid global changes, including sea-level rise and climate extremes – resulting in widespread damage to life, livelihoods and natural systems.

It is becoming increasingly clear that vulnerable people in developing countries – who have generally contributed little to greenhouse gas emissions – are often disproportionately affected by climate change.

Intergenerational injustices are also likely. A child born now is likely to experience, on average, several times as many extreme climate events as their grandparents in their lifetime.

The world is up the proverbial creek – but we still have a paddle. Climate change is happening, but we have the tools to act.

There’s so much at stake

Last week in Interlaken, Switzerland, several hundred representatives from most of the world’s governments reviewed the 35-page summary of the IPCC report.
The test is done sentence by sentence, often word by word and number by number. Sometimes it is the subject of heated debates.

We were both involved in this process. The role of the report authors and members of the IPCC Bureau is to stay true to the underlying science and to provide a path between the preferences of different governments. It is a unique process for scientific documents.

The approval process usually goes straight to the line, in meetings that last all night. This synthesis report was no exception. The scheduled time for the meeting was extended by two days and nights, wearing down government officials and IPCC teams.

The process reflects how much is at stake. The IPCC’s assessments are formally adopted by all governments around the world. This in turn is reflected in the private sector – for example in the decisions of the board of directors of large companies and investment funds.

The latest on greenhouse gas emissions

The synthesis report confirms that both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are now at record highs.

To keep warming within 2℃ above pre-industrial levels, global greenhouse gas emissions need to fall by about 21% by 2030 and by about 35% by 2035. Keeping warming below 1.5℃ requires even more reduction in emissions.

In view of the history of emissions to date, this is a very big challenge. Annual global emissions in 2019 were 12% higher than in 2010 and 54% higher than in 1990.

Photo credit: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

But success in reducing emissions has been demonstrated. According to the IPCC, existing policies, laws, technologies and measures around the world are already reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by billions of tons compared to what would otherwise be the case.

Most importantly, global emissions could be significantly reduced if existing policy tools were expanded and widely applied. The report shows great potential for emission reduction options in all parts of the global economy.

Many of these are available at low cost. And many bring side effects, such as reduced air pollution. If all technically available options were used, global emissions could be at least halved by 2030 at manageable costs.

The new report finds that the global economic benefits of limiting warming to 2℃ outweigh the costs of cutting emissions. This does not even take into account the avoided damage caused by climate change or the side effects that reasonable action could bring.

We have the accumulated experience to turn the corner. As the report points out, numerous regulatory and economic policy instruments have been used successfully. And we know how to shape climate policy in such a way that it is politically acceptable and does not disadvantage the poorer parts of society.

The report also emphasizes the importance of good institutions for climate change governance – such as laws and independent bodies – and for meaningful participation by all groups in society.

The adjustment falls short

Rapid action to combat climate change makes economic sense. If we don’t curb emissions, adapting to the damage they cause will become more difficult and expensive in the future. In addition, our existing customization options will become less effective.

Any increase in warming will increase climate-related hazards such as floods, droughts, heat waves, fires and hurricanes. Two or more hazards often occur simultaneously.

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Unfortunately, overall global adaptation has not kept pace with the pace and magnitude of the increasing impacts of climate change. Most responses were fragmented, incremental and limited to a specific economic sector. And most are unevenly distributed across regions and vary in effectiveness.

The barriers to more effective adaptive responses are well known. Chief among them is a widening gap between adaptation costs and allocated funds. We can and should do a lot better.

Photo credit: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

As the recent IPCC report confirms, there are ways to make adaptation more effective. More investment in research and development is needed. Equally important are long-term planning and integrative, equitable approaches that bring together diverse knowledge.

Many customization options bring significant side effects. For example, better home insulation can help us deal with extreme weather conditions and reduce heating and cooling costs and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

Relocating people from flood-prone areas and returning those areas to more natural systems can reduce flood risk, increase biodiversity, and store carbon dioxide in plants and soil.

And climate change adaptation policies that prioritize social justice, justice and a “just transition” can also help achieve other global ambitions, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

We can close the gap

In both mitigating and adapting to climate change, there remains a huge gap between what is needed and what is being done.

Current climate commitments by countries do not contribute to the common goal of limiting temperature increases to below 2℃. And for many countries, current emissions curves would also overshoot their targets.

In addition, current total investments in low-emission technologies and systems are three to six times lower than what would be needed to keep temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C, according to the modelling.

Likewise, overall too little work is being done to understand, prepare and implement measures to adapt to climate change. The gaps are generally widest in developing countries, which can afford to invest much less in climate action than rich parts of the world.

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Developing countries are demanding large-scale climate finance from developed countries, and this is falling far short of what is needed.

Predictably, issues of international equity and justice were among the most sensitive to approving the Synthesis Report. The final version of the report does not formulate the issue as an insoluble conflict, but as an opportunity to “shift development paths towards sustainability”.

The vision of most governments is for the whole world to achieve a high standard of living but with “carbon neutral” technologies, systems and consumption patterns. And the systems must be built to withstand future climate change, including the nasty surprises that may come.

It has to be done. It can be done. Broadly speaking, we know how to do it – and it makes good business sense. In this report, the governments of the world have recognized this.

Frank Jotzo is the lead author of the IPCC’s latest assessment of climate change mitigation and a member of the core team responsible for preparing the synthesis report. Mark Howden is Vice Chair of the IPCC Working Group on Climate Impacts and Adaptation and Review Editor of the Synthesis Report. Both were involved in the government’s approval meeting for the IPCC synthesis report.

This article was republished by The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.