Antonio Gibson or Brian Robinson Jr.: Who’s the better fantasy draft pick in 2022?

The organization now known as the Washington Commanders has been on a 21st-century rollercoaster ride, and the ups and downs look set to continue into the 2022 NFL season. This year, Carson Wentz will lead a young offense into what will hopefully be the first pro football season since 2016 that DC fans are hoping for. But question marks remain, and from a fantasy football perspective, the most threatening concerns the Commanders backfield – who will start running back in Week 1: Antonio Gibson sophomore or rookie Brian Robinson Jr.?

Eight months ago, starting a rookie over Gibson, who has hit double-digit touchdowns in each of his pro seasons and hauled over 1,300 scrimmage yards in 2021, would have seemed like an absurd idea. However, Robinson impressed right off the bat, and he already appears to be winning the favor of Washington head coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner.

So, which Commanders RB should you design for your fantasy team, and at what point in the design will Gibson and Robinson Jr. offer the most value? Let’s evaluate this unique situation with up-to-date statistics and information.

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2022 Fantasy Cheat Sheet

Antonio Gibson Fantasy Outlook, Projection 2022

When Gibson was a rookie two years ago, he only had three things to worry about: health, third-down and goalline snaps, and target share. Veteran pass catcher JD McKissic has seemingly stunted Gibson’s potential for growth from Day 1, but when the elder RB was injured towards the end of last season, Gibson’s fantasy goodness parted.

Gibson finally had the backfield almost to himself. The sophomore returning from Memphis made full use of his first string of consistent 20-plus touch plays and secured his first 1,000-yard rushing season. All told, he converted 300 touches into 1,331 all-purpose yards and his second straight campaign with 10+ touchdowns.

STANDARD RANKINGS 2022:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | foosball | Top 200 | Superflex

Great, isn’t it? Well, let’s pump the breaks, scratch the record or whatever else you would do to metaphorically say “not so fast”. There are also disadvantages with Gibson. For starters, he put the ball on the field way too many times. He led all RBs with six fumbles lost and four fumbles lost — and coughed it up in Week 2 of this preseason against Carolina (for which he still appears to be in the kennel). He also proved less efficient last year than in his rookie season – falling from 4.7 yards per rush attempt to 4.0 and from 5.1 yards per touch to 4.4.

Then there are the injuries. According to the Draft Sharks Injury Predictor Tool, between September 2021 and January 22, Gibson suffered four separate lower body injuries: a stress fracture in his tibia, a calf injury, a sprained toe, and a thigh strain. He initially suffered a turf toe-related injury in his rookie season, but he played through it in his second campaign. Many pundits believe these injuries have hampered his efficiency over the past season.

Regardless of the true reasons, it seems clear at this point that Rivera and Turner’s confidence in the young back isn’t exactly overflowing. The first troubling report involved McKissic, who was originally planning to sign a deal with the high-flying Bills. When Washington abruptly agreed to the offer — having previously offered the vet a deal — McKissic quickly waived the bills and returned to the Commanders.

PPR RANKINGS 2022:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | foosball | Top 200 | Superflex

Then Washington selected Robinson Jr. in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Early on, Rivera alluded to the use of Gibson and Robinson in much the same way that Rivera DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart did in his Carolina days. Again, none of this inspires confidence in the prospect of owning Gibson shares in Fantasy.

Then this preseason put the icing on a cake that’s already SUS Washington. On Saturday against the Chiefs, the Commanders gave Robinson the first backfield carry and started Gibson as a kick returner in special teams. Rivera’s side saw Robinson carry the ball for 31 yards eight times in the first half, while Gibson managed just three yards on two carries.

It should be noted that Gibson added 37 yards on three catches, a detail bullish Gibson owners will lean on, but consider the fact that McKissic sat out Saturday night. When active, McKissic is the pass catcher in DC. He has caught 123 of 163 goals for his team in the nation’s capital and has gambled the ball just three times in 256 touches. Be afraid, Gibby believers. I’m very scared.

2022 FANTASY THRESHOLDS:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | One from each team

Brian Robinson Jr. Fantasy Outlook, 2022 Projection

When Robinson was first drafted into the Commanders, Gibson fans, goalies and Dynasty owners probably feared the rookie would eat them in the back. None of us saw the potential for Robinson to just push Gibson off the depth chart entirely. This is the reality now. One thing to know about Robinson is never underestimate the kid.

Robinson, a Tuscaloosa native, spent four years in Alabama as a backup running back. Though his per-carry averages and total TDs increased in both his junior and senior years, he was never promoted to starter. Instead of licking his emotional wounds and agreeing to be drafted after four years, Robinson took the optional fifth year (thanks to COVID-19) and defected the entire NCAA.

AUCTION VALUES 2022 (Standard & PPR):
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | foosball | In total

As a fifth-year senior, Robinson recorded 1,343 rushing yards on 271 carries (5.0 yards per). He hit 1,639 yards from scrimmage. He posted 14 ground TDs and two through the air. This is despite one of Alabama’s worst offensive lines of Nick Saban’s era and despite Robinson suffering three broken ribs and a torn hamstring earlier in the season.

At the Cotton Bowl, Robinson backed the tide while star wideout John Metchie was sidelined. The back rushed 26 times for an Alabama Bowl-record 204 rushing yards, and ‘Bama beat Cincy 27-6. He rushed for 96 yards in the Crimson Tide National Championship loss to Georgia.

RANKING 2022 & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs

It’s pretty easy to see why Rivera likes Robinson. He’s a tough, physical runner who can rush for tons of yards and build solid breakaway speed after contact. At 6-2 and 225 pounds, he has the size and strength to hit a bulldozer, but also the vision and footwork to evade would-be tacklers. If Damien Harris, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs hadn’t buried him on the ‘Bama depth chart, this guy would be a household name by now.

We’ve seen Robinson bet on himself and continue to defy his own situational limitations. So it stands to reason that he could very well end up as a starting RB in Week 1 for this Washington football club. We don’t have a magic 8-Ball on hand, but “all signs point to” Robinson Gibson jumping on the depth chart. It seems that the rookie’s advantages just make Rivera more attractive.

RANKING 2022 & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs

Currently, FantasyPros has Gibson’s ADP in the early to mid 40’s while Robinson remains in the 140’s. This is a clear example of why you need to do some preseason fantasy research before Draft Day – Gibson couldn’t possibly be a worse value in Rounds 3 or 4 – in fact, he probably doesn’t deserve consideration before Round 7 or 8 of the PPRs . He wasn’t trusted in the red zone for the last two seasons and now he might not be trusted at all. Meanwhile, Robinson has the chance to become a league winner.

After the fourth round, aim anywhere on Robinson. No seriously! He’s the starter in Washington until we hear more and we’ve already seen how effective he can be under the bright lights. He’s NFL-worthy size and strength, and a coaching staff that clearly believes in him. You’re better off with a high upside start RB than a sleeper WR or a handcuffed RB. There’s no question that Robinson deserved the earlier pick – the only question now is how soon savvy bettors will call him up after last weekend.

The choice is… Robinson – by a landslide