Best Bets Include Domantas Sabonis
I have to say that as an NBA fan and bettor, I’ve been loving the Sunday tables over the past few weeks, including four games on ABC/ESPN. However, with the Monday assignment for this column, it also means that with so many props being hit in these games, I have a tough job to do. The Suns-Mavs, Knicks-Celtics, and Grizzlies-Clippers games all exceeded 250 points.
Last week was solid as my NBA prop picks went 4-2. However, as always, I’m chasing this exclusive sweep. Those are the three players that I think will help us get there tonight. Let’s dive into this Monday table.
NBA Player Props and Tips
Damian Lillard over 36.5 points (-130)
|time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
If I’m betting on a player to score 35+ points, I prefer odds of +250 or higher. It’s -140 for Lillard to score 35 points. While Lillard’s value is gone, it’s hard to ignore the consistency. Lillard has 36 points in six of his last nine games. That includes four 40-point games and two more games in which he finished with 33 points.
It’s also hard to ignore the matchup. According to props.cash, the Pistons are the 29th defending point guard. The Pistons also allow the third-most three-pointers to show guards in their last 15 games. Lillard doesn’t need a great matchup to explode beyond the arc.
However, in his last 10 games, he has been averaging nearly five three-pointers on 12 attempts per game. The Pistons have struggled to defend guards all season and they conceded 41 points to Zach LaVine on Wednesday. Last time out against Cleveland, it took Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell both just 24 minutes to crack 20 points. Usefully, a blowout prevented them from crossing their lines.
While the Pistons are a great matchup for most players, they clearly tank so a blowout was factored in when targeting props in their games. However, the Blazers play without Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic. You are also on the second end of a back-to-back.
Also, Lillard scored 71 points the last time he faced another tank team – the Houston Rockets. I’m not saying he’ll drop 70 again, but I think at least 37 is likely.
Gabe Vincent via 1.5 3-pointers (-152)
|time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Gabe Vincent is only shooting 32% from beyond this season. However, he’s trying 5.5 per game this season, so there should be enough volume to hit two.
Vincent can be a boom or bust player at times. He’s crossed that line in five of his last nine games. There were two games in which he failed to make a three-pointer. However, in the five he overtook, he hit at least three three-pointers in all. That includes Saturday night’s game against the Hawks when he went 3-on-7 from the Deep. Vincent has crossed that line in both games he played against the Hawks this season.
Atlanta can defend the three-ball better than last season. It allows the 10th fewest makes per game and ranks sixth in three-point percent defense. However, they have been vulnerable lately, allowing 13 or more in four of their last five games.
On Saturday, Vincent, Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin each made threes and went through their lines. The Hawks have also allowed Cam Reddish, Damian Lillard, Darius Garland and Corey Kispert to cross their lines in their last five games. Vincent is averaging seven three-point attempts against the Hawks this season. If he gets six or seven tries, I like his chances of knocking down two.
Visit our NBA props page for daily player prop lines and projections.
Domantas Sabonis over 20.5 points (+100)
|time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Domantas Sabonis has averaged 18.9 points per game this season. However, in his last 10 games, he has increased that average to 20.7 points per game. He has 21 points in six of his last 10 games. In three more games he scored 18, 18 and 20 points. Sabonis’ consistency is one of the reasons I’m targeting him tonight, but so is this duel.
The total for this game is 237 points so the odds makers are predicting a high scoring game. That’s no surprise with the kings involved. They have scored 120 points in each of their last six games and all of those games have had at least 239 points. I also like this matchup against New Orleans.
New Orleans ranks 9th in defensive efficiency, but they’ve been vulnerable against big men lately. In their last four games against the Pelicans, Jakob Poeltl, Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle and Kevon Looney have crossed their point line. Poeltl and Randle each scored 21 points or more. New Orleans will also be without Larry Nance Jr. tonight and Jonas Valanciunas is a question.
I would prefer Valanciunas to be ruled out as he is not a good defender. He would also line up longer as head coach Willie Green prefers him to face more traditional centers like Sabonis. The Kings may also need a little more points from Sabonis if De’Aaron Fox (currently in question) is ruled out.
Fox also didn’t play in the first meeting in this matchup and the Pelicans won 136-104. Sabonis scored 12 points in 27 minutes in the blowout. If Sabonis plays his usual minutes tonight, I like his chances to score 21 points.
How would you rate this item?
This page contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content of this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of any information provided or the outcome of any game or event.