Broncos vs. Chargers: How to watch, time, TV channel, live stream, key matchup, pick for Monday Night Football

After the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, the Los Angeles Chargers have a chance Monday night to take on their division rivals with a record 4-2 record. Another divisional rival stands in their way: the Denver Broncos.

Denver suffered a disastrous loss to the Indianapolis Colts last week and risks seeing its season spiral out of control if it can’t get the ship back on track offensively and soon. The Chargers’ defense has been very forgiving of opponents so far this year, especially on the ground, so maybe there’s a chance for the Broncos to get things moving. Of course, just showing some improvement isn’t enough to keep up with Justin Herbert and company, so surely Russell Wilson would rather start showing some of the explosion we’ve come to expect from this group before the season begins.

Will the Chargers pull off a win at home or will the Broncos cause an upset on the road? We’ll find out soon enough. In the meantime, let’s break down the matchup.

like watching

Date: Monday 17 Oct | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
TV: ESPN | Electricity: fuboTV (try for free)
Consequences: CBS Sports App
opportunities: Chargers -4.5, O/U 45.5 (courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

When the Broncos have the ball

I’ve written more than enough on the Broncos’ offense this season. Suffice it to say that things have not gone well. Here is an excerpt from the latest story:

The early down-passing attack was abysmal, with [Russell] Wilson completed just 65 of 114 passes (57%) for 775 yards (6.8 per attempt), two touchdowns, and an interception on the first and second down. He is 25th in EPA by dropback among 32 qualified quarterbacks. In games where he wasn’t blitzed, he missed 13.8% of his shots, a mark nearly three percentage points below the league average. Worse, the pass catchers don’t really open: According to NFL.com’s next-gen stats, Wilson had to throw into narrow windows on 18.2% of his shots — the ninth-highest rate in the NFL.

Wilson has struggled with play-action passes (24 of 46 for 421 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and one drop interception, and he’s only 21st of 32 qualifiers in the EPA per dropback); passing against defenses that don’t blitz (81 of 138 for 885 yards, two touchdowns, two picks, two dropbacks, 22nd in EPA per dropback); and especially throwing against zone coverage (83 of 135 for 879 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, two dropped interceptions, 28th in EPA per dropback).

The best way to attach the chargers is on the ground, but there’s more bad news on that front:

[Melvin] Gordon was terrible, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, four fumbles (one of which was returned by the Raiders for a touchdown), a 21% negative rush rate (league average is 18.7%) and just two explosive wins on 52 carries (a 3.8% rate that ranks 41st out of 50 players with at least 25 rush attempts this season).

If the Broncos manage to pull off some offensive success in this game, it was unpredictable based on their efforts to date. It will likely be down to some sort of bug on LA’s side.

When the Chargers have the ball

The encounters on this side of the ball will unfortunately be affected by injuries. The Chargers are still without left tackle Rashawn Slater and wide receiver Keenan Allen, while the Broncos will be without edge rusher Randy Gregory, linebacker Josey Jewell or safety Caden Sterns. Safety Justin Simmons can return from injured reserve, although that hasn’t officially happened yet.

With Allen not in the lineup, it’s very likely we’ll see Star Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II following Mike Williams in coverage around the lineup for much of the evening. Williams is on the sidelines most of the time and has only lined up 12.8% of his snaps in the slot so far this season. Surtain certainly has the size and physicality to rival Williams, but neither is Williams a player who relies on a breakup to make an impact. (According to NFL.com’s Next Gen Stats, he averages just 2.6 yards from his targets, and among wide receivers only DeVante Parker has received fewer pre-snap pads than his 4.6 yards.) He’s on Best in competitive catching situations and when using his body to shield his defender from the ball. How many times he can win those fights against Surtain will have a big impact on this game.

Without Gregory, the Broncos field Baron Browning as the edge rusher, and he’s looked pretty good in the role. He had 10 (TEN!) pressure, 1.5 sacks and two tackles for loss during last week’s slop fest against the Colts. He’ll work against a backup tackle if he comes in from the right side of defense, and unless Trey Pipkins is 100% healthy on the opposite side, both Browning and Bradley Chubb could have advantages. The Chargers are more solid down the middle at the moment, but Dre’Mont Jones and DJ Jones need to get some pressure to keep Herbert in the pocket and unable to escape by stepping up and stepping through.

LA’s best passing game matchup could be with Austin Ekeler from the backfield against the Denver linebackers — or even Simmons if he’s rusty in his first return game. Ekeler is one of the best pass-fighting backs in the NFL, capable of running all types of routes. The Chargers have kept him fresher this year by rotating Joshua Kelley (and Sony Michel) into the roster more often and directing more of his effort into passing downs, two-minute offense and even short-yard situations. Basically, they want him in high-leverage moments on the field, and with good reason.

forecast

Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

Score: Chargers 21, Broncos 16