David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant odds, predictions, best bets for 2023 boxing fight

A title-impact grudge match will be held on March 25 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Former world champions David Benavidez and Caleb Plant go head-to-head for a chance to show off and take on super middleweight king Canelo Alvarez.

Plant (22-1, 13 KOs) won the 2019 IBF super middleweight title and defended it three times. After losing the belt to Canelo in November 2021, he returned in great fashion in October, knocking out Anthony Dirrell in round 9 with a savage punch to the face.

Plant added Stephen “Breadman” Edwards as his trainer for the Dirrell fight. With his dad in the corner, Plant’s confidence has never been greater. Even with a brief turnaround for this fight, the former champion feels ready for the fight.

“Just bringing (Edwards) in, he has great chemistry with my dad and overall great chemistry with the team,” Plant told Boxing Scene. “We did a lot of hard work in the last camp, took a short break and we’re back setting up the last camp. I’m in a great place – in the best shape of my life and ready for March 25th.”

MORE: Everything you need to know about David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant

Benavidez won the WBC super middleweight title in 2017 and was later stripped of the belt after a failed drug test. He regained the title in 2019 against Dirrell but lost it again when he failed to gain weight against Roamer Alexis Angulo. His last fight was a TKO win over David Lemieux in May 2022.

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Both men have challenged each other over the years. For the Benavidez family, this is personal.

“It gets to the point where you’ve awakened the animal in David after being bullied by this guy for so many years [Plant]who says he’s fat,” Benavidez’s father and trainer told Fight Hype via Boxing News 24. “Even on his Instagram he uploaded an enlarged picture of David and said David is fat. He always says that about David… “Fat Boy.” He’s just a tyrant, and after a while David got tired. He woke up. People don’t like that. You get tired of being bullied after a while. This fight really motivated him.”

Will power or speed prevail? The Sporting News is here for a look at how to bet on this super middleweight fight.

Davids Benavidez vs Caleb Plant Betting Odds

According to Caesars, David Benavidez is the -360 favorite while Caleb Plant is the +280 underdog.

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David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant Betting Trends

  • Benavidez via KO/TKO: -150
  • Benavidez by decision: +420
  • Attachment via KO/TKO: +675
  • Appendix above decision: +400
  • Draw: +1400

David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant prediction, best bets

It’s a fight with two different styles: the power puncher and the boxer. Under the bright lights of Las Vegas, who will prevail?

Benavidez is as dangerous as they come. He has a +/- 16.7, the fourth best mark in boxing. The former champion averages the fourth most shots per round at 25.6 and ranks first in overall connection percentages at 38.4%. This resulted in an 88% knockout rate.

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Benavidez uses long reach and averages the fifth most jabs at 6.8 per round, which is a 26.3% mark. That’s more than Plant’s mark of 24.4%, but does that give him the ultimate advantage?

While Benavidez has the punch, Plant’s opponent lands the sixth lowest total punches per round at 7.3. He also allows the ninth fewest landed power punches per round in all of boxing at 5.5. Plant proved the Force is there as seen against Anthony Dirrell. But even if he can’t take Benavidez down, he can neutralize him with his movement and fight in the clinch.

Plant has the speed on his side, he doesn’t back down and applies pressure when needed. He will also try to make Benavidez uncomfortable with his boxing IQ. Benavidez has a strong chin and offers relentless pressure and volume hits. If he can dictate the pace of the fight and use his two inch advantage to tower above Plant, it could be a long night for Sweethands.

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If the fight goes the distance, expect Plant to take it home. However, many are wondering whether it will even go that far. Benavidez is determined and angry, and that leads to powerful shots. A fight that ends in the early rounds would be a Benavidez knockout. Benavidez can also play it smart and end it in the mid-rounds if he can neutralize Plant.

Plant may have improved since losing to Canelo, but Benavidez has enough motivation, strength and stamina to claim the win.

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Sporting News Prediction: Benavidez via TKO (Round Eight) (+1200 via FanDuel)

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