Day four best bets and accumulator picks for WGC-Match Play

Scottie Scheffler remains on course to defend his WGC Match Play title after posting a resounding victory over Tom Kim on Friday.

Scheffler, who plays in his home state, now has a 13-2-2 record at Austin Country Club, which is frankly outrageous and makes him a man to beat. Considering the fact that he faces JT Poston in the round of 16, it’s no wonder he’s a strong 4/1 favourite.

I got the feeling after day one that Rory McIlroy was underestimated a little and since then he’s won both games to progress with ease. He’s got a 5/1 chance now and with the theoretically more difficult draw and the fact that he’s in the same half as the standout so far I’m happy to leave it as is and keep hoping for a Cantlay-McIlroy final.

Based on past performance levels, those looking for an overall bet should consider Cameron Young and Kurt Kitayama at 9/1 and 25/1 respectively. If both get through their first games today, they will meet in the afternoon and it’s about getting into the semi-finals.

Max Homa vs Mackenzie Hughes (1235 GMT)

Strictly speaking, Homa ranks last among the 16 qualifiers in terms of shots won, but remember he’s only played two games since Hideki Matsuyama retired.

That, in turn, begs a mystery – will he benefit from a rest day or will it be difficult to toggle competitive mode on and off and back on? Who can say, but having put Hughes at odds for the past two days, there’s certainly a certain temptation to do so again.

The Canadian has now won six games out of ten in Austin and is dangerous. That being said, yesterday we were able to back him up at 6/4 to beat a potentially nervous Taylor Montgomery. Today he’s a best of 7/4 to beat a fearless and world class opponent. It’s not quite enough.

Patrick Cantlay vs. Sam Burns (1246)

Cantlay has done nothing to dissuade me from believing he would be a tough man to beat this week, beating a back-in-form Brian Harman to win 3-0-0 in his group. He did it without earning much, and the putter might ultimately be the club that determines how far he can go.

It’s also the club that would be the only real concern here. Burns continues to hit his approaches at a very poor level, but has been saved spectacularly at times by a fantastic putting display. Of course that could be the case again over 18 holes and it will be a really frustrating match for Cantlay to watch as his opponent puts them in a bad position.

Those are the negatives, but in terms of the overall gameplay, it’s not a recent competition between these two. I will hope for more of this.

Jason Day vs Matt Kuchar (1257)

Two former champions collide and this could be the tie of the round. Day was lucky enough to run into a hopeless putting effort from Collin Morikawa but still stayed in the form he’d shown all season, while Kuchar electrified on Friday and has been improving with every round so far.

At the start of the event, Day was under the second wave in the market and Kuchar was at the foot of it. I don’t think there’s much between them though, and let’s not forget that it’s only been about six weeks since Kuchar was in elite company on the Riviera.

Here at Austin, a course where he has a fabulous record, he’s not allowed to cause a stir and claim the all-time record for most match play wins. At 6/4, it’s a chance worth taking after Day raised concerns about his long game.

Scottie Scheffler vs. JT Poston (1308)

It would be surprising if Poston beat Scheffler here, which doesn’t tell you much. The former is world number one, his Austin record is unparalleled, and he got through a tricky group without seeming to break a sweat.

Poston can have one of those days where he wins four or five shots on the greens, but the fact that he might need it tells you all. Scheffler should be the player with the lowest price on the coupon.

Xander Schauffele vs. JJ Spaun (1319)

For Schauffele it was a quiet start to the year overall, and that was the case this week as well. He’s made very little noise despite being among the best players in the competition and a clutch birdie on the 18th yesterday sets him up well for Sunday.

In a way, Spaun was the surprise package that really impressed his group. He had to work harder on Friday but still managed to get the better of Min Woo Lee and it could be argued that he can continue to act as an underdog, which he will be in any match he plays.

Now things are getting serious, however, because as the lowest ranked player left, the Masters have him to think about. It didn’t stop him from winning the Texas Open last year, but it’s something to keep in mind as he repeats the feat.

Rory McIlroy vs Lucas Herbert (1330)

As with the Scheffler-Poston match, this looks clear save for the fact that the underdog can do anything and everything on his day. And while Poston isn’t exactly a pushy character, the, shall we say, not always popular Herbert is. In fact, one could draw early comparisons to Ian Poulter, who beat McIlroy here in 2021.

Herbert joined Sawgrass in the 80’s after two rounds and although he explained to me that he had a neck problem that week as well as some personal issues I still have my doubts about his ability to go all the way in this competition. Eventually his stubbornness will return and be too much to overcome, and it seems likely that is the case with McIlroy, who appears to have found the key to his driver.

Note that McIlroy and Cantlay are the two players who have putted worst among the top few performers so far. Improvement is possible, but to win it will certainly be necessary. For now, McIlroy can pull through against a dangerous but unreliable opponent.

Kurt Kitayama vs. Andrew Putnam (1341)

Another match between big hitter and hot putter and I expect Kitayama to win. The Bay Hill champion can take great courage from knocking down Tony Finau and then holding his own on Friday and him in a play-off 3rd place in SG total so far.

Putnam, who finished 22nd in the category over the first three days, says he feels his long game is improving with each round. However, the stats tell us that he is the only player to have qualified through three games (i.e. no Homa) but has lost shots both off the tee and with his approaches.

Having generally been out of shape when I come in and against an opponent who has secured his invite to Augusta, I suspect Putnam’s week ends here.

Cameron Young vs. Billy Horschel (1352)

Finally, Young takes on 2021 champion Horschel, who toppled Jon Rahm on Friday and is now looking to take down the best player on the field to date.

Young was sensational, particularly with his approach play, and the gap between his total shots and Horschel’s was more than three shots a day. In form so far he has every right to be an absolute favourite.

Of course, matchplay golf doesn’t always go according to plan, as Finau and Rahm found out yesterday, but Horschel’s swing changes leave him vulnerable to a world-class youngster who can bully him off the tee.

Posted at 0745 GMT on 25/03/23

More golf content

Play safer

We are committed to safer gambling. Recommended bets are recommended for those over the age of 18 and we strongly encourage readers to only wager what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling please contact the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

For more support and information, see begambleaware.org And Gambling Therapy.org.