Dolphins vs. Bengals predictions: Odds, total, player props, pick, how to watch ‘Thursday Night Football’

The Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins will begin their fourth week in the NFL when these two AFC clubs go head-to-head during Thursday Night Football.

If you had told someone in the summer that a team would go into this clash undefeated, most people would probably have pointed out that the Bengals have the perfect record, right? After all, they’ve just been to the Super Bowl and have a rising superstar in Joe Burrow. Well, the NFL has a fun way of turning the game on its head as it’s Miami unbeaten in Week 4 and an impressive win over Buffalo. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is looking to turn the tide after a 0-2 start and get back to .500 after beating the Jets in Week 3.

Here we will be looking specifically at the different betting angles this game has to offer. Along with the spread and totals, we’ll also take a look at some players’ props and offer our picks on how we think this showdown will play out.

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

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Date: Thursday 29 Sept | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
Streaming: Amazon Prime Video

Consequences: CBS Sports App
Opportunities: Bengal -3.5, O/U 47.5

line movement

Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins

This line mimics a Ferris wheel. Back in the spring when the game schedule was released, the Bengals were four-point favorites. However, in the preview going into Week 3, Miami’s rise earlier in the season pushed that to Bengal’s -1.5. After the Bengals played well against New York and Tua Tagovailoa picked up a back and shoulder injury last week, the series swung back in favor of the Bengals, who were again four-point favorites. But now is Tagovailoa Reportedly expected to playso the line is now Bengals -3.5.

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The selection: Dolphins +3.5. Under most circumstances, this is the ideal spot for dolphins. Their quarterback is battered and they pull off an unlikely victory over the team favored to win their division in the Buffalo Bills. Not only that, the Bengals finally got into the victory column against New York last week. However, I’m not entirely convinced that Cincinnati has turned the tide. The Jets turned the ball over four times last week and the Bengals scored 13 points from those takeaways. I don’t expect the Dolphins to give the ball to the opposition that much and as long as the ball still gets into the hands of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle they can amass a ton of YAC to move the chains. The Bengals also rank last in the NFL in yards per game (4.5), while Miami has the second-highest yards-per-play mark in the league with Philadelphia.

key trend: Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight win.

Over/Under total

Miami’s preseason breakout shifted that total from where it was in the spring. Originally, the total for this head-to-head was 44, but opened at 48.5 prior to Week 3. Tua Tagovailoa’s previously questionable status may have been the reason that total has dropped somewhat. Now that he’s expected to play, it will be interesting to see if that number increases.

The selection: Over 47.5. Here only slightly inclined. Miami’s offense has shown it can explode at any moment, but Tagovailoa’s thrashing dulls its potential a bit. Meanwhile, the Bengals arguably have a top-five roster of ability-position players, but they haven’t peaked yet. Both teams are in the top 10 in the NFL in points per game, with the Dolphins averaging 27.7 points per game and the Bengals averaging 21.3. If they’re just playing to their averages, we’ll go over here.

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key trend: Over is 6-0 in Bengals last 6 games after a straight win by Bengals by more than 14 points.

Props by Tua Tagovailoa

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  • Passing yards: 256.5 (above -111, below -123)

Tagovailoa’s health has shrunk his prop market tremendously at the time of writing this article. He has exceeded that number in two of his three games this season. The only exception came last week when he was in and out of the game due to a possible concussion. If he plays a full game – and by all means check his status before placing that bet – he should be able to hit that mark. The Dolphins QB is the best quarterback this secondary has faced this season, and he’s allowing 9.9 yards per close over three weeks.

Joe Burrow props

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  • Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (above -174, below +126)
  • Passing yards: 275.5 (above -117, below -117)
  • Frenzied courtyards: 11.5 (above -117, below -117)
  • pass attempts: 35.5 (above -127, below -108)
  • Longest passport completion: 37.5 (above -113, below -121)
  • completions: 24.5 (above -109, below -125)
  • Interruptions: 0.5 (above +104, below -142)

It feels like this could be a back-and-forth game between these two teams that should force Burrow to fall behind and make a bunch of passes. He has exceeded that total in each of his three games this season. Additionally, Burrow has attempted 35 or fewer passes in 12 of his career games (41.3%). The Dolphins are also giving up 297.7 passing yards per game this season, the second most in the NFL. With that in mind, Over on Burrow’s passing attempts and passing yards deserve close attention.

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Player Props to Consider

Tyreek Hill Total Receiving Yards: Over 70.5 (-123). It was an odd weekend for Hill in Week 3 as he saw just four goals and caught two passes. I think that’s the outlier and expect his goal percentage to be similar to what we saw in the first two weeks when he was averaging 12.5 goals per game. If he sees that workload, continues to catch about 72.4% of those targets, and sticks to his 15.1 yards per reception average, he’ll fly past that number.

Joe Mixon Total Receiving Yards: Over 21.5 (-127). Mixon is averaging 6.6 goals per game this season and faces a Dolphins defense that just gave up 143 receiving yards to running backs last week.

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