Europa League best bets and preview

Arsenal drew 2-2 in Portugal last week and Jake Osgathorpe takes a look at the second leg and offers the best bets of…

Football Betting Tips: Europa League

2 points Both teams to score at 19/20 (Overall)

1pt Manuel Ugarte to be carded at 5/2 (Sky Bet)

1pt Pedro Goncalves scores anytime at 11/2 (Unibet)

Skybet Odds | Paddy power | Betfair Sportsbook

The first leg of this duel was extremely entertaining and a 2-2 draw was an extremely fair result based on the quality of chances created by each team (xG: SPO 2.09 – 1.94 ARS).

Both teams played attacking front-line football and I suspect we’ll see something similar in the Emirates BOTH TEAMS MEET the main game of this preview.

This is a bet that has landed in 10 of Arsenal’s 13 league home games this season, with the Gunners delivering 1.15 xGA per game over the course of the campaign.

Interestingly, Mikel Arteta’s side have been looking increasingly vulnerable at home lately as they have delivered at least 1.7 xGA in their last four games at the Emirates and let’s not forget they have faced Everton and Bournemouth in that time.

Arsenal v Sporting Lisbon (agg: 2-2)

Kick-off time: Thursday 20:00 GMT

TV Channel: BT Sport 2

Sporting Lisbon have created a wealth of chances in the last few games and while the Portuguese league isn’t on the same level as the Premier League, the fact that they’ve accumulated 2.32 xGF per game over the last nine games is impressive .

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That’s because Ruben Amorim’s side struggled early in the season, averaging just 1.76 xGF per game in their first 15 games. So they are at their peak right now and the way they managed to create chances in the first leg suggests we should see something similar here .

Arsenal have incredible attacking talent and process of their own so should break through their visitors meaning a BTTS replay is worth backing with a touch of chance.

With goals on the menu, let’s take a look at the goalscoring markets and one player stands out with a whopping 11/2 TO MEET ANYTIME.

That is PEDRO GONCALVESSporting Lisbon’s top scorer this season.

Generally used in midfield, the Portugal international breaks up in a very attacking 3-4-3 formation, scoring 12 times in the Primeira Liga and twice in two Europa League competitions.

Domestically he is Sporting’s xG/95 leader at 0.48, which is reinforced by penalties, but we have to see that as a huge advantage when backing a goalscorer.

Goncalves is his team’s designated penalty taker and if we exclude penalties he still averages a .29 non-pen xG/95, which is still high for a player playing in a two-man midfield.

He has scored seven goals in 12 Liga and Europa League games since the restart so is a man on form and is certainly benefiting from the upswing in the whole of Sporting’s xG process, allowing him to play on 11/2. looks too big to let him run wild.

One final bet of this preview comes from the card markets, where CARD MANUEL UGARTE looks on the big side at 5/2 with Sky Bet.

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The Uruguayan missed the first leg due to suspension – always a good sign when backing a player about to be carded – meaning if he gets a yellow card here he won’t miss the first leg of the next round if his team advances.

Ugarte plays in midfield with the more attacking Goncalves and does a lot of the so-called “dirty work” and therefore often finds himself in the referee’s notebook.

The 21-year-old has been booked 12 times in 30 domestic and European games this season, averaging 0.48 cards per 95 minutes and that average would see a price of just over odds-aggeim so that’s 5/2 here huge.

Arsenal v Sporting Lisbon best bets and result prediction

  • 2 points Both teams to score at 19/20 (Overall)
  • 1pt Manuel Ugarte to be carded at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
  • 1pt Pedro Goncalves scores anytime at 11/2 (Unibet)

Outcome Prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Sporting Lisbon (Sky Bet Odds: 11/1)

Odds correct at 1830 GMT (15/03/23)

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