With Day 1 of the NCAA tournament taking center stage, the NBA is still rolling in the background. Only one of Thursday’s matchups makes the national TV circuit — Magic vs. Suns (10 p.m. ET) on NBA TV — but there are five games scheduled in total.
Action Network’s NBA analysts are focusing on three of those games for their best bets today, seeing value in a player prop and two spread bets. They break down their expert picks for Thursday below.
NBA odds and best bets
Denver Nuggets versus Detroit Pistons
Joe Dellera: Killian Hayes has played with much more volume while Jaden Ivey has missed recent games due to the league’s health and safety protocols. In the last three games that Ivey missed, Hayes averaged 15.6 points per game; However, Ivey is expected to return today and is listed as likely.
Ivey is clearly the best offensive player for the Pistons with their current roster and should take on the central offensive role. In Hayes’ last 10 games alongside Ivey, he’s averaged a paltry 10.3 points per game and has fallen below his 13.5-point prop in nine straight games.
If you have Bet365 at your disposal, score less than 9.5 points in the low score category. He’s under that line 61% of games with Ivey, and (+290) gives him about a 25% chance of going down. The line is too high.
Denver should dominate this game front to back and I expect Hayes will struggle with significantly reduced volume on Ivey’s return.
Sacramento Kings vs. Brooklyn Nets
Chris Baker: The Nets’ matchup with the Kings was good as they did a great job of limiting opposing 3-pointers in the post-Kevin Durant/Kyrie Irving era. In the 15 games they’ve played without Durant and Irving, they rank second in the NBA in opposing 3-point attempt rate.
Sacramento’s offense relies on spacers around Sabonis and Fox, but most of these guys aren’t particularly effective when you force them to put the ball on the floor and play inside the 3-point line. The Nets need to chase these guys away and force them to play with the dribble tonight.
In color, the Nets have one of the best rim protectors in the game in Nic Claxton. Claxton should do a good job color changing Saboni’s recordings and also contain some of Fox’s drives. Another added benefit of having Claxton center is that he can potentially change some of the DHO moves that keep the Kings offense moving. The Nets defense should be able to cause some problems for this Kings offense and force them out of their normal flow on offense.
Offensively, the Nets are up against a defense that ranks 26th in the NBA despite playing the easiest opposing attack schedule this season. The Kings have been unimpressive defensively all year and have struggled to defend the 3-point line of late. Over their last 15 games, they have ranked 27th in opponent’s 3-point allowable attempt rate (40%) and 3-point allowable accuracy (39.8%). That’s a problem when you’re facing a Nets team that’s fielding so many 3’s and I expect the Nets to capitalize on that.
Also, I think this Nets team is slightly underrated as they have played 10 of their 15 games away together. They’ve been out for most of March, playing six of their last 10 against top 10 net rating teams. Being back home should be a breath of fresh air and I expect them to cover this short number.
Back the Nets to cover -2 against a Kings team in a tough back to back here in Brooklyn. Play this down to -3.
Orlando Magic vs. Phoenix Suns
Malik Smith: The Orlando Magic are in the middle of a four-game road trip that continues Thursday in Phoenix with a game against the Suns.
Orlando suffered a tough 132-114 loss to the Spurs on Tuesday. This was the Magic’s fourth loss in their last five games and dropped to 13th place in the Eastern Conference.
However, Phoenix hasn’t played much better. The Suns enter this matchup after losing three games in a row, a losing streak that comes after Phoenix won its first four games of the month.
It’s clear none of these teams are going in the right direction to go into this matchup, but I think Orlando is capable of keeping this game close.
The Magic are 16-9-1 against the spread against Western Conference opponents, the fifth best ATS record in the league. Orlando is also 17-13-1 ATS as an away underdog this season.
Additionally, Orlando have held their own once against Phoenix this season, beating the Suns 114-97 in November.
The Suns are fighting at both ends of the court and have no perimeter presence outside of Devin Booker. I think that opens the door a bit for an Orlando team that’s been playing well on offense lately. I would play the spread down to 5.5.
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