Fantasy baseball – How to approach MLB rule changes for 2023

Grinding out the final week to bring home your fantasy baseball championship is the primary goal for managers right now, but it won’t be long before attention is shifted to planning in keeper and dynasty formats. While it’s always a challenge, the new MLB rules changes bring even more considerations to the fantasy table. What follows is a general review of how to design a keeper or dynasty freeze list and then some ways to get a head start on your league mates by speculating how the new rules may affect roster construction and drafting strategy.

Before diving in, it’s important to distinguish between keeper and dynasty leagues. There isn’t a textbook definition, but dynasty leagues involve keeping your players in perpetuity while keeper formats are characterized by frequent roster turnover via expiring or cost-prohibitive contracts. After the initial draft, most of the players available in a dynasty format are emerging prospects and fringe veterans. Meanwhile, a keeper league draft has everything from established stars to fledgling prospects. The objective of a dynasty league is designing a roster capable of competing for several seasons while a keeper league has a shorter window to win, but the ability to retool is much faster.

Player evaluation in each format is similar. The difference is freeze list construction. One of the tenets of a keeper league freeze list is favoring hitting over pitching. In a true dynasty league, rostering a couple of elite starting pitchers is paramount, and since they usually aren’t available via trade, the key is drafting them as prospects or identifying under the radar arms on the verge of a breakout. Holdover players in keeper leagues often address a position or categorical strategy, both of which may be affected by the impending MLB rules changes.

Prospecting in the Arizona Fall League

Opening day in the Arizona Fall League (AFL) is Monday, October 3. The AFL is a developmental league run by MLB with six teams situated in the Phoenix area. All 30 MLB clubs send players, ranging from top prospects to those needing more playing time after missing much of the summer due to injury. The former group is of prime interest to fantasy managers, though it’s helpful to know which pitchers compiled more innings when anticipating their 2023 workload.

I attended my first AFL game in November 2000. I witnessed an unknown player send a ball over the trees at the back of the left field berm in Scottsdale Stadium. I’ve returned to the AFL every season since, but no one has come anywhere close to that moonshot. That unknown player? Albert Pujols. The AFL has also given an early entry on the fantasy radar to the likes of Mike Trout, Buster Posey, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, Ronald Acuna, Max Fried and many others.

Mainstream coverage of the AFL has grown over the years, peaking in 2022 with the addition of a Chase Field tripleheader on October 15, a home run derby on November 5 and a championship play-in semifinal on November 11. These are in addition to the standard Fall Stars game on November 6 and the AFL Championship game on November 12. The results of each of these events are secondary to the opportunity to learn more about the players potentially strengthening your dynasty and keeper league farm roster.

Rules Changes and Player Evaluation

In 2023, the fantasy landscape will no doubt be altered by the changes to the game.

Here are the main differences:

• A more balanced schedule with fewer division games and including series against every other team.

• Legislating the defensive shift.

• Introduction of a pitch clock.

• Limiting the number of pickoff attempts.

• Bigger bases.

Balanced schedule

Although it is difficult to quantify without having a crystal ball to unveil the eventual composition of each team, the quality of each division will differ. Currently, pitching is thought to be hardest in the AL and NL East and easiest in the AL and NL Central. The relative disparity may change in the offseason, but big picture-wise, the same will likely hold true next season.

The primary fantasy repercussion is the opposition will weaken for some starting pitchers while it improves for others. For example, some AL East pitchers get a discount or are simply avoided since they may draw three to five starts against the potent Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox lineups, all in favorable hitting venues. Not to mention, the Orioles are on the rise while the Rays may not light up the scoreboard, they’re not a cakewalk either. With only 13 divisional games scheduled against each team, starters are less likely to draw an opponent more than two or three times, instead facing lesser lineups, at least in the aggregate. The manner to take advantage is trying to acquire AL East hurlers. A couple of intriguing possibilities are Jose Berrios and Gerrit Cole as both are coming off seasons down relative to expectations. On the prospect side, moving the left field fence in Camden Yards makes this harder, but Orioles prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall are more alluring with a more balanced schedule.

The opposite is true of the AL and NL Central as their aggregate opposition is likely to be better. Selling high is easy when the reason for the success is tied to good fortune such as a low BABIP or high LOB%. Doing so is more difficult on Brad Keller, since his breakout is supported by underlying metrics and Shane Bieber, who looks to have successfully learned to pitch and not just rely on superior stuff. However, both are apt to encounter more daunting lineups next season so even if they match their 2022 skills, the outcomes are earmarked to suffer.

Acting on this involves speculation. However, if you are approaching this logically, there is a solid opportunity to take advantage of a league mate naïve to the likelihood of the quality of opponent paradigm.

Shifting priorities

Beginning in 2023, there must be two infielders on either side of the keystone, all with their cleats on the infield dirt or grass/turf. Overloading one side is no longer allowed. The rover outfielder will cease to exist. However, teams will still have their third baseman positioned where the shortstop usually plays with the shortstop as close to the other side of the bag as possible, along with other non-standard, but within the rules alignments.

Identifying batters most influenced by the legislation may seem straightforward, but it isn’t as clear as perceived. The offseason will be replete with studies gauging player’s batting average without the shift. Statcast data and spray charts will be analyzed, but there is one major hang-up. Where the defense was aligned in 2022 (and prior seasons) is known, but where they will play in 2023 is just speculation.

Decreeing a lefty swinger would have collected 13 more hits lost to the shift assumes knowing there would not have been a defender able to make a play without the shift. Unfortunately, no one is certain. Not to mention, some batters (and pitchers) will change their approach next season. As such, I’m personally hesitant to put much creed in unearthing the batters most likely helped or hurt from the shift. Trust me, it will be factored into the 2023 projections, but it’s not going to be a principal aspect of my keeper and dynasty decisions. This is something that will need a few years to flesh out.

Something to look for in keeper and dynasty formats are team managers adamant specific players will benefit from or be hindered by shift legislation. This could result in differing expectations for players, paving the way for fruitful trade negotiations. A way to test this hypothesis is searching your roster for a player likely to be helped by the new shift rules and put him on the block. If someone buys into the notion he’ll benefit, engage and see what happens. Similarly, scan everyone else’s roster for players other may expect to suffer and make an offer. Waiting until the inevitable articles and podcasts listing their players to be helped or hurt is a viable approach, since the certainty of the contentions is in question, along with the strong chance variance masks any tangible change next season (hence the need for multiple campaigns to more accurately assess the ramifications).

A latent offshoot of shift legislation is reverting to more athleticism in the middle infield. Scarcity used to be a component of fantasy baseball. Specifically, the offensive potential of middle infielders waned in comparison to corner infielders and outfielders. As such, their draft stock was adjusted based on a lower replacement level at second base and shortstop. This has not been a consideration for over 10 years as baseball has deemphasized defense up the middle, in large part due to increased shifting where positioning masks lack of range. It may take a few years, but more agile and less powerful players may again populate the middle infield, reintroducing scarcity. While paying more heed to middle infield prospects still exists, it pales in comparison to the level 10 years ago. Prescient fantasy managers should take advantage and adjust prospect rankings to again favor shortstops most likely to remain at the position as well as the second baseman with the best combination of hitting and fielding skills.

Sometimes, crime does pay

The final three rule changes will be lumped together with the likeliest consequence involving stolen bases. Everything discussed so far transcends all scoring formats. Stolen bases may seem more concerning to those in rotisserie or category based head-to-head scoring but getting a feel for players is integral to points formats.

Put together, a pitch clock, limiting pickoff attempts and bigger bases screams more stolen bases. Shift legislation says hello as another upshot could be returning to small ball with more singles and fewer homers and strikeouts populating the box score. More steals beg two questions: from who and how is drafting strategy affected?

Addressing the first is mostly speculation. Personally, I don’t expect the top base stealers to greatly benefit. They already run at nearly every opportunity and the bases being four-and-a-half inches closer doesn’t matter. Projecting them for a few more shouldn’t change their draft ranking. Sure, their expected earnings may increase a buck or two, but even if this slots them higher on a list based on expected earnings, you shouldn’t be drafting a somewhat arbitrary price, but rather a player expected to provide a bunch of steals (not a specific number, but a lot).

It seems to me the players standing to benefit the most are those in the midrange whose attempts are curtailed by the greater chance they’re caught compared to those on the high end. Putting a number on it, players averaging 17-to-23 bags are clearly capable of a successful pilfer. If they can swipe 17, why not 25? If 23, why not 30? Chances are, they’re adept at choosing when to take off, decreasing the possibility of being thrown out. With a slightly shorter distance to cover, and pitchers being more reticent to throw over to first, the success rate tips in favor of the runner, which should lead to more chances.

To emphasize, this is one man’s opinion. However, this line of thinking shapes freeze lists and draft strategy. Isn’t winning more satisfying when your own thinking is the driving force?

While I’m not contending the following will happen, if my instincts are right, it should come to fruition. Please note, this is most relevant to standard rotisserie league scoring. More swipes as suggested above will add to the draft-worthy pool, and resultant standings. From a pricing perspective, an individual stolen base loses value. My theory involves the top stolen base contributors being unaffected, so their expected earnings drop. However, even though a steal in a vacuum will be worth less next season, those increasing their total see their fantasy production increase. This information feeds into my keeper and draft plans.

The catch is what was just detailed is already the prevailing approach. The typical plan is avoiding the stolen base specialist types and compiling steals from several hitters, hopefully addressing the category adequately before drafting a vintage Billy Hamilton type becomes a necessity. That said, if the 35 HR/10 SB guy was preferred over the 25/20 guy this season, their ranking flips next season. Similarly, when deciding between two similarly values players, I’ll keep the one expected to steal more bases.

This may seem counterintuitive. Why freeze steals when more steals will be available? With more steals in the player pool, more will be needed to place in the same spot in the standings next season. This line of thinking was prevalent in reverse for the past several seasons, and it was a flawed approach. The assumption was there will always be power available. However, more homers in the pool means more are needed to accrue points in the category.

The takeaway here isn’t to make a list of all the 2022 players ending with 17-23 steals and target them next season. The lesson is taking the time to understand the 2023 rules changes and decide how you think it will affect the game, then apply that in a fantasy sense and generate a plan for your freeze lists and draft plans. Doing so gets a jump on your competition, which is always a good thing.

Don’t worry, this isn’t the final word on keeper and dynasty strategies. Once the 2023 player pool is defined, we’ll help your 2023 keeper and dynasty teams dominate.