If: 5:49 p.m. PDT
How to see: CBS; MarchMadness.com; Outstanding+
Zachary Cohen: Miami is one of the most impressive offensive teams in the nation, as the Hurricanes rank fifth in college basketball on KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric.
However, UConn is ranked 11th in the nation in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, and the Huskies happen to be 16-6 ATS when facing teams shooting at least 45% from the ground this season.
UConn won those games with an average of 10.8 PPG, so Dan Hurley’s team didn’t have much trouble beating opponents who could score the basketball. The Huskies are also 18-9 ATS when facing teams with winning records this year, and they’ve beaten those opponents by an average of 10.1 PPG.
This UConn team is just structured differently than many other programs, with Adama Sanogo, a grown male of color. The Hurricanes have no one like him, and his physicality should be an issue for Miami — even Norchad Omier.
The same goes for the length the huskies are during their rotation. UConn doesn’t play with many undersized players, which should help the team come out and deny every shot from Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack and Jordan Miller.
This also seems to be a game Jordan Hawkins should thrive in. The Hurricanes aren’t defending the perimeter at all, so Hawkins will get some good looks from deep. Don’t be surprised if he goes for at least 20 points and hits some threes.
🏀 Tip: Connecticut -5.5
Adam Burke: I’m naturally skeptical about expecting a lot of points in a game played in a football stadium. In fact, it’s one of the reasons I like the state of San Diego. However, this game between Miami and UConn is very different and I think we should get a back and forth high score thriller.
UConn’s best attribute throughout the tournament was its size. The Huskies don’t have a traditional point guard, but virtually everyone who plays important minutes is 6ft 5 or taller and contributes on both ends of the floor. I’m not sure size will matter as much against Miami’s fast guards as it does against teams like Gonzaga and Arkansas. Of course, the Razorbacks missed some decent looks and were 15 of 47 from two-point range in that game, so they could have at least kept their share of the scoring bargain.
Miami should be able to get some dribbling penetration here and Jim Larrañaga is aware that he should try to play in the switching game and pick up the pace as much as possible. In this tournament, Miami has scored at least 1,219 points per possession against Indiana, Houston and Texas, all of which are considered good defensive teams. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Hurricanes could get to UConn for a point per possession for speed.
I wouldn’t be shocked if UConn’s offensive barrage continues either. Miami is 243rd in 2P% defense and 132nd in 3P% defense. This is a team to absolutely score, and UConn has been extremely efficient on offense since mid-January, including four games with at least 1,117 PPP in the NCAA tournament.
The Huskies should get plenty of offensive rebounds in this game to increase their chances of scoring. I think Miami will get open looks because they share the ball and their speed on rebounds. The Hurricanes are also not as three-satisfied as some teams, with a three-pointer average of 34.3%. They’re able to get higher looks percentages, much like they did against Texas in a game where they only had eight three-point attempts.
🏀 Selection: Over 149
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