FREE: Belmont Selections: Saturday 20th August
Some much needed sunshine following Wednesday’s downpour preceeds Saturday’s racing which should return the track to a soft 6 come Race 1. Rail goes out to the 6m after being named in the true up until last night (well done all involved) and really light winds that shouldn’t impact the pattern of the day.
Race 1 – 12:33PM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK PLATE (1400 METRES)
9. Cherry’s A Star – 2. Rejuva King – 6. Uncle Gerard – 1. It’s All A Rumour
Cherry’s A Star
Maybe a little left field, but Cherry’s A Star is actually the horse I most want to be with here in the opener. Loved the trials prior to the first up run and although disappointing on face value, I’m not sure handled the really Heavy conditions which we shouldn’t be faced with on the weekend. If we go back a few steps, she’s hit the line in a trial just as well as a couple of very promising young horses in Tiffany Street (a horse whose level of ability we’ve seen) and Saloon Bar, who will be the worst kept secret in WA racing once he steps out to the races eventually. Drawn the inside here, Blinkers go on, I’m expecting a much improved performance and think from what I’ve seen she is more than capable of measuring up in this grade, will just need some galloping room once they straighten for home. Anything north of $8-9 will get me.
1 Unit @ $8.00+ BSP
Rejuva King was a strong win last start when not getting a lot of room once they straightened for home, once he found clear air really attacked the line. 1400m shouldn’t be an issue for him, most important aspect for me here is he is drawn to stay out of that traffic from barrier 6 a horse like him (who is always a tad slow away) would face from an inside draw. In the right yard to be going on with it.
Uncle Gerard is another horse I have time for, loved the way he attacked the line last start, still a little green and raw but he’s got plenty of ability and just needs some luck from a sticky draw for Tash who is riding super to be in the finish.
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Race 2 – 1:13PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
3. Reign Of Fire – 1. Astro Warrior – 2. Kick A Goal Son – 5. Keep Attacking
In terms of the Westspeed races that generally don’t change much week to week, the change of season and the 3yos now eligible for these races as 4yos has breathed some new life into them.
Reign Of Fire is a horse that is incredibly well-placed back into this grade, this is in fact the lowest grade of race he has faced in his 22 start career. Wasn’t a bad run last weekend in Heavy 10 conditions in a 66+, we will certainly be on an improving track come Saturday and the last time he backed up off 7 days he was a winner in 66+ grade. Will be spotting the leading pair a bit of a start from the draw here (might be difficult to make ground early?) and a few lingering queries around whether he has come back the same horse, but this is very good placement. Will give a good gauge into the track pattern early doors.
Astro Warrior is very well suited in these Westspeed races, really strong win last start backed up on figures when he’s actually run the race fastest L200m section after leading which you don’t see too often and they didn’t go overly slow in that race either. Dais a good line through that form Wednesday, draws for a very similar run in transit here and looks the hardest to beat from up on speed.
Kick A Goal Son has been trialling the house down, certainly come back in terrific order for Jason Miller, may just need this run to really come on but he looks in for a super prep.
Race 3 – 1:53PM BOWLS A SPORT FOR LIFE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
1. Mood Swings – 3. Mercanto – 4. Don’t Fuss – 2. Eeyore Wayz
Narrowed this one down to a 2 horse race in my market between Mood Swings and Mercanto.
Mood Swings
You can forgive him for last start when missing away, doing a mountain of work to get to the breeze outside Nowhiteflag who was flying along, before running out of petrol late on a genuine bog track, think he just spat the dummy a bit there and wasn’t a happy horse. The run prior when 3 wide throughout was massive and is much more the Mood Swings we know. Horse has a tendency to be slow away every now and then as we saw last start, but if he begins better here under Kesh with Glasgow Girl not jumping so well herself of late, he finds the top here and from there it could be race over. Will certainly appreciate some improving track conditions, a quality horse that when allowed to find the top is incredibly hard to get past.
3 Units WIN
Mercanto is the obvious danger. Terrific run last weekend on the completely chopped up, inside section of the track that was quicksand by that stage of the day. Gets a senior jockey back on who he runs for, maps for a box-seat run here potentially even on the back of Mood Swings if Glasgow Girl does miss away again. Backing up off the 7 days is a new formula they haven’t yet tried with him, don’t think his best form is too much inferior to that of Mood Swings, should be a really good contest.
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Race 4 – 2:29PM LOVE THE BOWLO HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
4. Universal Pleasure – 6. Sunnysilk – 1. Double Jeopardy – 2. First Law
1000m scamper with a number of horses engaged who love to mix their form, great recipe for betting success.
Universal Pleasure resumes and although the trial to the eye was maybe a tad underwhelming, 1st up last preparation ran 2nd to Angelic Miss, beating home Sniparoochy, Gunmetal Grey and Cristal Dane to name a few in the process. Ran some good races in a strong mares series when last in work, drawn barrier 1 here lands leaders back, the $5 available looks a backable price for a horse that I think has a class edge on a fair few of these.
Sunnysilk is the other runner I think is over the odds. Never got clear air in a 66+ last start when beaten 4L Spirited Session. This is certainly her right grade in Graduation company and finds a nice race shape to do so, plenty of speed on up front, drawn out, Azzopardi on, she can park off a hot speed and if they are stopping late be the one that zaps them.
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Race 5 – 3:05PM KRISTINA KRSTIC GRABS GOLD HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
4. Crescent City – 8. Olden – 9. Truly Reliable – 3. Sugar Cain
Crescent City
Another race I narrowed down to two key winning chances (more like 1 now, with the key scratching of Our Norman)
I loved the run of Crescent City last start, stepping straight from the mile up to the 2200m off a 28 day break. Took the drop in behind Our Norman there and after hitting a little flat spot rounding for home, really picked up again nicely late to be strong through the line. Carbery jumps off a horse he has a really good affinity with in Sugar Cain to ride him here, which is a good push in itself, gets 1.5kgs off Our Norman for a marginal defeat (no longer going around in this), now has a run at the journey under the belt and another great draw to be right there stalking the speed. 2000m arguably more suitable for him, I think he looks very hard to beat.
2 Units WIN
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Race 6 – 3:40PM THE PROFESSIONALS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
6. Honey Dew – 1. Let’s Galahvant – 7. Honey Dew – 3. Strike Now
Current market here I feel is pretty much bang on.
The win of Honey Dew last start just completely took me. Not only due to the fact that she was 3 deep throughout and exploded away from them to win by 5, but she was parked 3 deep throughout on a very hot speed, you just don’t see horses that can do that. Barrier 2 here, 2/2 with O’Donnell in the saddle, if she so much as reproduces that run onto a dryer track then I think she wins again
A few question marks around what she did beat that day, but the data certainly backed up the strength of the visual.
Alsephina brings big X factor and upside, posted some really strong figures in her debut campaign and only came undone over this trip behind Warm N Fuzzy who well and truly went on to frank that form. Recent trial, from what you can see given it was filmed by old mate on his iPhone, looked to be really strong and the time was fast for the day.
Lets Galahvant is flying, although this is tougher. Could potentially get away with murder here and get across very cheaply if nothing else wants the lead, which again, rinse and repeat, would make him very hard to get past but if they have to settle for the breeze then I think Taj is up against it, good acid test for him.
Race 7 – 4:15PM AFGRI EQUIPMENT HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
5. Allez Allez – 1. Blinder – 8. Advanced – 2. Vane Tempest
Really interesting market that has assembled itself here, headed by the cerise and white vortex with Advanced at a very short quote resuming off a nice trial win.
Advanced looks progressive, the trial win was nice and in good time, he’s an absolute wet tracker but in saying that, he’s belted a field of proper battlers at Northam on a very heavy track that has produced zero form (zero half decent form anyway) and then went under as a $2.30 favourite when every conceivable last time we saw him albeit in a strong little contest. Gut feel says he’s not in Bob’s top bracket of horses, maps to sit 3 back the fence here in the run, might get a little tight for room at a crucial stage, $2.10? For me, that’s well and truly unders, which brings me to a couple of runners, both well in the double figure range, that I would much rather be on here at their current prices.
Allez Allez was huge 1st up off the back of a really solid trial in a terrific form race behind Phanta and Multinational, beaten only 1.7L with you’d think, improvement to come. Loved his last 100m there, he absolutely savaged the post and from barrier 3 here maps an absolute treat from the box-seat. His form says his 1st up performance prep to prep always brings him on, $14.00 is outstanding value, keen to have something on him at that price.
1.2 Units WIN
Blinder is the other way over the odds at $16 who maps for a very similar run to Allez Allez.
Went 1st up into the Jockey Celebration Stakes behind Ginger Flyer, Savage One and Nowhiteflag, only beaten just over 3L, drops back to a 66+ here, maps to also land very close to the box-seat in running and is a winner with 60kgs when he raced in Melbourne. I think that form he comes through is as strong as you will find at the moment, $16.00 looks a great price to dutch them up and take on the favourite, bit more bang for your buck in doing so.
0.8 Units WIN
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Race 8 – 4:50PM AMELIA PARK – BLUE SPEC STAKES (1600 METRES)
4. Ginger Flyer – 8. Savage One – 7. Phanta – 1. Dig Deep
Could have marked this race with 3 equal favourites, if you wanted to sum it up in a sentence.
Might sound contradictory given how much over the past couple of weeks I have harped on about him, but took a very slight set against Phanta, given for the first time this prep he isn’t going to find the rail out in front and he might be a little suspect stepping out to the mile.
Ginger Flyer is in an incredible patch of form, and if she is able to jump with them here, something that is starting to become a “big if” with her, then I think the 1×1 is hers for the taking and from there she is going to take the world of holding out.
Which then brings you to Savage One, who gets a 2kg swing on Ginger Flyer and had no right to be as strong as he was late last start sitting in the breeze on a hot tempo being set by Nowhiteflag.
Maps to find the rail out in front here in his favoured role with no speed drawn underneath, Phanta obviously drawn to his outside, but then again, I still don’t think I would want to be on him if Ginger Flyers begins well and lands in the box-seat.
Watching the market late will be crucial for me here, big go comes for one of the above and one really gets out, I’ll be happy to back the value runner as there really isn’t much between any of them.
Race 9 – 5:25PM BPL PERTH SUNS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
12. Never Sober – 3. Heart Of Coeur – 1. Catalpa – 10. Green And Shady
The last on the card every week for the last 6 weeks has been near on impossible, Perth Racing obviously not onboard with the concept of the punters blasting out in the get out.
Most obvious aspect here is the lack of a leader on paper, makes it even more messier to try and sort through.
Catalpa/My Fury/Never Sober the 3 most likely horses I feel to roll across to try and lead/sit prominently, Mr Mt Walker wont be far away either, last start winner.
One thing I will say, is that if Positive Impact is your favourite here from barrier 14, Never Sober can’t be a $21 chance.
Was every bit as good a run last start on a bog track at Pinjarra when never on the track and only beaten just over 1L by that runner, finds a race where he can roll to be on speed with no pressure, the Ash Maley stable is ticking along very well at the moment and you are getting over 4x the price? Not going to say that he wins but that price differential to me is wrong.
If Catalpa gets across cheap then he is going to be really hard to beat from that wide draw, while Green And Shady with the Pontiff going on from a good draw up to a mile isn’t impossible either. Heart Of Coeur goes in all quaddies, runs prior to last start more than good enough to be taking this out.
Good squaddie leg if you are still alive.
Staking Plan
- Race 1 Cherry’s A Star 1 Unit WIN @$8.00+ BSP
- Race 3 Mood Swings 3 Units WIN
- Race 5 Crescent City 2 Units WIN
- Race 7 Allez Allez 1.2 Unit WIN/Blinder 0.8 Units WIN
7 Units locked away, awaiting some more meat on the bone in Race 1.
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