How to respond, if Moscow now offers peace talks
February 24th will probably be remembered by all of us as a shocking day. Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine from the north, east and south. The only consolation in those shocking early days was that a group of military analysts, including Phillips P. O’Brien and Mike Martinquickly came to the conclusion that Russia could not win the war.
I was a bit skeptical because I feared my own confirmation bias. But these analysts provided good reasons for their conclusion, in contrast to much of the herd, which argued that Ukraine didn’t stand a chance. You have been confirmed. If anything, the Ukrainian army is doing even better than predicted.
Its success is crucial in convincing Ukraine’s more skeptical allies that the cost is worth it. How much optimism is appropriate now?
The scenario of a relatively quick defeat for Russia certainly seems more plausible than it was in August. Its skills are less than it appeared, there is a lack of manpower and morale, and there are no immediate remedies for these deficiencies. It’s hard to imagine how Vladimir Putin can survive major setbacks or outright defeat. Should this happen, Russia will face a major political crisis.
Ukraine’s allies should do their part to make this scenario a reality by providing more weapons to end the pain as soon as possible. A restoration of Ukraine’s globally recognized borders would be the best outcome for long-term stability and shows that this blatant assault on the European peace order has been repelled.
However, just betting on this scenario is not enough.
The war can go on much longer than we want. While Ukraine’s surprise attack in the northeast was a spectacular success, analysts tell us it was accomplished through subterfuge, agility and good morale rather than overwhelming force.
Russia can still inflict enormous damage on Ukrainian infrastructure. And it continues to wreak havoc on the Ukrainian economy every day.
With a protracted war possible, the Western discussion of possible negotiations is dangerously easy. Some keep arguing that the war could be ended if only Western states or Ukraine started negotiations and were willing to cede Ukrainian territory.
That’s a bad idea.
For one thing, it was never clear what this war was about. The Kremlin has given so many reasons that it is beyond the scope of this text to repeat them all. It is safest to assume that Putin is taking an opportunistic approach. If he could subjugate Ukraine, its culture and language, he would gladly do so.
If not, he could claim that the war concerns only Donbas affairs.
Offering him negotiations now would help him ease domestic pressure. He would portray it as Ukraine asking for peace. Internal opinion in Ukraine must also be taken into account. After all the Russian destruction and atrocities, it is politically impossible for his government to offer negotiations.
What if Moscow blinks first?
The situation would be far more complicated if the Kremlin offered to negotiate.
Many people would take such an offer as a sign of weakness and argue that it should be turned down. But that’s too easy. Many of Ukraine’s allies are democracies with complex public opinions. Keeping them united behind this just cause is a challenge.
A negotiation offer from the Kremlin could split the alliance.
In some countries, notably Germany and France, it would be difficult to persuade a public confronted with economic problems to ignore a political exit from the war and insist on a purely military solution.
A main argument for arms deliveries was that only a strong Ukraine could force Russia to the negotiating table. Now that Ukraine is stronger, one would argue that the possibility of negotiations should not be ignored.
It is therefore important to prepare for the scenario of a Russian offer, not least to inoculate the public debate against the propaganda value that Moscow tries to ascribe to such an offer.
The Kremlin would immediately present itself as a peace-seeking party and portray Ukraine as a country bent on endless wars.
An upside down picture, to be sure, but the Kremlin has had a fairly successful history of convincing many people of absurd arguments – not least that this war has some sort of justification. It may be that Ukraine should accept it on balance to keep the supporting alliance united.
The content of such negotiations would be even more complicated. They would reflect the military perspective at the time they started. Many friends of Ukraine rightly insist that only Ukraine should decide what it can offer to end the war. It is certainly not for others to debate what territories Ukraine should give up or what concessions, if any, it should make.
But it is also true that Ukraine’s allies have to make decisions about granting support and justify it to their people. Like war, negotiations can only succeed in the end if Ukraine and its allies remain united.
In short, we must be wary of Kremlin political maneuvers designed to exploit differences in Western public opinion. For this we need more debates and clearer views on how to react if Moscow opens a political route to this conflict.