How to spot a swing voter

Toh win a In American elections, a candidate must get at least one more vote than their opponent (unless they’re running for President). The parties have therefore focused on two groups in the debate on electoral strategy: grassroots voters and swing voters. Among the coveted archetypes of the latter group were the “football moms” of the 1990s and 2000s, and the suburbanites during most of the 2010s. As political polarization deepens, readers are forgiven for assuming that swing voters are a dying breed. In reality, they have been kept relevant through close elections, in which a small number of them can decide the outcome.

According to a scheme developed by VO Key Jr., a venerable American political scientist, in The Responsible Electorate, a book published posthumously on his behalf in 1966, voters can be divided into three groups. There are so-called “stand patterns” (partisans who vote for the same side year after year), “changers” and new voters. According to Mr. Key, between the 1940s and 1960s, changers made up one-eighth to one-fifth of voters.

Nowadays, the number of people switching is in the single digits. The economistAnalysis of polls conducted on our behalf by YouGov puts it at 3%. Additionally, 83% of voters who currently say they will “definitely” or “likely” vote in November remain pat. About 8% are new voters who didn’t vote in the 2020 election, and the remaining 7% are undecided.

For a group that makes up only one in 30 voters – and still only one in ten if you include the insecure ones – there is a lot of fuss made about swing voters. That’s fair: when voting intentions calcify, who’s really left to convince? Still, parties may be surprised by the characteristics of swing voters this year.

According to our survey, party switchers are a new breed of young, diverse Americans. Almost 14% are Hispanic and 18% are African American. They are less likely to have a college degree than the Standpatters, they are more masculine and urban. Half are under 45.

But what is perhaps most striking is their moderation: According to our survey, two-thirds describe themselves as moderate. The average swing voter this year is a young, uneducated Hispanic male living in a city who considers himself moderate.

But what does he care? Almost 30% say they care most about the economy and inflation, as do partisans, making this the main issue. The biggest difference is abortion; It is the most important issue for 9% of the partisans, but only for 4% of the changers. Carlos Odio of Equis Labs, a Latino-focused polling firm, says Latino voters believe the Democratic Party doesn’t talk about the economy as much as Republicans do, and they think the party may not value “hard work.” . However, the Republican Party has yet to convince her. The Senate drives in the direction they swing. ■