How to use the Daily Notes file
We made it friends.
The first normal off-season in a few years is on the books, and it’s time to play ball! Your Daily Notes team looks forward to helping you take home your master’s degree. Most of the format of this daily file will be the same as last season, but since we’ve refined some areas we thought we’d give you a description of each section and show you how best to apply it to managing your Fantasy -Baseball teams can use .
The three basic sections of each daily file remain the same:
Let’s take a quick tour of each of these sections and let you know what to expect.
what you need to know
Each day of the regular season, we highlight at least five things you need to know about that day’s slate. These articles are published in the afternoon for the next day’s game (e.g. Thursday’s table is published on Wednesday) and then updated in the morning with any relevant changes based on the previous day’s actions.
A new feature for the 2023 season is a “Bullpen Review” that will be included in the morning update. We’ll highlight the bullpens that are most likely to generate either a save or hold, and those whose primary helpers may not be available due to heavy workloads lately.
In other words, we will identify some helpers who have pitched in consecutive games or two of the previous three competitions as they will likely need some rest before pitching again. With this information, you can target other helpers from that team’s bullpen for a chance at a save or hold. Keep in mind that grips are now worth two points in our new default rating system.
In addition to any relevant changes and these bullpen notes, any extreme weather scenarios will be part of the morning update, which we expect to be released in time for you to make any necessary changes before lineups lock down for the day.
Daily launch pitch chart
We’ve made a few changes to our chart to make it easier to read and more useful to you, the fantasy baseball manager.
As in the past, each likely starting pitcher will be ranked according to their predicted ESPN Fantasy points, which are dictated by their matchup. New this season will be their squad percentage in the ESPN leagues. With smaller roster sizes in the standard ESPN game in 2023, there will be more pitchers available to stream each day than last year.
The W% column represents the team’s odds and not necessarily the starting pitcher’s odds. This is based on calculating Bill James’ Pythagorean Theorem using ESPN projections for runs scored and allowed. Keep in mind that Caesars Sportsbook, which gives us the ML (money line) and O/U (over/under), uses other factors to come up with their numbers, so they don’t always match ESPN’s projected results.
When it comes to relievers, one way to use the information in our chart is to use W% and ER (earned runs allowed) to pinpoint those relievers with the best chances of a save or hold. Research shows that saves and holds correlate best with W% and ERA, which is a better indicator than run differential as tight games clearly lead to more saves. Note that the ER column refers to the starting pitcher, but it is reasonable to assume that teams are likely to score fewer runs in games where they prefer to win, as the club’s better relievers tend to finish those games.
The IP, ER and K pillars are all specific to the starting pitcher and already built into their projected fantasy points. However, they are also useful for DFS and betting purposes. While all DFS sites use different rating systems, IP, ER, and K are usually an integral part of it. These numbers can also help you with prop betting, especially over/under bets.
Derek Carty’s matchup tip
Using daily projections from THE BAT X projection system, Carty provides information for daily fantasy, DFS and betting tips. Matchups, home ground, referees and weather are all integrated into the output. The best and worst hitters and pitchers at specific roster levels are provided for traditional daily fantasy leagues. DFS pitchers and stacks are provided along with a “Betting Tip of the Day” focused on prop betting.