Latest poll: Chris Hipkins’ popularity rises, Christopher Luxon tumbles, Greens the big winner

Chris Hipkins leads as preferred Prime Minister, while support for national leader Chris Luxon has tumbled in the latest political poll.

Hipkins rose four points to 27 percent as preferred prime minister in today’s One News Kantar poll, while Luxon fell five to 17 percent — its lowest since taking the role in late 2021.

Both major parties fell, with Labor slipping two points to 36 per cent while National slipped three points to 34 per cent.

The Greens, meanwhile, were the big winners, rising four points and reversing a recent downward trend, while Te Pāti Māori was also up two points to three percent.

The Greens now sit at 11 percent, while Act is up one percent to also 11 percent.

The results would give Labor and the Greens 60 seats – and National and Act 57.

With that, neither of the two traditional pairings could form a government, which requires a majority of the 120 seats.

According to the figures, only Labor and the Greens could then form a government with the support of Te Pāti Māori.

Of the parties outside Parliament, NZ First remained the most popular, rising a point to three per cent – still below the five per cent threshold.

In the preferred PM stakes, Act Party leader David Seymour received six per cent and NZ First leader Winston Peters three per cent.

Hipkins told 1News that the poll results show that Labor can not only realign priorities but also win this year’s election.

Hipkins said he would like to continue working with the Greens and that Labor has a “relatively constructive” working relationship with Te Pāti Māori.

Green Party deputy leader Marama Davidson told 1News her support came as the public turned their attention to climate change following this year’s devastating hurricanes.

Te Pāti Māori co-chair Rawiri Waititi told 1News they were “looking forward” to any talks with Labor and the Greens about working together.

Luxon, meanwhile, told 1News his decline and his support and rise for Hipkins is “understandable” given the recent attention and role the government has played in managing the natural disasters.

But the election is still “a long way away,” he said.

Luxon’s preferred PM ratings were better than those of former leaders Judith Collins and Simon Bridges, but far below those of John Key before he became prime minister in 2008.

1News’ last public Kantar poll in late January chronicled Hipkins’ first few weeks at the top job after Jacinda Ardern resigned.

In that poll, Labor had a five-point lead, rising to 38 percent, overtaking National at 37 percent.

Hipkins then went straight from zero to 23 percent as the preferred PM, while Luxon had fallen slightly to 22 percent.

In that January poll, Act was at 10 per cent (down 1), the Green Party was at 7 per cent (down 2) and NZ First was down to 2 per cent (down 2). Te Pāti Māori was 1 percent.

Today’s poll follows one released on Friday by the Taxpayers’ Union Curia, in which Labor took the lead for the first time since March 2022, taking 35.5 per cent – up 1.1 points from last month’s poll.

In that poll, National came in at 34.8 percent. Thanks to Act’s backing, National would still be in government in this election.

The small parties, however, were pressured: Act was at 9.3 percent, while the Greens hovered close to the 5 percent threshold, falling 2.1 points to 5.7 percent.

Of the smaller parties, NZ First had 4.2 per cent, New Conservatives 2.5 per cent, Top 1.7 per cent and the Māori Party 1.4 per cent.

The government announced today that it would spend $2 billion on a welfare package supporting Hipkins’ “bread and butter” to take the “bite” out of the rising cost of living. Hipkins also scrapped a number of policies to pay for the move, including speed limit reductions.

The package will keep the incomes of around 1.4 million New Zealanders in line with inflation and support pensioners, students, children and parents, and those on mainstream services.

It includes an additional $311 million to be spent over the next four years, allowing key benefits to increase in line with inflation — 7.22 percent — instead of the previously planned average wage increase, which was about $1.7 billion cost US dollars.

This increase in spending meant that a family with children on welfare would receive an additional $40.86 per week and a single parent would receive an additional $31.83 per week.

An increase in old-age pension means couples will receive an increase of more than $100 every two weeks, and individuals an additional increase of nearly $70.

In the last tenure, Labor attributed the main benefits to increases in average wages, which have traditionally risen faster than inflation.

Hipkins said the situation has now reversed, with inflation higher than the average wage increase of 6.24 percent.

“Cabinet this year agreed to provide additional support to this group by increasing key benefits by 7.22 percent in line with inflation,” Hipkins said.