Leeds United mailbag: 49ers takeover latest, Gracia future and Fruit Pastilles
Defeat befell Leeds United in the FA Cup on Tuesday so for them it’s a one-track season now — 14 games to make good their place in the Premier League and dodge relegation for the second year running.
All eyes are on the football but there are so many subplots to events at Elland Road as the run-in starts to unfold. The club have a new head coach, prospective new owners in the wings and, as ever, a huge amount riding on the matches that are left.
We opened a mailbag to take your questions and the answers to some of them are published below. We’re going to start with the proposed buyout of Leeds by 49ers Enterprises — because aside from Javi Gracia’s future prospects as head coach, nothing dominated the mailbag more…
Where are we at with the takeover? Apparently, there’s big money behind some of the investors in the 49ers’ investment fund. Do you have any more detail about any of them? (Oliver M)
OK, recap first. As it stands, Andrea Radrizzani still has a majority shareholding in Leeds but 49ers Enterprises, the investment arm of the San Francisco 49ers and minority shareholder at Elland Road, holds an option to buy Radrizzani out, in full, in January 2024 in a deal that would value Leeds at close to £500million ($598m). To give that figure some context, when Massimo Cellino bought the club in 2014, he paid £11m for 75 per cent for an overall valuation of £14.5million.
49ers Enterprises, though, decided to try and bring forward the timing of its buyout by attempting to conclude it this season. There were a couple of reasons for this. The first was that the group had the funding in place to finance the purchase so was ready to proceed. Our understanding from speaking to people involved is that the consortium it has put together includes around 10 different parties, each ready to commit between roughly £20million and £70million to the initial buyout — so bigger investors alongside smaller investors. It’s no secret that Peter Lowy is one of those involved. According to information given to us last month, there is one US political figure with Washington links in the background. At least one of the parties in an investment firm. But the name above the door would be 49ers Enterprises, which is fronting the process.
A second reason is that Leeds have substantial bills ahead of them this year, some of them instalments owed on transfers made during the past three seasons (Leeds like most clubs rarely, if ever, pay for a player up front. Most fees are staggered over a period of time.). Ideally, 49ers Enterprises wanted those pending costs to be factored into the price of a deal done now. But relegation has complicated everything because put simply, the deal as it was originally proposed and at the level of price Radrizzani wants is contingent on Leeds staying up. With 14 games to go, that’s far from guaranteed.
In short, Leeds would not be valued at half a billion pounds in the EFL and 49ers Enterprises, understandably, would not be prepared to pay that amount. There have been talks about finalising an agreement now but with a caveat in the contract that the takeover can only proceed in its present form if Leeds are still a Premier League club at the end of the season. In those circumstances, there’s a very strong chance that 49ers Enterprises officially take control from the beginning of July onwards.
And so the obvious question…
What happens to the 49ers’ takeover if Leeds are relegated? (Kenneth K)
This was also asked by Graham M and Harry A and it’s a very pertinent point of discussion. According to people spoken to by The Athletic, the struggle this season has not negatively affected 49ers Enterprises’ long-term interest in owning and running Leeds. There is, seemingly, a good chance that it would want to purchase the club even if Leeds went down. But those circumstances would require a different deal at a different price and at the stage when we published this article in January, there was no fixed agreement in place between Radrizzani and 49ers Enterprises about exactly what happens in those circumstances. Kenneth K made the point that I wouldn’t be able to definitively answer this and he’s right. For a while now it has felt like the big unknown — but if Leeds avoid relegation, that issue goes away.
If the club survive and survive comfortably, what are the plans for Gracia? Surely they wouldn’t just replace him if he does a good job? (Ryan T)
Steven P followed a similar train of thought, wanting to know if “big-name managers” would be on the agenda if 49ers Enterprises took over as planned. Krzysztof W asked whether Marcelo Gallardo would be an alternative.
Leeds considered Gallardo, the ex-River Plate manager, as an option after sacking Jesse Marsch last month but Gallardo didn’t want to start his next job mid-season (Southampton also got the same message from him when they dismissed Nathan Jones). But he’ll be available this summer and, no doubt, he’ll have offers on the table. He’s very well thought of in the game and Europe would be a fresh challenge.
When you clear away the smoke from Leeds’ rather fraught hunt for a head coach, it still seems Rayo Vallecano’s Andoni Iraola was the option they really wanted. Had the approach made to him in the days after Marsch left not been met with so much resistance from Rayo Vallecano, that’s the road Leeds would have taken. The club could conceivably go back to him in the summer.
The initial stage of Gracia’s contract runs to the end of this season, with the obvious target of keeping Leeds in the Premier League. If he does that convincingly the club will consider extending his stay. Gracia would also be minded to take an extension too. It was quite telling last week when he said that he didn’t want to be here simply because he had a contract — but if his tenure feels settled then I’d be surprised if the club were tempted to shake things up again. If Leeds are relegated then it’s going to be a summer of major change, let’s face it. All bets are off.
From the outside, it’s looked like the 49ers have been fairly passive in terms of the recent managerial situation. Given the large sums of money at risk if this season results in relegation, were they involved in the Gracia appointment? (Jarryd C)
They were. When Gracia pitched to the board and presented his ideas on the Sunday after the defeat at Everton, Paraag Marathe — Leeds’ vice-chairman and 49ers Enterprises president — was in the meeting. Various contacts have indicated that of all the people at Elland Road, Radrizzani was most convinced that Marsch had to be sacked (and Radrizzani first thought about a change after defeat to Aston Villa in January) but because of the setup in the boardroom and the pending takeover, virtually every major decision — on transfers, finances, head coaches — has to be taken by committee. Much of it directly affects the current and future value of the club. It was like that with Jack Harrison almost joining Leicester on deadline day. 49ers Enterprises was not convinced by the sense of that deal and it was scrapped at late notice after boardroom talks.
Would Victor Orta and Angus Kinnear stay on if the 49ers took over? Events of the last few weeks and misplaced faith in Marsch surely make it more likely that Victor will follow Andrea out the door. (Kieran M)
These are the sort of questions that 49ers Enterprises would need to answer themselves. All the noises to this point suggested that if and when the group took control, changes at the top would be gradual rather than sweeping from the outset. My impression for a long time was that Kinnear and Orta would stay on, certainly in the transitional period. 49ers Enterprises regarded them as assets. But given the way this season and last season have gone, there will have to be close scrutiny of the way Leeds are operating — and whether the setup is right for the longer term. It’s been a battle from the summer of 2021 onwards. To be fair, increased financial clout would allow the club to change how they work.
What’s going on with stadium redevelopment plans? It’s absurd that a club with our massive fanbase is still hobbled with a 36,000-capacity ground. (Graham S)
It’s been apparent for a while now that Leeds could fill a much bigger ground. You only have to look at the waiting list. It’s a frustration on two fronts. First, because a lot of would-be match-going fans cannot get tickets. And second, because the commercial advantages of a larger, more modern stadium would make a big difference to the club’s accounts. To answer this succinctly, stadium development will not start or move any further forward until a takeover goes through. It would be an expensive project. But a major upgrade is very much at the centre of 49ers Enterprises’ plans. It wants an improved ground and it wants to gradually push annual revenue much closer to the £400m mark.
What can you tell us about Rene Maric leaving, Phil? He seemed to have good ideas as a young coach. Why did they sack him but not Chris Armas? And is Armas still there? If so, what’s his role going to be? (Peter Y)
Armas is still at Leeds, a little over a month on from joining Marsch’s staff, but his role is unclear. He hasn’t been formally named as part of Gracia’s staff and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he moves on before long. He’d literally been in the door for less than a fortnight, whereas Maric had been on the scene from the start of the season. Leeds cleared out most of the backroom team following Marsch’s dismissal because a new head coach was always going to bring new assistants with him. Maric wouldn’t necessarily have fitted into that. But expect to see him back in the game soon. He’s a clever guy, a tactical mind, and having held a variety of roles as a No 2, I wonder if a head coach’s job will find him soon.
What’s the latest on Jack Harrison? Are we any closer to getting him tied down on a new contract yet? (David B)
The same was asked about Robin Koch, another player who Leeds want to tie to new terms. Leeds did what they often do in January, which was to delay contract discussions until the window closed to allow them to focus on recruiting new players, such as Weston McKennie. The intention was for talks with relevant first-team squad members to get going again last month, although it’s perfectly clear that the club have had other priorities on their plate since sacking Marsch. They won’t have been in a position to devote much time to contract extensions yet.
Harrison is an interesting case. You have to wonder how much the events of deadline day in January will encourage him to commit. There was a point late on where he thought he was about to be sold to Leicester, only for him to be called back from their training ground. Realistically, Leeds either agree improved terms with him or sell him in the summer. His contract is up in 2024 and given that he is 26, retaining him on his existing contract would risk losing him on a free transfer, which makes no financial sense. But they won’t be able to match the weekly wage Leicester were proposing to pay him.
Phil, this one seems to crop up all the time but what is the story with Adam Forshaw? Secondly, why do they block mobile phone signal in the stadium on match days? (Ronan F)
Forshaw has had another struggle with injuries this season and Leeds have a decision to make on him soon. His deal expires in the summer and there is an option to extend it by another 12 months but this season, he’s made two league starts and hasn’t played since Newcastle United away on New Year’s Eve.
As for the phone signal at Elland Road, there’s no MI5 aspect to this. You find this with most big stadiums — the number of people packed into a small area, all of them with mobile phones, means the networks can’t cope. Luckily, we have wifi in the press box. I’d probably better not give you the password.
Can you give us any insight on the feeling inside the club around Joffy? (Harvey H)
Krzysztof W also wanted to know about Charlie Cresswell’s future. Joe Gelhardt first. Leeds rate Gelhardt and still think he had a big role to play going forward. There’s no option in his loan for Sunderland to take him permanently. But he was playing infrequently under Marsch and Leeds recruited Georginio Rutter in January so Sunderland was a way of getting him minutes at a decent level. He scored his first goal against Rotherham a week ago.
Cresswell’s situation is more uncertain. He’s on loan at Millwall and, having been a bit in and out for a while, he’s playing regularly for a side who are right in the mix for a play-off place but Leeds were willing to listen to offers for him in January. Middlesbrough had a look and Stoke made a very late enquiry on deadline day after selling Harry Souttar to Leicester. The interest from Stoke came to nothing but it is safe to assume there will be more approaches for Cresswell when the season ends. What Leeds have to ask themselves, on the back of what is developing into a good campaign at Millwall, is whether backing him and keeping him makes more sense than cashing in on him.
What happened behind the scenes before Marsch’s sacking? (Oisin H)
I’ve abbreviated this question slightly but Oisin wanted to know if there was more to the dismissal than a simple loss of faith, and how the players felt about it. It couldn’t be said that there was a massive mutiny or breakdown of relations with Marsch but results and poor performances were having an effect on confidence in the dressing room.
Various people close to the squad have said that belief was on the slide. Leeds persisted with Marsch despite the defeat to Villa that brought his position into sharper focus (and led to boardroom discussions about him). Even in the week leading up to his last game at Nottingham Forest, the club hoped Marsch would be able to bring results around. But a limp second half at Forest brought matters to a head. There’s no doubt either that dissatisfaction in the stands helped to push them in the direction of sacking him. The mood was toxic.
Adam Pope’s favourites are Dolly Mixtures. What’s yours? (Shay C)
These mailbags always seem to end with a food question. It was kebabs previously. You should have seen Popey ransacking the pick ‘n’ mix at Fulham on Tuesday. No shame. This isn’t very showbiz but I eat ludicrous amounts of Fruit Pastilles. It’s why I’ve got Bruce Lee’s physique.
(Top Photo: Daniel Chesterton/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)