March Madness odds, picks, predictions for Saturday’s Round 2 NCAA Tournament games
Did your bracket break after the first round of the 2023 NCAA tournament? Stupid question right? Good news, but even if you’ve already lost half your Sweet 16 and a few Final Four teams, you can still make some money by betting on individual games during March Madness. That starts with the second round matchups on Saturday.
It’s important to remember that no matter what a team looked like in the first round, it’s only one game. Houston struggled, Penn State dominated, Furman and Princeton surprised (and got a little lucky) — that’s all well and good, but none of that matters much as we head into the second round. Each game brings with it a new set of variables, matchups, and numbers to crack.
Below we sort through the stats to break down Saturday’s eight games and offer our tips for the money line, versus the spread and for the over/under.
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March Madness tips, predictions for Saturday’s second round matchups
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
No. 5 San Diego State (-6) vs. No. 13 Furman (South)
San Diego State is by far the better overall team, and it combines defense with a much faster and more effective offense than Virginia did against Furman in Round 1. Furman won’t let its glorious run roll through the Sweet 16 simply because it doesn’t stack well against SDSU’s main rotary pieces. The Cavaliers played into the hands of the Paladins on Thursday, but the Aztecs won’t be nearly as accommodating on Saturday night.
Forecast: State of San Diego 69, Furman 61. State of San Diego (-6) covers the spread on the fly UNDER the sum (138). — Sloan Piva
MORE ANALYSIS: SDSU-Furman full bet preview
No. 5 Duke (-3.5) vs. No. 4 Tennessee (East)
Duke is in a very different stratosphere offensively than Tennessee, and we’ve already seen the Blue Devils recently defeat a defensive powerhouse (Virginia) on the big stage (the ACC title game doesn’t measure up to March Madness, but it does is sure comes close). Given that Tennessee struggled to get past the Ragin’ Cajuns in the first round, we think Jon Scheyer’s squad will handle the Volunteers convincingly this weekend.
Forecast: Duke 69, Tennessee 63. Duke (-3.5) covers the spread on the fly ABOVE the sum (128). — Piva
MORE ANALYSIS: Duke-Tennessee full bet preview
#1 Kansas (-3.5) vs. #8 Arkansas (West)
Both offenses want to live in transition and set this game up for a potential high-possession clash. The Razorbacks pair well with the Jayhawks and are long enough to make Kansas uncomfortable, but ultimately Kansas’ consistency on offense is enough to take care of the tight-fisted Razorbacks. Arkansas keeps things competitive for the first 30 minutes, but Kansas pulls away en route to a Sweet 16 appearance at the track.
Forecast: Kansas 74, Arkansas 68. Kansas (-3.5) covers the spread on the fly UNDER the sum (144). — Nick Musical
MORE ANALYSIS: Kansas-Arkansas full bet preview
No. 7 Missouri (-6.5) vs. No. 15 Princeton (South)
Missouri’s ability to up the pace on offense and make room with his plethora of shooters should be enough to secure a multiple-possession win over Princeton. Princeton’s win over Arizona showed it can take out anyone in the country, but Missouri are a tough team to play for a quick turnaround and their ninth-rate offense is hitting enough shots to advance into weekend two.
Forecast: Missouri 78, Princeton 68. Missouri (-6.5) covers the spread on the fly UNDER the sum (150.5). — Musically
MORE ANALYSIS: Missouri-Princeton full bet preview
#1 Houston (-5.5) vs. #9 Auburn (Midwest)
Auburn has a very good opportunity to add to the second round surprise. The Tigers have a strong, athletic rotation and basically play in their backyard. Houston, who has only struggled with a 16 seed at times, could do without star Marcus Sasser and apparently Kelvin Sampson is “very worried” over Jamal Shead’s knees. We could do a two-way teaser with Auburn’s spread and the OVER, but we’ll most likely just bet on the Tigers’ spread and hope for more history.
Forecast: Maroon 72, Houston 69. Maroon (+5.5) wins directly and the ABOVE hits with ease (131.5). — Piva
MORE ANALYSIS: Houston-Auburn full bet preview
#2 Texas (-5.5) vs. #10 Penn State (Midwest)
The Nittany Lions had a nice win against Texas A&M to open the tournament, but the Longhorns are the better defensive team, which will help them carry the win. Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter will face off against Jalen Pickett and Seth Lundy. However, Dylan Disu will be the X factor in this game as Penn State doesn’t have a big one to match him offensively. The senior forward has averaged 14 points and eight rebounds per game in his last five games.
Forecast: Texas 75, Penn State 71. Penn State (+5.5) covers the spread while the game is in progress ABOVE the sum (140). — Jovan Alford
MORE ANALYSIS: Full Texas-Penn State betting preview
#2 UCLA (-7.5) vs. #7 Northwestern (West)
Both teams are great defensive players and have guards who can take over games. However, we want UCLA to walk away with the win and cover the span. The Wildcats lost the fight on the glass in their first-round win, but it will hurt them this time as the Bruins average 35.8 rebounds per game. UCLA is also shooting the three-pointer better (34.6 percent), giving them a distinct advantage over Northwestern.
Forecast: UCLA 68, Northwest 60. UCLA (-7.5) covers the spread while the game is in progress ABOVE the sum (127). — Alford
MORE ANALYSIS: Full UCLA-Northwestern betting preview
No. 1 Alabama (-8) vs. No. 8 Maryland (South)
You might want to buy a few points or throw Alabama’s spread in a teaser, but we’re confident with the tide to keep rolling. Oats lets his roster do almost everything well, and they managed to win in the first round by 21 points, even though Superstar rookie Brandon Miller missed one of his five field goal attempts. (Oats says Miller injured his groin in Alabama’s SEC championship win, but we don’t think he’d risk playing it in the opening round if he had a serious injury.) Don’t expect that Alabama pulls an Arizona and fizzles out late in the game. This squad has what it takes to smash through the clip on a collision course with history, and no Terrapin can slow that kind of momentum.
Forecast: Alabama 80, Maryland 68. Alabama (-8) covers the spread on the fly ABOVE the sum (144). — Piva
MORE ANALYSIS: Alabama-Maryland full bet preview