March Madness predictions 2023: Mike DeCourcy’s expert NCAA Tournament bracket picks
Here’s the thing about this year’s tournament.
I don’t feel like I can tell you who’s going to win at all.
Instead, I can tell you who won’t win it.
And there were times when I felt like I could say that about every team in the field.
Four days ago I had a pretty good feeling that Houston was the top contender to win the NCAA championship. Then All-American guard Marcus Sasser’s upper body zigzagged while his lower body jagged, and suddenly the Cougars looked pretty much like an ordinary team. A month ago nobody could handle 7-4 Purdue center Zach Edey (they still can’t) and that made it easier for the team’s young back to produce (now they aren’t). Alabama is dealing with the fallout from murder charges against a now-sacked player and the revelation that two players, including the team’s superstar, were present when the shooting took place.
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Championship contenders that were already overwhelming or flawed are now mostly overwhelming and flawed.
But if there’s a game, someone has to win it. So we’re going to have four teams in Houston in early April, and one of them is going to be holding up a championship trophy and joining UCLA 1972, North Carolina 1982, Duke 1992, Maryland 2002 and Kentucky 2012 – damn, those were some great champions. Perhaps the trick is to look forward to the year ending in “2”.
This one will end with Alabama victorious over a Final Four that includes Duke, Texas and Connecticut, and they could instantly become the least popular champion in the history of the sport.
The Crimson Tide can be a spectacular defensive team. They can be a spectacular attacking team. They rank in the top 20 in both categories on KenPom.com. They frontcourt with size, momentum, toughness, and shooting power. They have at least one obvious NBA prospect, future lottery winner Brandon Miller. In Miller they have a player who can break through defenses under pressure. Jahvon Quinerly is the kind of talented, experienced point guard who can win a title.
Quinerly may not be a first-round draft pick, but he fits in the mold of past champions like Dajuan Harris of Kansas and Joel Berry of North Carolina. Quinerly was injured in last year’s tournament and it has been a tough road for him to play at the level he has been at lately.
If Alabama wins everything, at least we can all feel good about him getting a ring.
MORE EXPERT CHOICES: Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)
March Madness Bracket Predictions 2023
Selection from the South region
FIRST ROUND
1 Alabama via 16 Texas A&M Corpus Christi
8 Maryland over 9 West Virginia
5 State of San Diego via 12 Charleston
4 Virginia over 13 Furman
6 Creighton over 11 NC State
3 Baylor over 14 UCSB
7 Missouri over 10 State of Utah
2 Arizona over 15 Princeton
SECOND ROUND
1 Alabama over 8 Maryland
5 State of San Diego via 4 Virginia
6 Creighton via 3 Baylor
2 Arizona over 7 Missouri
SWEET 16
1 Alabama over 5 State of San Diego
6 Creighton over 2 Arizona
ELITE EIGHT
1 Alabama via 6 Creighton
There are certain regions each year where it seems like the coach of the top seeds has the ability to choose the opponents he would prefer in his team’s region. This year, it’s as if that honor went to Alabama and head coach Nate Oats.
It’s just a mystery what he did to earn that honor.
Oh, I guess he fielded the team that became the No. 1 overall seed. I think that’s a good reason. But Bama gave the committee ample justification to consider going hard on the Crimson Tide and making it work to get to Houston.
Well, forget that. We saw what Arizona was made of in the Pac-12 championship game against UCLA. Oh, sure, they won, but they needed a terrible call that changed the dynamic of the game, two serious injuries to the Bruins, the only remaining UCLA bigs to be disqualified, and a late 3-pointer to clinch that trophy to get. After last year’s Arizona roster squandered the talents of Bennedict Mathurin, Dalen Terry and Christian Koloko with their departure from Sweet 16 (that could easily have been a first-weekend loss), this roster is hard to trust.
No. 3 Baylor may be happy never to see Iowa State again, but overall the Bears are struggling to find consistency on offense.
That’s why I finally picked Creighton – another team that rarely seems to capture the sum of their collective talent – to make the Elite Eight against Alabama. It’s mostly a belief that it should work more than any specific evidence it will. Think about it: Creighton has beaten one of its four NCAA tournament opponents since Feb. 1. And that’s the team I pick to go for a run?
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Selection from the East region
FIRST ROUND
1 Purdue over 16 Texas Southern
8 Memphis via 9 Florida Atlantic
5 Duke over 12 Oral Roberts
4 Tennessee over 13 Louisiana
6 Kentucky over 11 Providence
3 Kansas State over 14 Montana Statev 7 Michigan State over 10 USC
2 Marquette over 15 Vermont
SECOND ROUND
1 Purdue over 8 Memphis
5 Duke over 4 Tennessee
6 Kentucky over 3 states of Kansas
2 Marquette over 7 Michigan State
SWEET 16
5 Duke over 1 Purdue
2 Marquette over 6 Kentucky
ELITE EIGHT
5 Duke over 2 Marquette
Now that Duke is in perfect health, it’s hard not to be impressed by his collective talent and the determination the Blue Devils bring to every game. Kyle Filipowski is about as difficult to defend as any other player in college basketball due to his size, ability to score from deep and around goal, and his impressive ability to play on the move. Center Dereck Lively II is a ridiculous rim protector. They really do have a lot of the qualities you might look for in a national champion.
It just seems too unlikely that Duke will win a national title in his first season since Mike Krzyzewski retired.
Is that a good reason not to choose the Devils? Well, that wasn’t reason enough for me not to bring them up for promotion to the Final Four. Purdue opponents will worry about defending Sporting News Player of the Year Zach Edey, but his companions just don’t contribute regularly enough to defeat a team as gifted as Duke.
Marquette is a marvel, with perhaps America’s best pure point guard and some of the best passing of any team in Division I. But just good enough defense will eventually cost them, and I’m confident that point will come to the Elite Eight.
HISTORY OF ORIGINS THROUGH SEEDS:
15 against 2 | 14 against 3 | 13 against 4 | 12 against 5
Selection from the Midwest region
FIRST ROUND
1 Houston over 16 Northern Kentucky
9 Maroon over 8 Iowa
12 Drake over 5 Miami
4 Indiana over 13 Kent State
6 State of Iowa through 11 State of Mississippi
3 Xavier over 14 state of Kennesaw
7 Texas A&M over 10 Penn State
2 Texas over 15 Colgate
SECOND ROUND
1 Houston over 9 Auburn
4 Indiana over 12 Drake
3 Xavier over 6 State of Iowa
2 Texas over 7 Texas A&M
SWEET 16
1 Houston over 4 Indiana
2 Texas over 3 Xavier
ELITE EIGHT
2 Texas over 1 Houston
If I’m willing to believe the Cougars can reach the Elite Eight with an injury-ruined Marcus Sasser, why not just pick them to go all the way? OK, I’m getting into a really weird line of reasoning here: It just doesn’t seem like a season where we’re going to get two No. 1 seedlings in the Final Four.
There is almost always at least one top seed in the Final Four; The last time we had zero was in 2006 when the seeds were No. 2 UCLA, No. 3 Florida, No. 4 LSU and No. 11 George Mason.
I think Alabama gets the mandatory spot because of the inadequacy of their region. Houston has some teams that can challenge them, but there are even more concerns about Sasser’s ability to reach the exceptional level required to win the biggest tournament games.
I’m not entirely convinced Texas will survive their likely second-round game against one-time rivals Texas A&M, but if the Longhorns come through, they’ll be in for a good run. (If they make good endgame decisions with the ball, which is not a given).
And as much as local fans in the Midwest Texas area might not like, they might cheer even harder against a Houston team they believe had the opportunity to play in KC when the Jayhawks did right damn there with 17 Quad 1 wins and still behind the Cougars on the official NCAA seeding list.
TSN AWARDS: Edey Player of the Year | Terry Coach of the Year | All America Team
Selection from the West region
FIRST ROUND
1 Kansas over 16 Howard
8 Arkansas over 9 Illinois
5 Saint Mary’s over 12 VCU
4UConn over 13Iona
6 TCU over 11 states of Arizona
3 Gonzaga over 14 Grand Canyon
10 Boise State over 7 Northwest
2 UCLA over 15 UNC Asheville
SECOND ROUND
1 Kansas over 8 Arkansas
4 UConn over 5 Saint Mary’s
6 TCU over 3 Gonzaga
2 UCLA over 10 Boise State
SWEET 16
4 UConn over 1 Kansas
2 UCLA over 6 TCU
ELITE EIGHT
4 UConn over 2 UCLA
It’s not easy to decide against UCLA when they make it this deep into the tournament. This team has a will to win that is unmatched among the other 67 teams in the field. However, the vast majority of the other 67 teams aren’t potentially without 40 percent of their starting lineup just when the games matter most.
We know pretty well that Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year winger Jalen Clark will not be available for March Madness. The status of gifted newcomer center Adem Bona is unclear but he is unlikely to offer his usual physical presence, if at all marred by his shoulder injury.
It always seemed like analysts pushing the Bruins as likely national champions were asking a lot from a team that frequently struggles to score. But they had what it takes for a Final Four. Maybe they still do, but it’s going to be so much harder.
Kansas, seeded No. 1, does as well, but that 361st place in bench minutes is no coincidence. It’s a team that relies so much, almost too much, on their starters. Those who advocated Kansas as a possible/probable national champion overlooked that center KJ Adams is 6-7. He’s an excellent 6-7 player, but there hasn’t been a champion with a center this size since 1979. And the Michigan State team had a guy named Magic on their side.
UConn really does have what it takes to make it to Houston.
The Huskies just need to stay focused, stick together, and point in the right direction for four games. They did that at the beginning of the season. You might end up doing it.