Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft features a surprising top-five trade
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. revealed Tuesday his third NFL mock draft, his first after the NFL Scouting Combine and the start of free agency. Four quarterbacks finished in the top five, with an AFC team making a surprise trade to secure one.
The draft pundit predicted that the Indianapolis Colts would trade with the Arizona Cardinals, moving up from 4th overall to 3rd for pick Will Levis of Kentucky. In his latest prospect rankings, Kiper ranks Levis as the second-best QB of the draft and fourth-best overall.
With the fourth pick, Kiper predicts Arizona to pick Alabama OLB Will Anderson Jr., which is a steal if such a deal goes through.
“Levis, a 6-foot-4 QB with a huge arm who played on pro offense in Kentucky, had a volatile 2022 season. However, he didn’t play with elite talent and at times forced too many throws. Indianapolis has the playmakers who can help him as a rookie,” Kiper wrote.
Levis, a Penn State transfer, broke out in 2021 when he led Kentucky to a 10-3 record, throwing for 2,826 yards, 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
As noted by Kiper, Levis’ performance declined last season, recording 2,406 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. However, the drop was partly due to the departure of the Wildcats’ top two receivers from 2021.
Unless the Colts trade for Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, the team will draft a QB in April. New HC Shane Steichen’s experience coaching gifted young passers makes him an ideal mentor for the raw, strong-armed Levis. As manager of Chargers QB Justin Herbert and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, Steichen is familiar with different styles of play.
The Eagles didn’t pass much last season because they consistently blew teams away, and Hurts capitalized on his rushing ability, something Levis don’t offer. Ideally Levis should be used similarly to Herbert so he can present his arm. In 2020, Los Angeles, Herbert’s Rookie of the Year-winning season, had the fifth most passes attempted per game (39.2).
Reading Kiper’s proposed trade, the comparison to Chicago, which traded for Mitchell Trubisky in 2017, is hard to avoid.
The Bears unnecessarily traded picks #3, 67, and 111 in this year’s draft, along with a 2018 third-round pick to select Trubisky as the second overall pick. The move seemed questionable at the time, but with hindsight it looks even worse given the signal callers (Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson) who drafted in after him.
There doesn’t appear to be any Mahomes or Watson in the 2023 class, so the Colts probably wouldn’t prefer Levis to a cross-generational QB prospect.
Even so, jumping a spot for the Kentucky product could be a mistake for Colts GM Chris Ballard. Instead, Ballard should consider moving up to No. 2, where he could potentially pick Bryce Young of Alabama, the owner Jim Irsay endorsed.