Michael Carter or Rashaad Penny: Who’s the better fantasy draft pick in 2022?

Abraham Smith

In fantasy football we always have to determine the value, the advantage and the opportunity. In the case of RB committees and battles for position between veterans and rookies, assessing the full scope of unique situations can be critical to your long-term success. Two such fights — Rashaad Penny vs. Kenneth Walker III of the Seahawks and Michael Carter vs. Breece Hall of the Jets — are currently influencing the 2022 Fantasy Rankings. While the rookies are always more “exciting,” the veterans could be bigger sleeper stats in your draft.

Before you can decide whether you’d rather have Penny or Carter, you must answer whether Carter can stop Hall and whether Penny can keep RB1 obligations to Walker. let’s discuss

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2022 Fantasy Cheat Sheet

Michael Carter fantasy outlook, projection 2022

Carter put together a solid rookie campaign last season, notching four TDs and trailing 46 yards behind 1,000 yards of scrimmage on an otherwise abysmal offense. That’s not bad for a defender who has played 14 games and started just 11 (he missed three games with a high right ankle sprain). Still, the Jets drafted stud Iowa State back Breece Hall early in the second round. Bad news for Carter, isn’t it?

Maybe not. After many years Jets beat writer Michael Cimini, Carter has had a strong training camp and is likely to remain New York’s RB1. That aligns with the narrative of Gang Green’s preseason — Carter and Hall shared replays in the opener against the Eagles on Aug. 12, and then Carter sat out with the rest of the starters 10 days later while Hall took minimal snaps with the second Unit led by QB2 Mike White.

STANDARD RANKINGS 2022:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | foosball | Top 200 | Superflex

So the good news is that Carter appears to be the favorite to start the 2022 season on the Jets’ RB depth chart. The bad news: he could still end up outside of RB30’s territory. New York’s offensive line still draws many question marks, as does the health of QB starter Zach Wilson. If Hall becomes an NFL star, Carter won’t be the RB1 for much longer.

Where Carter’s role should be certain, at least early in the season, is in the passing game. In his rookie campaign, he had 36 catches for 325 yards, good for a solid 9.0 yards per catch. It also bolstered his efficiency stats — he averaged 4.3 yards per carry but 5.3 per touch. Still, Carter caught just 65.45 percent of his 55 goals, which failed to crack the top 100 NFL players with at least 30 receptions.

PPR RANKINGS 2022:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | foosball | Top 200 | Superflex

Carter has plenty of doubters – his ADP currently stands at 106 overall, although that should shift significantly after Cimini’s tweet. Rookie Hall, meanwhile, was drafted in the third or fourth round of most drafts with an ADP of 38. Hall obviously offers more advantages — he’s posted at least one TD in his last 24 NCAA games and earned multiple Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year honors — but it’s hard to trust either of them in that offense.

If you choose Hall in the fourth round, you should also add Carter to complete the insurance policy. Drawing Carter alone seems like a low-floor, low-ceiling move. If he stays in the 100’s, give it a try, but consider finding better value before 100. Rhamondre Stevenson, Melvin Gordon III, Brian Robinson Jr. and James Cook all seem like higher quality picks in Carter’s ADP range.

2022 FANTASY THRESHOLDS:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | One from each team

Rashaad Penny Fantasy Outlook, Projection 2022

Here’s a situation where the veteran will start – and probably should finish – the season as his team’s RB1 barring an injury. Penny was one of the most effective defensemen in the NFL while playing for Seattle in 2021, averaging an NFL-best 6.3 yards per carry. In the last six games of the season, Penny was the highest-scoring RB, averaging 19.5 fantasy points per game.

We just can’t ignore that level of production, nor do we think the rookie walker will threaten Penny’s role on offense any time soon. Kung Fu Kenny—as I’ll call him—has many enticing game records from his two years at Michigan State (after transferring from Wake Forest). He had 32 TDs and rushed for 1,636 yards over those two seasons. However, he is actively recovering from his August 16 hernia surgery.

RANKING 2022 & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs

record screeching. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Aug. 21 that Walker was “still pretty tender. He needs to heal some things, go in and do what they did. So it’s only a matter of time, but we don’t have a set order yet. We’ll have to see how he reacts.”

To be honest, that’s a worrying attitude. Hernias are known to take time to recover, although they are less severe than the dreaded “sports hernia”. Some health and medical experts have suggested that the timeframe for Walker’s recovery may not even be known, given that surgeons generally recommend that hernia surgery patients not lift more than 15 pounds for several weeks after the procedure. In this case, “no set sequence” is a fluffy way of saying “off indefinitely” or “no schedule.”

AUCTION VALUES 2022 (Standard & PPR):
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | foosball | In total

Despite Carroll’s back-and-forth optimism about the prospects of KWIII returning to the field by Week 1 when Seattle welcomes Russell Wilson and his new Broncos brothers, we think it would be best to hit the brakes. Carroll has never been known for accurately conveying injury scenarios and we know the man has a passion for young stud backs. Heck, he even hinted that Walker has a future as a three-down back.

But why would Carroll rush the return of such a special running back to (to put it nicely) a rather unspectacular offensive line?

We know this: Whether Drew Lock or Geno Smith is leading this offense, there will be problems. The running game is used early and sufficiently. The Seahawks placed in the top 5 total rushing attempts in five of the past nine seasons. Penny has the experience and he proved late last season that he can still dominate multiple NFL defenses.

No one with at least 75 carries averaged more yards from contact than Penny’s 3.1 last season, and among NFL backs with at least 100 tries, he led all NFL backs with an elusive 110.5 rating. He had four games with 135+ rushing yards and three games with multiple TDs in the second half of the season. You can sleep on Penny like the other fantasy artists who let him slip into the eighth and ninth rounds, but our eyes are wide open.

Walker is 88th overall, six spots behind Penny’s ADP. With the rookie’s hernia injury, the air of uncertainty surrounding the Seahawks’ offense, and Penny’s established dominance last season despite a mediocre offensive line, it’s hard to see Walker being placed right behind Penny. Is it because the veteran was dealing with a groin problem earlier this month and hasn’t worked out for about a week? Is it because he’s been plagued by injuries his entire career?

In all honesty, the close rankings are probably partly due to those two factors, but more likely to everyone’s fascination with rookie skill position players. Fantasy owners always seem intrigued by the upside of new players, sometimes even oblivious to the fact that there’s a better immediate option in the same depth chart. Penny is the better option, and we’d be fine with landing him in the late sixth round to early eighth round area. Right now Walker is more like a 10th round back in redrafts.

The Verdict: Fade Carter unless handcuffed, and drafted Penny anyway.

To see how RotoBaller portrays Carter vs. Penny – or any other four players you’re considering for your draft – watch the exclusive Who to Draft? tool below:

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