MLB Divisional Odds 2023: Cardinals reclaim NL Central, Blue Jays take AL East, more
With Opening Day on the horizon and spring training games starting this week, it’s worth seeing how the betting market is forecasting the trajectory of MLB divisional racing in 2023. Will we see new division winners this season, or have the odds makers correctly identified the teams to beat in each division?
We will analyze the division races throughout the season and break down the contenders and contenders based on BetMGM’s updated division odds. To kick things off, we’re highlighting the best bets for each of the six divisions ahead of the regular season.
2023 National League Central Divisional Odds
All odds courtesy of BetMGM
| team | opportunities |
| St. Louis Cardinals | -115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +145 |
| Chicago Cubs | +600 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +6000 |
| Cincinnati Red | +6600 |
Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals -115
After winning the 2022 seven-game NL Central against the Brewers with a 93-69 record, the Redbirds are entering 2023 as clear favorites. Though Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA rating predicts the Brewers will take the NL Central crown, we support St. Louis to retake the division at -115.
St. Louis is the most balanced team in the division, built to be relatively consistent across the 162-game roster. The Redbirds’ offense is the strongest, bringing back much of the same core that finished the regular season in fifth place in wRC+ (114) and wOBA (.326). The addition of Willson Contreas (3.9 WAR, 128 OPS+ in ’22) adds even more pop and protection to this lineup for Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Sure, there’s some uncertainty as to who will start where on Opening Day, but President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak has assembled a nice mix of young and veteran talent that should build on last season’s 90-plus win campaign.
Will we see Jordan Walker roam the outfield at Busch Stadium on opening day, or will Lars Nootbaar solidify as the team’s right fielder? Will Brendan Donovan or Nolan Gorman Win Second Base Job? Regardless of what turns out, these are good “problems” to have.
The biggest question mark surrounding the Cardinals, however, is the effectiveness of their pitching rotation. Adam Wainwright (103 ERA+ in ’22), Miles Mikolas (116 ERA+) and Jordan Montgomery (123 ERA+) have a good chance of ending the season above the league average in ERA+, but what about Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz? If either one stays healthy and solidifies the backbone of the rotation, St. Louis will not only win the NL Central, they’ll do some damage in October. While the Brewers and Cubs remain competitive throughout, put the chalk and bet on the Redbirds to win the NL Central.
2023 National League East division odds
| team | opportunities |
| Atlanta Braves | +135 |
| New York Mets | +140 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +300 |
| Miami Marlin | +4000 |
| Washington Nationals | +25000 |
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves +135
Compared to BetMGM’s pre-season odds, the NL East is expected to be a close race, just like last season. Despite a 3-1 loss to the Phillies in the NLDS after a 101-win regular season, we expect the Braves to pull off another dominant regular season that will yield their sixth straight NL East title .
Atlanta’s lineup is among the most complete in baseball, even after losing stalwart shortstop Dansby Swanson (5.7 WAR, 115 OPS+ in ’22). Vaughn Grissom has worked with Ron Washington this offseason and should be an impressive enough backup at shortstop to overcome Swanson’s departure. Elsewhere, the Braves got even stronger behind the plate, bringing in catcher Sean Murphy (3.5 WAR, 120 OPS+ in ’22) to give them another reliable mid-order racquet.
Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr.’s approach to a full season is another added boost, while Austin Riley and NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris Jr. are both contenders for possible MVP honors. Their pitching baton is as deep as it gets, and a baton that finished last season and kept opponents at the third-lowest xSLG (.356) could only get better. You’ll also benefit from the fact that 2019 Rookie of the Year Mike Soroka is runner-up, vying with Ian Anderson for fifth place in the rotation.
It’s tough gaining ground in the Mets and Phillies against two World Series-caliber teams, but the Braves still have the best roster on paper. By the end of their half decade, we’re still rolling with the Bravos to be the kings of NL East.
2023 National League West Division Odds
| team | opportunities |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -140 |
| San Diego Padres | +140 |
| San Francisco Giants | +1200 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | +4000 |
| Colorado Rockies | +15000 |
Best Bet: San Diego Padres +140
It looks like the Padres have closed the gap on the Dodgers and have as good a chance as ever of winning their first NL West title since 2006. While betting against the Dodgers is never easy, we endure our fears and bet the Padres put together a dominant 23-season regular.
Following the close-of-trade acquisition of Juan Soto and Josh Hader, Baseball Operations President AJ Preller went on with business and signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year contract while also bringing veterans Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter to the clubhouse this offseason brought in. It could very well be Manny Machado’s last season at Slam Diego, but as long as his contract talks don’t distract, he’ll likely repeat an elite 22 season in which the third baseman hit 32 home runs with 102 RBIs while he was ranked 95 5th percentile on outs above average.
A pitching rotation that ended regular-season 22-place finishes in the top 10 in WHIP, opponent average and strikeouts only got better when Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo joined the team and Joe Musgrove signed a five-year extension in August. Reliable high-leverage helpers in Luis Garcia, Robert Suarez and Hader should have WHIPs under 1.30 from the bullpen, giving the pads a real shot at conquering the NL West in 2023.
2023 American League Central Divisional Odds
| team | opportunities |
| Cleveland Guardian | +160 |
| Chicago White Sox | +160 |
| Minnesota twins | +250 |
| Detroit Tigers | +2000 |
| Kansas City Royals | +4000 |
Best bet: Minnesota Twins +250
The AL Central’s is set to be the tightest division race this season, with no team better than +160 odds to win the division. Though the Guardians are returning much of the same roster that helped them win the AL Central in 2022, we can’t go without getting a team we think is just as complete at +250.
The twins made several notable moves this offseason, winning the Carlos Correa sweepstakes while trading with Pablo Lopez for a top-of-the-rotation starter. They also added Christian Vazquez behind the plate, buying low in a bounce back season from Joey Gallo. Jose Miranda is looking to take another step in his second season, filling in for Luis Arraez at first base while Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler are the mainstays of the lineup.
Minnesota’s starting rotation can go toe-to-toe with both the Guardians and the White Sox, and with several big boppers at the top of the lineup, it’s arguable that the Twins should be favorites. The White Sox are set to disappoint again while the Guardians line-up still lacks power despite the addition of Josh Bell and Mike Zunino. For now, let’s keep things calm and take advantage of a 2.5-1 payday on the Twinkies to win the AL Central.
2023 American League East division odds
| team | opportunities |
| New York Yankees | +100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +220 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +350 |
| Boston Red Sox | +2000 |
| Baltimore Orioles | +2000 |
Best bet: Toronto Blue Jays +220
While the Yankees’ starting rotation may very well be the best in baseball, we’re sticking with the undervalued Blue Jays at +220.
We’ve highlighted the Jays as our favorite bet for the future of the World Series in our World Series odds chart, so we clearly expect a big season from a team that disappointed in 2022 holes by adding left-handed bats in Daulton Varsho, Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier along with one of the biggest free agent starters in Chris Bassitt.
You know you’ll be fighting for the divisional crown when Whit Merrifield is your projected No. 8. Featuring the Top 4’s of George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk, fans will be hearing the Rogers Center home run horn quite a bit.
What makes the Blue Jays at +220 even more enticing to win the AL East is their deep and revised bullpen, led by Jordan Romano and newly acquired setup man Erik Swanson. Toronto has a variety of high-leverage weapons that will help hold the late-inning leads in what will hopefully result in its first AL East title since 2015.
2023 American League West division odds
| team | opportunities |
| Houston Astros | -200 |
| Seafarers from Seattle | +300 |
| Texas Rangers | +1000 |
| Angels from Los Angeles | +1000 |
| Oakland Athletics | +25000 |
Best Bet: Houston Astros -200
We understand you don’t want to have your money tied up for months on a future that pays 1-2, and while the Mariners (+300) believe they’re the only team to claim Houston’s third straight AL West crown in the way, we decline this bet against the reigning World Series champion. The Astros are guaranteed a two-dollar divisional favorite as they are also favorites to win the World Series at +650.
Houston is still struggling for the league’s best starting rotation despite running Justin Verlander. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are poised to take on an even bigger role, and Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Hunter Brown will stabilize the backend.
It’s hard to think of an offense better than the 2022 iteration, which finished second in the AL in isolated performance (.176 ISO), but with Jose Abreu and World Series MVP Jeremy Pena forecasting, more than Hitting 20 homers out of the running seven holes, Houston’s performance numbers are likely to improve across the board. It’s by no means a flashy pick, but the Astros know how to win.
There’s a chance the Astros’ odds will climb closer to -175 if they aren’t red hot right out of the gates. It might be wise to wait until the season to take action to win the AL West, but as they open the season against teams they’ve done well against in the White Sox and Tigers, it could easily be the best time to bet them.