National ahead of Labour in latest poll, but Labour could form government

Labor trails National in the latest business poll by Talbot Mills, which also leads Labor’s private policy poll.

However, Labor would have the numbers to form a government with Te Pāti Māori support.

The poll found Labor at 33 per cent behind National at 36 per cent.

The Greens came in at 11 percent, just ahead of Act, who polled 10 percent.

NZ First was still below the 5 percent threshold at 3.4 percent, Te Pāti Māori at 3 percent and TOP at 2.3 percent.

The December poll had Labor at 32 percent, National at 35 percent. Act surveyed 11 percent and the Greens 9 percent.

Te Pāti Māori got 3.5 percent, NZ First 4.3 percent and TOP 2.4 percent.

According to the latest figures, National would have 46 seats and Act 13 to 59 in total and not enough to form a government.

Labor would have 43 seats and the Greens 14.

Te Pāti Māori would hold the balance of power with four seats.

49 percent of people believed the country was on the wrong track, compared to 42 percent who believed it was on the right track.

Seventy-seven percent of people felt bad or not-so-good about the economy, while 22 percent felt good or excellent. This is one of the biggest gaps since the pandemic.

The news wasn’t just bad for Labour.

New leader Chris Hipkins was chosen as the preferred prime minister with 35 percent, well ahead of rival Christopher Luxon, who voted 27 percent.

Act’s David Seymour surveyed 9 percent.

The survey was conducted between January 26th and January 31st.

The poll differs slightly from two public polls released last week, the 1 News Kantar Public poll and the Newshub Reid Research poll

1 News Kantar had Labor at 38, National at 37 and the Greens and Act at 7 and 10 respectively.

Newshub Reid Research had Labor on 38/6, National on 36/6, with the Greens and Act on 8/1 and 10/7 respectively.

Te Pāti Māori scored 1.4 percent in the 1 News Kantar poll and 1.8 percent in the Newshub Reid Research poll.

Speaking to 1 News about his poll, Hipkins said he was heartened by the strong support but had “a lot of work to do.

“New Zealanders, I think, know what to expect from me. They expect someone who’s pretty straight forward and pretty honest,” he said.

He said the public’s response to him face-to-face has been “positive so far.”

The poll also looked at support for Three Waters. Only 17 percent supported the reforms, while 42 percent opposed them.

Contrary to the other polls, which seem to show a significant recovery in support for Labor from the polls conducted at the end of 2022, the Talbot Mills poll shows that Labor support is fairly unchanged from last year.

A poll from October to November gave Labor 34, National 35, Green 9, Act 10 and Te Pāti Māori 3.2 percent.