NBA Odds, Expert Picks: Best Bets For Rockets-Thunder

Wednesday marks the last full NBA slate before the All-Star break and it’s shaping up to be a good one. There are 11 games scheduled tonight, including two national TV encounters on the ESPN doubleheader: Cavaliers vs. 76ers (7:30pm ET) and Pelicans vs. Lakers (10:00pm ET).

Our analysts have the top four bets for four other matches on Wednesday’s list, including money line plays, totals and player props. Read on for her expert tips and predictions for Wednesday.

NBA Odds & Tips

Chicago Bulls versus Indiana Pacers

Jim Turvey: There are teams that start games well and teams that don’t. And on Wednesday we have a perfect meeting of two teams on opposite sides of that spectrum.

The Bulls, for all their struggles this season, have actually gotten off to a good start as their 34-21-2 record versus spread in the first quarter is the best in the Association this season with a return on investment (+17.0%) ) almost twice as high as the second-best team (Minnesota at +9.9%).

The Pacers, on the other hand, were miserable in the first quarter. They are 18-40-1 against the spread for the first 12 minutes, which translates to a -40.3 percent ROI. That’s practically the worst in the league and almost double the second worst team (Detroit at -24.7%).

The Bulls took a bit of money overall for the game, and they were best in the final first quarter, going 7-2-1 in the last ten.

I’ve chosen the money line here, but you can also choose spread or alt line. I would play this to Bulls -120 on the moneyline, but you don’t have to go that far. This game should be safe no matter when you find it during the day.

Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets

Chris Baker: This is a good spot for the redesigned webs to finally get into the win column. The Heat have been solid defenses all year, finishing fourth in the adjusted defense rating, but their success rests on their ability to take away the paint/border. Miami ranks third in adversary’s allowable rim rate for the year.

They’re not particularly concerned with taking down opposing 3-pointers, as they rank 29th in the opponent’s 3-point attempt rate. This is a big problem when faced with this offense from the Brooklyn Nets, as they are sixth in 3-point attempt rating since they traded Kyrie Irving to the Mavericks. They placed 11th in the 3-point attempt rate for the season, and that Irving trade only exacerbated their love of 3-points.

The Nets have lost their recent games by undershooting from the field, but I want them to rebound positively when they’re up against a heat defense that ranks 24th in effective field goal allowable -percentage and ranks 19th in terms of allowable three-point percentage.

On the other side of the ball, I love the way this Nets defense pairs with the Heat as they have multiple defenders who can defend Jimmy Butler. The Nets now start with three capable fullbacks in Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith, while also playing off the bench against the likes of Royce O’Neale and Ben Simmons. This team now has an abundance of powerful wing defenders and that’s a huge advantage for a defense when it comes to a player of Jimmy Butler’s caliber.

The Nets also have Nic Claxton in the center to anchor their defense and protect the perimeter against Bam Adebayo. Claxton ranks seventh overall in defensive EPM across the NBA and opponents shoot to the rim (91st percentile) at just 61.8% with Claxton on the ground. Claxton is a legitimate stallion defensively and I expect Bam Adebayo to struggle with Claxton’s length and athleticism.

Finally, this Nets defense also defends the three balls well since they traded away Kyrie and Kevin Durant. In the last four games, they finished third in the opponent’s allowable 3-point try rate. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, as any team with that many switchable, lean, and athletic defenders will do a good job of pushing their opponents off the three-point line. This is key when dealing with a Heat team ranked ninth in offensive three-point attempt rate.

The Nets have dealt with three top 10 net rating teams and one Bulls team ranked 16th in the adjusted net rating since their blockbuster trades. This team is still trying to build chemistry between them, but I like that because of the matchup and the fact that this is the weakest team (18th in the adjusted net rating) they’ve played since the Kyrie swap , arrive right here.

I took the nets on the money line and played this down to -2 on the spread.

Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Joe Dellera: Desmond Bane has continued to excel from beyond the arc this season, shooting 43.7% from 3 and evading 3.1 on 7.1 attempts per game. Tonight, the Grizzlies host the pre-All-Star break jazz at a great venue.

In five games against the Jazz over the past two seasons, Bane has averaged 3.2 3s on 7.4 attempts and exceeded that line in four of the five games.

Additionally, Memphis is favored by 8.5 points tonight against a Jazz team that traded some of their key rotation players before the deadline. In the 21 Memphis wins that Bane has played against him, he’s lost three or more 3s in 16 of them (76%).

I like to see Bane continue his sharp shooting against the Jazz tonight.

Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Matt Moore: Trends: The over in Thunder home games this season is 17-10-1 (63%). The over in Thunder home games, where they are preferred, is 8-4-1 (67%).

The Matchup: OKC has the second-fastest offensive possession length in the league, according to Dunks And Threes. The Rockets allow second fastest. You can get your seats early. OKC is 10th on transition offense per possession while the Rockets are last dead. OKC will run and run.

The number: I’m predicting this at 242. The market disagrees; This moved down a notch from open overnight. Houston may not be able to perform enough here, but I want to leave room for Houston’s offense to have a random night where their inefficient shooters score when OKC’s advantages aren’t kicking in.

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