NFL odds Week 3: How to bet Bills-Dolphins

That buffalo bills Set out to take on that Miami Dolphins in week 3 of NFL Season.

Buffalo and Miami come in the exact opposite of week two’s wins. The Bills defeated the Tennessee Titans 41-7 while the Dolphins overcame a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter to defeat the Baltimore Ravens 42-38.

Which 2-0 team will remain unbeaten after AFC East rivalry match?

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Bills Dolphins game, from point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

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bills @ dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point distribution: Bills -5.5 (Bills prefer to win with more than 5.5 points, else Dolphins cover)
money line: Bills -227 to win favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14.41 total); Dolphins +175 Win underdogs (bet $10 to win $27.50 total)
Total score over/under: Both teams scored 53.5 points together

Buffalo and Miami are each 2-0 against the spread (ATS) and 2-0 straight (SU) this season. The Bills beat the Titans last week and marked as favorites, while the Dolphins beat the Ravens last week as underdogs. Both teams have shared the O/U this season (1-1).

The Bills are 6-3-1 ATS and 9-1 SU against the Dolphins under head coach Sean McDermott (since 2017), with five of those games overturned (one push). Meanwhile, the Dolphins have been 16-8-1 ATS and 14-11 SU vs. AFC East opponents since 2018, with the under-hit in 15 of those games.

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FOX Sports Betting Analyst’s Picks Warren Sharp:

The Bills defense is No. 1 in the NFL, but look at who they faced. Two teams with underperforming offenses (No. 20 Rams, No. 29 Titans).

And more importantly, none of these crimes face multiple threats like the dolphins now have.

The Rams have Cooper Kupp, and that’s about it, at least until they find a way to get Allen Robinson more involved.

Kupp caught 13 of 15 targets for 128 yards and 1 TD, and singed the secondary bills. But the Rams have no one else that comes close to him.

Her #2 target was a tight end (Higbee) who only caught 5 of 11 targets. Her #3 goal was a running back.

And their quarterback suffered a throwing elbow injury this offseason, and his head coach decided to end an obscenely run-heavy game with the first down. The runs did absolutely nothing but set the Rams up for second and third and long situations.

Last week, the Bills knocked out the Titans, who have an even worse receiver situation than the Rams.

Their #1 target in the game was a rookie playing his second NFL game (Treylon Burks). The Titans lost all of their receiver juice when they dropped AJ Brown and Julio Jones. And if this team falls behind and Derrick Henry can’t walk, they’re doomed.

And now the Bills are even more battered in secondary school.

Buffalo has been without CB1 Tre’Davious White for at least the first four weeks of the season.

Starting corner Dane Jackson was strapped to a board, carted away and taken to hospital Monday night after lying motionless on the field with a frightening injury. He was discharged from the hospital but suffered a brutal head/neck injury.

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Starting safety Micah Hyde suffered a neck injury, was downed, was taken to the blue medical tent and then carted into the locker room. It was later revealed that Hyde was also taken to the hospital to have his neck injury checked and was later released.

To combat this Dolphins offense, the Bills may need to outdo them.

Luckily they did well against the dolphins.

In their last seven games against the Dolphins, the Bills have scored no fewer than 26 points and averaged an insane 37 ppg.

Five of those seven games are over, including five of six when Tua was uninjured.

Miami is 0-7 in these games and only 2-5 ATS.

Buffalo shot and shot at will.

And part of that is just the defense that the dolphins play.

Miami is easily the No. 1 most man-heavy team in the NFL. Plain and simple, the Finns love to play man.

Last year, they were the only team to play over 40% of snaps against men, at a 46% clip.

They are No. 3 in the NFL so far this year.

But even worse for them is how much they love flashing.

In early losses in the first three quarters, Miami blitzes with the second-highest rate of any defense.

But they get pressured at the second-lowest rate of any defense.

It’s a dangerous combination and a big reason this defense is the second-worst defense against passing this year, and that includes a game against Mac Jones.

Miami has allowed a league-high 12.2 yards per completion so far this year. It was a miserable pass defense. And one unfit to face Josh Allen.

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Against the Blitz this year, Josh Allen ranks:

#1 in the Sack/INT rate

#2 in first down rate

#3 thrown in TDs

No. 4 in success rate

#5 in YPA

No. 6 in EPA/att

Josh Allen also ranks in the top 10 for anti-male coverage.

Bottom line, what Miami wants to do defensively just doesn’t work against Josh Allen.

SELECT: Over 52.5 total points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Are you ready for the NFL season? If so, go to FOX Bet for all your bets.

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