NFL odds Week 3: How to bet Saints-Panthers

An NFC South Showdown in Week 3 of 2022 NFL Season.

The New Orleans Saints travel to North Carolina to fight the Carolina Panthers Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium

The Panthers go into this game without a win after another painful loss, this time to the New York Giants. While the defense held Saquon Barkely at 72 yards and fired Daniel Jones three times, the offense was stale. Baker Mayfield completed 14 of his 29 throws for 145 yards and a touchdown, and the Panthers’ offense converted just two of 12 third downs. For this team to get anywhere, Mayfield has to produce.

The New Orleans Saints are tied 1-1 in Week 2 after a 10-20 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jameis Winston threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter and that was all she wrote. Winston continues to bet on the big game rather than short, easy routes, and so are the Saints. Hopefully one of those quarterbacks can produce a full four quarterbacks this weekend.

Here’s everything you need from a Saints Panthers game betting perspective, from point distribution, moneyline, total over/under and expert insight (odds via FOX Bet):

TIED TOGETHER: Week 3 rows, odds

saints @ Panthers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point distribution: New Orleans -3 (Saints favor win by more than 3 points, Panthers cover otherwise)
money line: New Orleans -162 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.17 total); Panthers +125 Win underdogs (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Total score over/under: Both teams scored 40.5 points together

FOX sports betting analyst Warren Sharp:

Baker Mayfield was blitzed on 33% of his early downs in the first three quarters, the fourth-highest blitz rate in the NFL this year.

And he’s being pressured at the 10th highest rate (36%).

On early downs when Mayfield is blitzed, he ranks 20th in EPA/att (-0.09).

But when not flashed, he ranks 11th in EPA/att (+0.11).

And Baker has had massive splits against pressure and off pressure for a long time. Since 2020:

Vs pressure: -0.62 EPA/att, 25% success, 5.8 YPA

No pressure: +0.27 EPA/att, 51% success, 7.6 YPA

Unlike years past, this Saints defense just doesn’t come under pressure. They don’t flash either.

New Orleans blitzes with just 8% of QB drops, which ranks 30th.

And they’re under pressure at a rate of 9.9%, which ranks last in the NFL (average = 30%).

Last week, the Bucs played without multiple offensive line starters and multiple starting receivers. And the Saints, playing at home, still got the lowest pressure in the NFL.

If this continues and the Saints struggle to pressure Mayfield and blitz as infrequently as they have up to now, it will be a big change for Mayfield.

In Week 1, Mayfield played his old team, the Browns.

They rank #6 in pressure rate this season, record pressure on 36% of opposing dropbacks and have a league-average blitz rate.

In Week 2, Mayfield played the Giants.

They are #5 this season in blitz rate (37%) and record pressure at a rate of 27%.

Mayfield was blitzed and pressured in his first two games with the Panthers.

Now he’s playing at home against a team with the No. 32 pressure rate and No. 30 blitz rate?

This certainly isn’t an easy defense, but there’s a way to envision Mayfield doing a little better without the pressure. And if he doesn’t and fights again, the Panthers will host the No. 31 Cardinals defense next week, which should be his last chance to either deliver for the Panthers or likely cost Matt Rhule his job as the next three Games to be included will be the Bucs, Rams and 49ers.

Are you ready for the NFL season? If so, go to FOX Bet for all your bets.

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