NFL odds Week 4: How to bet Chiefs-Buccaneers

The Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks take center stage as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs take on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Sunday Night Football.

Brady won the Super Bowl NFL-Record seven times and Mahomes won Super Bowl LIV after the 2019 season.

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Chiefs-Buccaneers game, from point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

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Chiefs @ Buccaneers (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Point distribution: Chiefs -1.5 (Chiefs prefer a win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise Buccaneers cover)
money line: Chiefs -120 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.33 total); Buccaneers – Win 105 underdogs (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Total score over/under: No line available

Kansas City bosses


Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Mahomes is 15-13 against the spread (ATS) and 22-6 straight up (SU) as a starter when he’s a street favorite.

The Chiefs have 5-8 ATS and 6-7 SU against the all-time Buccaneers and 1-4 ATS and 1-4 SU since 2000, with the over having scored in the over/under (O/U) in three of those games.

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The Chiefs have been under Andy Reid since 2013 with 0:2 ATS and 1:1 SU against the Buccaneers, with underhitting in both games.

Brady is 11-1 ATS and 9-3 straight up SU as a starter when he’s a home underdog.

The Buccaneers have been home underdogs since 2018 at 5-3-1 ATS and 3-6 SU, with the underdog scoring five times in nine games in O/U.

The Buccaneers have been at 5:3 ATS and 5:3 SU against AFC West opponents since 2013, with the Underman scoring four times with a push in the O/U.

Choose over the FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

Who knew a matchup between the all-time best quarterback and the league’s best current quarterback would be about defense? But that’s exactly what we’ll see on Sunday – a defensive duel with few points.

For the Chiefs, we see the implications of not having Tyreek Hill on the list. It’s not that the Chiefs can’t create explosive passing plays. It’s just that Mahomes has no recipient to trust when breaking open the bag. In third place, he still has no weapon. The Chiefs’ offense has 20 points against both the Chargers and Colts over the past two weeks while looking sluggish at times.

The Bucs’ defense ranks first in defensive DVOA after three weeks, and I fear they will turn the Chiefs into a one-dimensional team by robbing them of their ability to run. This can heat up the pass rush, and like most quarterbacks, Mahomes won’t be as crisp with face pressure.

The Tampa Bay offense ranks 27th in the DVOA and has only 44 offense points in three weeks. The Bucs’ injuries, along with Mike Evans’ Single game suspension, have stopped their offensive production. It feels so easy Losing multiple offensive linemen and missing three of your top receiving options earns you 12 points against a good one packer Defense.

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Well, the Chiefs’ defense could be their most improved individual unit this season. They rank ninth in terms of efficiency over three weeks. They finally found a pass rush and are so active in the backend with their speed and length. Mike Evans is back for the Bucs, but their offensive line will still include at least two backups. is Godwin or Jones the back? There are still too many unknowns for the Bucs offensive.

I take this under here.

SELECT: Both teams scored under 45.5 points together at FOX Bet

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