NFL Week 1 odds, picks, how to watch, streaming: Expert picks, teasers, survivor picks and more
The first Sunday of the new NFL season is finally upon us! While we had a little appetizer with the Bills and Rams kicking off the year Thursday, it’s time for the main course, where we can sink our teeth into a smorgasbord of bets.
As we’ve done in the past, we’ll collect all of the best picks and gambling content each week from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them all in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more.
Ready to dive in? Happy New Year!
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 1? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up almost $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago.
Saints at Falcons
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Saints -3.5
Current: Saints -5.5
“Atlanta is currently tied for the second-best odds to own the NFL’s worst regular season record at +375. Meanwhile, New Orleans is -130 to go over its 8.5 win total and is +105 to reach the playoffs. With that rather large gap in their season outlooks, this game spread does seem to be a bit low, albeit with the Saints being the road favorite. While Sean Payton is no longer manning the sideline, this isn’t a totally revamped staff, with Dennis Allen ascending from defensive coordinator, so they shouldn’t face as many lumps as some clubs with first-year head coaches do.
“Last year, New Orleans was one of the better bets to make when they were on the road, covering in 66.7% of their games. And that was with a bunch of quarterback shuffling following Jameis Winston’s season-ending knee injury. He’s now back healthy and has a group of skill-position players that is much improved.
“While Marcus Mariota is a capable quarterback and rookie wideout Drake London and second-year tight end Kyle Pitts are intriguing weapons, it’s hard to see Atlanta — a team that owns the third-best odds to be the lowest-scoring team in the NFL this year — keeping up with New Orleans’ unit.” — CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan on why the Saints -5.5 is one of his five Locks of the Week. To read the rest, click here.
49ers at Bears
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: 49ers -6
Current: 49ers -7
“This is Trey Lance’s first game as the bonafide starter for the 49ers at quarterback. That can lead to a lot of pressure on the road. But the 49ers are clearly the better team. Kyle Shanahan will make it easy for Lance. Justin Fields will have problems behind a shaky line for the Bears against a good 49ers defense. The 49ers win big.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why he is backing the 49ers.
Steelers at Bengals
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bengals -6
Current: Bengals -6.5
“The Steelers come in as a division dog, which is a role Mike Tomlin has done well in as coach, going 14-6. There are concerns about the Steelers offensive line, which is why this number is bloated. But Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been dealing with appendicitis all preseason, which might lead to some rust. The Steelers will hang around in this one, but the Bengals will win it late.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco is taking the points with Pittsburgh.
Eagles at Lions
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Eagles -3.5
Current: Eagles -4.5
“Detroit is going to be rocking this weekend, as Ford Field is sold out. However, the Eagles were undoubtedly one of the big winners of the NFL offseason. I believe they are a playoff team, but I’m not yet completely sold on quarterback Jalen Hurts, and I want to see if A.J. Brown can be durable. With that said, the Eagles are a much better team than the Lions, and they actually defeated Detroit, 44-6, last year.
“I’m excited to see how this Eagles offense looks Sunday compared to how it operated last year. In 2021, Philly was fourth in the NFL in yards per rush (4.9), and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 25. With, dare I say, two No. 1 wideouts, what will Nick Sirianni do differently? Everyone will be watching the Eagles offense Sunday, but I also think this defense is underrated. With James Bradberry and Darius Slay locking down wideouts and C.J. Gardner-Johnson roaming the second and third levels, this unit could make life tough on Jared Goff. Give me the Eagles to cover.” — CBS Sports gambling guru Jordan Dajani on why he likes the Eagles -4 in Detroit. Click here to read the rest of his picks.
Patriots at Dolphins
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Dolphins -3
Current: Dolphins -3.5
“Can’t wait for the Dolphins to win by 45 points followed by a full-blown attack in my mentions. I actually can wait for that, but what I can’t wait to see is what the heck the Patriots offense looks like under the direction of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Most likely it’ll be Bill Belichick with a heavy hand on the offense, but the whole setup is morbidly intriguing regardless of who’s calling plays.” — Pick Six Podcast host Will Brinson on why he is predicting the Patriots to upset the Dolphins, 17-14. To read the rest of hi spicks, click here.
Ravens at Jets
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Ravens -4
Current: Ravens -6.5
“Ravens star quarterback Lamar Jackson is betting on himself this year, and he has everything he needs to find another level of success in 2022. Baltimore’s wide receiving corps doesn’t look good on paper, but this offense relies on tight end Mark Andrews and the ground game. Keep an eye on rookie tight end Isaiah Likely as well.
“Jets quarterback Joe Flacco is starting over the injured Zach Wilson on Sunday, which I don’t think is even a massive downgrade — especially considering Flacco is probably extra juiced to face his former team. Still, New York has lost five of its past six season openers, while Baltimore has won five of its past six season openers.
“Listen, I think the Jets did a lot of great things in the offseason and that this franchise is on the right track. However, they still aren’t on the same level as the Ravens. I’ll lay seven points with John William Harbaugh.” — CBS Sports’ Jordan Dajani on why he is laying the points and rolling with Baltimore against New York.
Jaguars at Commanders
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Commanders -4.5
Current: Commanders -2.5
“This will be former Eagles coach Doug Pederson going against his former Eagles quarterback in Carson Wentz. The Jaguars beat Wentz and the Colts last year in the finale, which is why he isn’t in Indianapolis anymore. They will beat him again. The Jaguars defense has a chance to be really good, and it shows here.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco is predicting that the Jaguars will pull off the upset against the Commanders.
Browns at Panthers
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Browns -4.5
Current: PK
“With their stout defense and elite rushing attack, the Browns will be quite competitive in Carolina. Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Co. will cause major headaches for the Panthers’ overhauled offensive line. In what is expected to be a low-scoring game — the 42.5 total is the week’s second-lowest — getting more than a touchdown is significant.” — SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein on why he is teasing the Browns from +1.5 to +7.5.
Of course, this is just one of the handful of teaser options that Hartstein has rolled out for Week 1 and is not his official play for the opening slate. To get the full analysis on that official play and the rest of the teaser option, head over to SportsLine.
Colts at Texans
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Colts -7.5
Current: Colts -7
The Indianapolis Colts will see the debut of veteran quarterback Matt Ryan when they go on the road to face the Texans in Week 1. Given that Indy has improved at the game’s most important position and is facing one the worst teams in the NFL in the Texans, this will be a popular Survivor pick. And for good reason! The Colts have owned their AFC South rivals in recent years, winning seven of their last eight meetings against the Texans. Houston has also struggled on its home field, going 1-7 in its last eight games at NRG Stadium.
If you want further analysis before locking in your pick, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model says about this game.
Giants at Titans
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Titans -6.5
Current: Titans -5.5
“This week, I’m backing a ‘dog without high expectations after an awful year against a team that could miss the playoffs after winning the No. 1 seed last year: the New York Giants +5.5 at the Tennessee Titans.
“New coaches have done well historically against the spread in Week 1, aside from a brutal stretch in 2018-19, but rather than play that blindly, I pick my spots with the new coaches I believe are the best candidates to be long-term success stories. And I definitely feel that way about Brian Daboll, who engineered one of the league’s best offenses in Buffalo and turned a divisive quarterback prospect in Josh Allen into a perennial MVP candidate. I don’t think the upside is nearly as high with the offense he’s inheriting in New York, but this should be a franchise on the rise after bumbling through front office and coaching mistakes over the last several years.
“The team Daboll’s up against also happens to be one people are projecting to take a big step back in 2022. Elite wideout A.J. Brown is gone, replaced by the capable Robert Woods as the No. 1 option, reducing the ceiling of the passing game. The offensive line is a question mark as well, and I don’t anticipate Ryan Tannehill elevating the cast around him to the heights of 2021, even with a healthy Derrick Henry in tow. And the defense could be in major trouble after losing star edge rusher Harold Landry for the year, as Bud Dupree leaves a lot to be desired as a No. 1 pass rusher. With rain expected in the forecast, this should be a lower-scoring game where the Giants can stay inside the number and potentially walk away with a win.” — R.J. White in his SuperContest picks for Week 1.
White has been SportsLine’s No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put him up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. He’s also delivered a 56.8 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons.
Packers at Vikings
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Packers -1.5
Current: Packers -1.5
“If you’ve ever wondered what it takes to be an MVP-caliber quarterback in the NFL, I have some good news for you: Aaron Rodgers revealed the secret this offseason. Apparently, all you have to do is have a psychedelic experience in South America. Rodgers did that this offseason and as far as I know, he is now the only NFL QB who has obtained omnipresent, super-galactic oneness.
“If Rodgers says it works, it clearly works, because he’s won two straight MVPs. Also, this would explain why Kirk Cousins has never won an MVP. I mean, if we had to rank every NFL quarterback on the possibility that they would go on a South American psychedelic bender at some point in their life, Kirk Cousins would rank dead last.
“Although Cousins didn’t do any psychedelics this offseason, I actually think he’s going to be good this year. For one, he finally has a head coach who doesn’t hate his guts, which seems like a positive step forward for him.
“Also, Cousins will be in charge of a high-powered offense that includes Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. Although I’m picking the Packers to get to the Super Bowl out of the NFC this year, I’m NOT picking them to win this game and that’s because I think it’s going to take a week or two for them to adjust to life without Davante Adams.” — CBS Sports writer extraordinaire and Pick Six Podcast super friend John Breech on why he is picking the Vikings to beat the Packers, 26-23.
Chiefs at Cardinals
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Chiefs -3
Current: Chiefs -6
“Tom Brady skipped 11 days of training camp and Aaron Rodgers went on a South American bender, and yet, somehow, it might be Kyler Murray who had the weirdest offseason of any NFL quarterback. … The relationship between Murray and the Cardinals feels like it’s at the tipping point, and a few ugly losses to start the season could lead to a full implosion and those losses might actually happen. With the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams in the first three weeks of the season, the Cardinals could be in three shootouts to start the year and they won’t have DeAndre Hopkins for any of those games.
“Not only do the Cardinals have to deal with all of this, but they also have to play against Patrick Mahomes, who has never lost a regular-season opener. In four seasons as the Chiefs’ starter, he’s 4-0 in Week 1 and the Chiefs have scored an average of 36.25 points in those games. I would predict Kansas City to score 36.25 points on Sunday, but I’m told that’s not mathematically possible in the NFL, so I’ll go with 37.” — CBS Sports NFL writer and Pick Six Podcast co-host John Breech on why he likes the Chiefs to win by double digits on the road. To the read the rest of his picks, click here.
Raiders at Chargers
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Chargers -4
Current: Chargers -3.5
“The AFC West is primed to be one of the crazier divisions in the NFL this year, so why not start the year off with an upset? The Chargers have been a sexy pick to win the Super Bowl this season, but I believe the Raiders are catching them at a good time with prized free agent corner J.C. Jackson possibly sidelined for this game after undergoing ankle surgery earlier this summer. Going into an opener without your top corner and the task of having to defend Davante Adams is less than ideal for Los Angeles. Pair that with Las Vegas’s strong defensive line, and there’s solid upset potential here.
“While Josh McDaniels’ head coaching tenure with the Broncos is largely looked at as a failure, he did come out of the gate strong with a 6-0 record. Meanwhile, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley wasn’t too friendly to bettors over his first season at the helm, owning an 8-9 ATS record overall and a 4-4 ATS record as a home favorite.” — Tyler Sullivan on why he is looking for the Raiders to upset the Chargers on the road.
Buccaneers at Cowboys
Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Buccaneers -2.5
Current: Buccaneers -2.5
R.J. White has been a monster at picking, games and it’s no surprise to learn he’s SportsLine’s No. 1 NFL expert. From 2017-21, he’s gone 445-378-24 on his ATS picks which returned $2,542 to $100 players. White is also 33-19-4 in his NFL picks involving the Buccaneers, so you’ll definitely want to see who he has in this one. We can tell you that White is leaning toward the under 50.5 total, but to see his pick for this game you’ll have to have over to SportsLine.
Broncos at Seahawks
Time: Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Broncos -3.5
Current: Broncos -6.5
Analysis to come.