Northwestern or Boise State? How to pick 7 vs. 10 matchup in 2023 March Madness bracket

The number 10 in the NCAA tournament isn’t as successful as the number 9, but you can count on at least one first-round win every year.

The number 10 has beaten the number 7 39 per cent of the time since the group expanded in 1985, although that mark fell slightly last season when only one came out on top.

Will Boise State be a winning No. 10 this season? Starting as favorites against one of the most surprising teams of the season, the Broncos are looking to prove themselves after last year’s first-round loss.

Boise State meets Northwestern, who finished an impressive second place in the Big Ten and are in an NCAA tournament for the first time since 2017. Despite losing two key players to the transfer portal last offseason, Chris Collins’ team made a habit of driving clutch moments with wins this season.

While Northwestern isn’t a March Madness regular, the Wildcats have something Boise State doesn’t have: an NCAA tournament win. The Broncos have made eight tournament appearances in program history but have never claimed a win. A Thursday night win would take Boise State to new heights under coach Leon Rice.

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The Sporting News breaks down what should be a fun duel in the NCAA tournament and takes a look at how to pick this 7v10 game:

Northwestern vs Boise State Odds

Northwestern and Boise State will face off Thursday during the evening schedule of games, starting at 7:35 p.m. ET from Sacramento, Calif.

Boise State opened as a favorite despite being the bottom seed, but the narrow line suggests a tight game could be on the cards.

• Opportunities: State of Boise -1.5
• Date: Thursday March 16th
• Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
• TV: TruTV
• Arena: Golden Center, Sacramento, California.

Northwest (21-11, 12-8 in Big Ten)

Northwestern jumped from the bottom of the Big Ten to second place this season, even after losing both Pete Nance and Ryan Young to the transfer portal. Boo Buie and Chase Audige are the main reasons for this.

Buie has devoted himself wholeheartedly to the Wildcats during this era of constant player movement, lasting four seasons at Evanston and averaging a career-high 17.1 points per game that season. Buie and Audige have delivered in late-game situations for Northwestern all year, making a close game a dangerous scenario for Boise State.

The Wildcats primarily thrive on the defensive side of the ball, keeping opponents at just 62.5 points per game.

Northwestern is managed by coach Chris Collins, who is in his 10th season with the school. Collins has endured a turbulent tenure, earning plaudits for leading the Wildcats to the tournament for the first time in 2017 but has ended up in the hot seat in recent years.

Now back in the tournament, Collins has a Big Ten Coach of the Year award on his hands and looks set to stay with Northwestern for years to come.

• NET Ranking: 41
• KenPom Ranking: 42
• Quad 1 record: 7-6
• Quad 2 record: 4-5
• Quad 3 record: 1-0
• Quad 4 record: 9-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 109
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 13

key figures

Boo Buie, G, Sr. (6-2, 180): 17.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.5 apg

Chase Audige, G, Sr. (6-4, 200): 13.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.5 spg

Ty Berry, G, Jr. (6-2, 190): 8.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg rpg, 1.4 ppg

Robbie Beran, F, Sr. (6-9, 215): 7.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg

Matthew Nicholson, C, Jr. (7-0, 255): 6.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.3 apg

Boise State (24-9, 13-5 in Mountain West)

Boise State has received back-to-back NCAA tournament bids for the first time since 1993 and 1994, but victories at this leg have eluded the Broncos. Boise State’s next win in the big dance will be its first.

The Broncos, also a defensively-focused team, have just 64.3 points per game and just 30.9 percent of shots from three-point range this season.

Two key figures on last year’s tournament team, Marcus Shaver and Tyson Degenhart, are among Boise State’s top scorers, while Max Rice – coach Leon Rice’s son – is enjoying a breakthrough year as one of Mountain West’s top scorers.

The elder Rice is in his 13th season at Boise State and has nine seasons with at least 20 wins under his belt. Before joining the Broncos, he spent 11 seasons as an assistant at Gonzaga.

• NET Ranking: 29
• KenPom Ranking: 31
• Quad 1 record: 3-5
• Quad 2 record: 9-2
• Quad 3 record: 6-2
• Quad 4 record: 5-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 78
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 14

key figures

Max Rice, G, Sr. (6-5, 194): 13.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.7 apg

Tyson Degenhart, F., Soph. (6-7, 232): 14.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.8 apg

Marcus Shaver, G, Sr. (6-2, 185): 13.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.8 apg

Chibuzo Agbo, G, Jr. (6-7, 215): 11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg

Naje Smith, F, Sr. (6-7, 201): 10.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.3 apg

Northwestern vs. Boise State Prediction

This looks like a few points game considering how both teams are defending. Northwestern and Boise State rank 13th and 14th in defense efficiency, respectively. The intensity of NCAA tournament play for two programs without a long track record could also keep the score low.

It’s fair to be concerned about Boise State’s ability to hang out with top-tier teams. The Broncos have three wins against Quad 1 teams while Northwestern has seven. Two losses to Utah State in their last three games raise questions, although the Aggies are a better offensive team than the Wildcats. At least a defensive fight is the style of play that Boise State thrives on.

Is Northwestern a high profile team? That’s debatable, but the Wildcats have proven they can compete with Purdue and Indiana already this season. Their late-game execution was generally great.

Getting starters other than Buie and Audige on offense must be a priority, but Buie will be the most talented offensive player on the court if this game tips.

If we look at a tight, low-scoring game, Buie and Northwestern seem like the best bets to hit that key shot and win in a high-pressure moment. Boise State’s collapse in the late game of the Mountain West tournament only reinforces this idea.

History of 7 vs. 10 matches in NCAA tournament

If Boise State agrees with the odds makers and pulls off a win, the Broncos certainly won’t be the first No. 10 to win. Since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, more than 39 percent of all No. 10 seeds have gone head-to-head with a No. 7 seed.

Only one No. 10 seed won last year when Miami narrowly escaped USC, but the Hurricanes made the most of it and went on to win through to the Elite Eight. Two No. 10 seeds won in 2021 and three won in 2019.

Below is a breakdown of which #10 seeds have beaten #7 seeds over the past 10 years.

Year	Result
2022	Miami (Florida) 68, USC 66
2021	Maryland 63, UConn 54
	Rutgers 60, Clemson 56
2019	Florida 70, Nevada 61
	Iowa 79, Cincinnati 72
	Minnesota 86, Louisville 76
2018	Butler 79, Arkansas 62
2017	State of Wichita 64, Dayton 58
2016	VCU 75, Oregon State 67
	Syracuse 70, Dayton 51
2015	State of Ohio 75, VCU 72
2014	Stanford 58, New Mexico 53
2013	State of Iowa 76, Notre Dame 58
2012	Xavier 67, Notre Dame 63
	Purdue 72, Saint Mary’s 69