• Mike Tomlin wins Coach of the Year +3000 at BetMGM
• Best Bet: Steelers makes the playoffs +350 at DraftKings
• The 2021 Pittsburgh Steelers made the playoffs for the second straight year, with a 9-7-1 mark that extended head coach Mike Tomlin’s streak of avoiding a losing season to an NFL-record 15 years. Nonetheless, the Steelers’ point difference was -55 for a fundamental record of 7-10.
• For the first time since 2004, Pittsburgh will open the season without Ben Roethlisberger as the franchise’s leader. Following Roethlisberger’s retirement, the Steelers handed the keys to Mitch Trubisky — who had some league moments but was mostly a disappointment — and finally to Kenny Pickett, the only quarterback won in the first two rounds of the April draft . With some atrophy in the rest of the roster, upgrading these players against a scrubbed Big Ben will determine if the Steelers can compete in a tough AFC.
Current power ranking: 21
Current SOS: 5.
|2||Sun, 18.9||against New England|
|4||Sun Oct 2||against New York Jets|
|5||Sun 9 Oct||@ buffalo|
|6||Sun, 16.10||against Tampa Bay|
|8th||Sun 30 Oct||@Philadelphia|
|10||Sun, 13.11||against New Orleans|
|11||Sun, 20.11||against Cincinnati|
|13||Sun, Dec 4||@Atlanta|
|14||Sun, 11.12||against Baltimore|
|16||Sat, 24.12||against Vegas|
|17||Sat, January 1st||@Baltimore|
|18||Sat, January 8th||against Cleveland|
Total Profit: 7.5 (+100), -120 below (54.5%)
We make the Steelers a 7.45 win-average team, exceeding 7.5 overall wins 48.57% of the time (+106) and under the 7.45 overall win 51.43% of the time (-106), which means there isn’t much value on either side here. If you think Trubisky and Pickett are really going to struggle and that a top-heavy team can’t stand injury, an Alt Under is the game for you.
Best bid: Avoid
Make playoffs: +350 yes, -450 no
Breakeven % yes: 22.2%
Breakeven % NO: 81.8%
We give the Steelers a 26.4% chance of making the playoffs, which means a 7/2 bet on the yes is a good play. At +350 the payout is enough to consider it a long shot that is likely to lose but has some value.
Best bid: Pittsburgh to make the playoffs is a positive EV game. A $20 bet at MGM could return $90.
AFC North Titles: +900
Breakeven %: 10%
We give the Steelers a 12.4% chance of winning the AFC North, which is value. They would need the Ravens and Bengals to fall away, but given the former’s injury history and the latter’s difficult schedule, it might be worth a sprinkle.
Best bid: Small game against Steelers to win the +900 division. A $20 bet could return $200.
Super Bowl: +8000
Breakeven %: 1.2%
We’re giving the Steelers a 0.6% chance of winning the Super Bowl, so there’s no value here at 80/1. Hard to see Trubisky or Pickett wielding the AFC gauntlet.
Best bid: Avoid
Notable special offers
Mike Tomlin +3000 named Coach of the Year (3.2%)
I wrote about this market here, and Tomlin fits into the candidate category. His quarterback most likely won’t be a 4-WAR type, and expectations are low enough that a 10- or 11-win season will go far enough for him to be considered. This is probably the route to Pittsburgh’s really long shot bet.
George Pickens +850 becomes Offensive Rookie of the Year (10.5%)
Pickens might be the most impressive rookie during this year’s preseason storytelling cycle and while everyone should be cynical about the importance of these things, people betting in this market are putting their money behind him as he is the favorite at BetMGM. That’s far too rich for my blood at this point, but it’s very remarkable to consider as another way to back the Steelers.
Best bid: Tomlin wins Trainer of the Year +3000. A $20 bet could return $620 at BetMGM.
Breakeven % is the rate at which a simulated outcome must occur for the bet to have a positive EV.