Pre-Festival Predictions — World of Reel

Alright, now that we’re settled and ready, here are the final best picture predictions before we embark on the intense final four months of this film year.

First things first, I’ve been told by my Telluride contact not to expect the unexpected. Almost everything that has been predicted is actually what will happen. There will be no Babylon surprise or David O. Russell’s Amsterdam. As Joe Pesci says in The Irishman, “It is what it is.

The first 8 months of the year gave us 3 contenders for the best picture: “Top Gun: Maverick“, “everything everywhere at once” and “elvis.”

Next month brings us The Son, TAR, The Fabelmans, Bardo, Women Talking, The Whale, Bones & All, The Banshees of Inisherin, Til, White Noise”, “She Said”, “Glass Onion” and “Empire of Light”.

If Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritus “bardo‘ doesn’t get overwhelmingly positive reviews, then his Oscar chances go down the drain. AGI needs the critique and its absence from the New York Film Festival is worrying. I am told that the film will not only be an autobiographical account of the director’s life, but will also deal with the relevant and all too relevant issue of illegal Mexican immigration to the US.

A person I spoke to yesterday and the Steven Spielbergs “The Fabelmans“, told me that after this year no one will talk about this film. It’ll probably still garner Oscar nominations, but I don’t think that’s seen as some kind of high point in Spielberg’s career. The film was tested for positive feedback about a month ago.

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Sarah Polley’swomen speak“It is in the truest sense of the word. One person posted a reaction last week stating that this chamber play was well acted and staged. It’s a 90-minute film about #MeToo dialogue that will surely resonate with some.

The whale” and “The son‘ were both dropped from Telluride and New York. One person who has seen Aronofsky’s film tells me that it will upset many and that it has a polarizing, almost staged, nature.

I’m not entirely convinced that “White noise‘ his complicated source material will break through with voters. Critics will be more willing to delve into Noah Baumbach’s satire.

Also, in a recent podcast, Eric Kohn mentioned that contrary to what Venice boss Alberto Barbera has said, he has heard that “Bones & Everything‘ isn’t an Oscar winner, it’s an art-house genre affair. I had a suspicion that this is the case.

Then there’s Todd Fields”TAR‘, the only film this fall that I’m absolutely convinced will make Oscar waves. It has already been screened in California to a very select group of critics and both reactions I received were enthusiastic. This is the one film that has got TIFF kicking itself for this year.

As for Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” it’s in my predictions, why shouldn’t it be? I’ve said since spring that there isn’t and never has been a timeline for its release.

Apple had set a tentative date for December 2022, with the full notion that everything would be in the hands of Scorsese and editor Thelma Schoonmaker. Both have been given carte blanche – if they give Apple a wetprint of Killers in December, it will be released later this month. The Cannes 2023 rumor just always seemed so widespread and unrealistic. Why risk your chance at a $200 million Academy Award by premiering in the middle of the year at a festival known for its hostile press? i don’t buy it

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Predictions 08/21/22

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