Raiders vs. Chiefs: How to watch, time, TV channel, live stream, key matchup, pick for ‘Monday Night Football’

Things should be different at AFC West this year. It should be more competitive, more balanced. Instead, so far it’s looking like it’s been the past few seasons: the Chiefs look like the best team, and everyone else is battling for second, third, and fourth.

The Raiders have a chance to change that dynamic Monday night when they travel to Kansas City to take on their division rivals. Derek Carr, Davante Adams and company finally got their first win of the 2022 campaign last week when they beat the Broncos, and they’re certainly looking to make it two straight tonight.

So, will the Chiefs cement their lead in the AFC West, or will the Raiders keep the good times going and mess the picture up yet? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here’s how to watch the match.

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Date: Monday 10 Oct | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
TV: ESPN | Electricity: fuboTV (try for free)
Consequences: CBS Sports App
opportunities: Chiefs -7, O/U 51.5 (courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

When the Raiders have the ball

The Raiders put on their best offensive performance of the season, which was also Josh Jacobs’ best game of his career. Opponents have often attempted to pass the ball to the Chiefs defense to control the clock and it wouldn’t be surprising if Josh McDaniels attempted that here. But that only works as long as you can get the Chiefs point by point while Patrick Mahomes hurls the ball down the field, and it seems unlikely the Raiders can do that based on only an intermittent run game.

Las Vegas’ offensive line will have to cut its work against Chris Jones at center and Frank Clark and George Karlaftis at the rim. The group at the top has held up surprisingly well so far, with Derek Carr seeing only 29% of his dropbacks under pressure, according to TruMedia. (The league average is 31.7%.) It certainly helps that Carr puts the ball wide in just 2.6 seconds on average, the ninth fastest time out of 32 qualified quarterbacks. He’s one of only eight to throw at least half of his passes within 2.5 seconds of the snap, which helps neutralize the pass rush that generally takes so long to hit the target.

However, Carr hasn’t surpassed 6.9 yards per attempt since Week 1, and the short, quick passing game that’s the offensive focus is no doubt helping.

If Carr has enough time to throw, the Raiders could have some perimeter advantages. The Chiefs don’t have cornerbacks with the combination of height and physicality to handle Davante Adams. (Allowing Charvarius Ward to sign with the 49ers this offseason works against them here, especially since Trent McDuffie is still injured.) The Raiders will move him through the entire formation to get the matchup they want, and Carr will target it with impunity until opponents find a way to stop it.

Darren Waller, playing against linebackers Nick Bolton and Darius Harris and safeties Juan Thornhill and Justin Reid, is a matchup that’s causing some intrigue. So Hunter Renfrow (returning from a concussion) is in the slot against L’Jarius Sneed. The Raiders need to be on high alert when Sneed comes on blitz as Steve Spagnuolo is likely to send him into the backfield to occasionally try to destroy things for the opposition’s offense.

When the Chiefs have the ball

Although Tyreek Hill is no longer employed, the Chiefs have continued to play offensively thanks to Patrick Mahomes’ play. He entered Week 5 first in the league in the EPA by dropback (.30), according to TruMedia, and after Sunday’s games he’s only second to Josh Allen (.31). He is 97 of 146 for 1,106 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions.

Kansas City does things a little differently in the passing game, with Mahomes far happier than ever throwing under and making his receivers work after catches — at least when they’re flashing quickly. He regularly beats Travis Kelce, executes all sorts of screens, and distributes the ball to multiple wide receivers that rotate heavily in the lineup. Remember those soft zone coverage issues the Chiefs had midway through last season? Those are mostly gone (so far), with Mahomes completing 14 of 25 passes for 166 yards and one touchdown against cover-2 and cover-4 while adding 32 extra yards with his legs.

When no one rushes to snap after the snap, Mahomes creates magic with his usual flair. He’s Pro Football Focus’s second-highest passer on throws at least 2.5 seconds after the snap and their leader in big throws in those games (eight, no one else has more than six). He’s sacked just 3.3% of dropbacks and has the second-lowest sacks-per-push rate in the NFL. As of this writing, Allen and Mahomes are the only quarterbacks in the league with a positive EPA per dropback mark when under pressure, and Mahomes has a league-high five touchdown passes in those games, even though the Chiefs are a game under 30 the 31 other teams played.

The Raiders split their coverage fairly evenly between single high looks (48.3% cover 1 and cover 3) and two high looks (38.3% cover 2, cover 4, cover 6). , which is quite a change from how they used to operate under former defense coordinator Gus Bradley. Mahomes routinely ignited the Raiders’ defensive backfield in these matchups, and while the staff is similar, the backend strategy is at least a little different than in the past.

Still, Kansas City should have several advantages in the passing game, especially with Travis Kelce aligned with Vegas’ linebackers and safeties. If the Raiders try to play him with one of them — especially if he’s lining up at the back of trips formations, as he often does — he’ll absolutely fry it. Of course if they stick to more zone based stuff Kelce is fully capable of finding the weak points, JuJu Smith-Schuster was also a strong bottom option but it’s worth noting that he showed up late in the injury report this week. Mecole Hardman has been plagued by a heel injury, so the Chiefs could rotate receivers a little more and like guys like Justin Watson and/or Skyy Moore more.

The Chiefs have also used Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a receiver outside the backfield more times this year than in the past, and he’s responded well with career-high averages in receptions per game, yards per game, catch rate, and yards per goal (by a margin). CEH started splitting more work with Isiah Pacheco in the running game last week and it seemed like both are running fresh and hard from behind a very good offensive line. However, CEH is far more likely to contribute as a receiver than Pacheco, and the Chiefs have taken advantage of his skills.

The big way for the Raiders to cause trouble on this side of the ball is probably with Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby dominating on the perimeter. Crosby started the season great but Jones got off to a very slow start. Orlando Brown has been up and down in pass protection for the Chiefs and Andrew Wylie is probably the weakest link along the offensive front, but Mahomes is obviously more than capable of neutralizing even the best pass rush as long as he doesn’t get him to the ground before he does even has a chance of hitting the top of his drop.

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Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Score: Chiefs 30, Raiders 17