Redblacks vs Elks Week 12 Picks and Predictions: Ottawa Gets the Best of Edmonton in Rematch

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Week 12 in the CFL concludes on Saturday with the Edmonton Elks hosting the Ottawa Redblacks at Commonwealth Stadium.

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These are the two worst sides in the league and the Red Blacks were defeated 30-12 in the nation’s capital last week. With that in mind, Ottawa will make a change at quarterback and start Nick Arbuckle in hopes of setting a spark in the second half of the season.

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Here are our top free Redblacks vs Elks tips and predictions for Saturday 27th August.

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Redblacks vs Elks Odds

This odds widget represents the best available odds for every betting market from regulated sports betting providers.

That line was opened when the Elks were installed as 3-point home favorites with a 48.5 over/under set. In a rarity for the CFL, no line has moved as of Friday afternoon.

Use the live odds widget above to follow all future line movement up to kick-off and be sure to check the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

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Redblacks vs Elks week 12 predictions

Predictions were made on 08/26/2022 at 10:00 AM ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Information about the game Redblacks vs. Elks

location: The Brick Field at Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB
date: Saturday 27 August 2022
kicking off: 7:00 p.m. ET

Redblacks at Elks betting preview


key breaches

red black: Money Hunter CB (out), Justin Howell S (out), Sherrod Baltimore DB (out), RJ Harris WR (out), William Powell RB (out), Adam Auclair OLB (out), Kwaku Boateng DE (out), Jeremiah Masoli QB (out), Randy Richards OT (out).
moose: Emmanuel Arceneaux WR (out), Tony Washington OT (out), Tre Ford QB (out), Tre Watson LB (out), Aaron Grymes S (out), Christian Rector DT (out), James Wilder Jr. RB (out) .
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

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to know the betting trend

The Elks are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games, while the Red Blacks have been 4-1 ATS in their last five away games. Find more CFL betting trends for Redblacks vs Elks.

Redblacks vs Elks tips and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total score in that game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread Analysis

The 1-8 Redblacks have the worst record in the league, but playing at home last week had Ottawa open as a 4.5-point favorite. That line proved wildly inaccurate as it allowed the Elks to have 27 unanswered points and win their third game of the season – all of those wins not coming accidentally against East Division opponents.

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The Redblacks replaced acting quarterback Caleb Evans in the fourth quarter with Arbuckle, who had a highly productive season in Calgary in 2019 as a replacement for Bo Levi Mitchell’s injury.

Arbuckle joined the Redblacks the following year but didn’t snap because the season was abandoned and then struggled with the Argos in 2021. He signed with the Elks last offseason but was never head coach Chris Jones’ type and was ultimately traded to Ottawa for a bag of chips after throwing eight interceptions to just two touchdowns in Edmonton.

Arbuckle is actually pretty accurate – especially on the fast routes he prefers – and his interceptions are usually the result of poor decision making. He needs to take much better care of football but is supported by an Elks secondary who rarely plays with the ball. Edmonton is bottom in the CFL with just nine passes defended, a whopping 11 fewer than penultimate Toronto.

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That’s not the only defensive category in which Edmonton ranks bottom, with the Elks in points allowed per game (33.6), net defense (368.3 yards per game), yards allowed per game ( 7.1) and trailing average yards allowed are first down (7.0) and sacks (16).

The Elks also sit bottom of the league in net offense (291.1 ypg) and yards per game (5.4). As bad as the Redblacks were, Edmonton remains the statistically inferior team.

It’s also worth noting that the layout of the Commonwealth Stadium creates a buffer between the fans and the game, which doesn’t seem to help the home team in the slightest. In fact, the Elks have not won at home since changing their nickname and are only 3-14 ATS in their last 17 competitions. I tend towards the Redblacks with the points.

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forecast: Redblacks +3 (-105 on FanDuel)

Includes CFL betting analysis

Over/Under Analysis

The Elks have historically poor defense, but their stats are somewhat skewed by two games against BC’s offensive juggernaut and a contest against the Stamps, where they averaged 493 yards and 51.3 points per game.

They won’t be quite as terrible against a Redblacks attack that lacks playmakers and has averaged just 17.8 ppg since losing QB Jeremiah Masoli in Week 5 through a season-ending injury.

Aside from Kenny Lawler, however, the Moose don’t have many weapons of their own. Quarterback Taylor Cornelius has done a solid job since taking offense in Week 6, but he’s no gamebreaker and Edmonton’s seedy offensive line does him no favors.

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These teams combined for just 622 yards of offense last week, and they’ve been most effective when they’re hauling yards on the ground. Don’t expect many big passes from both sides and support the Under 48.5.

forecast: Under 48.5 (-110 at bet365)

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Last week I was all over the Elks at Plus Money, but this week I’m jumping to the sides and grabbing the Redblacks for value play. I think books might overstate the elks a bit after that win in Ottawa. Regardless, the Elks are just a terrible team at any stage of the game.

We also saw no indication that they benefit from home advantage and the Red-Blacks should be strengthened by the change in QB. I take the underdogs on the money line at +140 which looks like a nice spot for revenge.

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Choose: Redblack’s Moneyline (+140 at DraftKings)

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