Super Bowl 2023 odds, prediction, betting trends for Eagles vs. Chiefs

The 2022-23 NFL season concludes Sunday afternoon when the Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) meet the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX). Sunday marks only the sixth time in NFL history that the No. 1s from the two conferences have met to hoist the Lombardi Trophy while being showered with confetti.

The NFC champion Eagles advanced into the big game after a historic regular season in which head coach Nick Sirianni led the Birds to a 14-3 overall record thanks to offense averaging 28.1 points per game (third) and relentless defense three levels. Sirianni clearly wouldn’t have made it without third-year QB Jalen Hurts, who would have taken his game to another level by rushing. Hurts also reaped the benefits of having a new No. 1 wide receiver on the team, as AJ Brown’s addition took some pressure off fellow passers DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert and helped Hurts throw for a career-high Elite 22 3,701 yards : 6 TD to INT ratio.

While the offense tops the league in countless statistical categories, Philly’s defense has performed equally well in two playoff games. They’ve conceded just 14 points in their wins over the Giants and 49ers, and their elite pass rush, which boasts the highest pass rush rating of PFF (90.2), is capable of rushing a game sideways to turn.

SUPER BOWL PICKS: The best bets and prop picks for Super Bowl 57

Meanwhile, Kansas City returns to a familiar place as Andy Reid’s squad is back in the big game for the third time in four seasons. “Big Red” has a chance to go 4-0 against his former franchise as the former Eagles headman would love nothing more than toppling the franchise that occupied him from 1999-2012.

This iteration of the Chiefs had to win the respect of many from the start, but for what real reason? Sure, trading All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill in the offseason along with the loss of fellow WRs Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle would result in some roster changes at a key qualifying position, but as long as Patrick Mahomes snaps snaps under center, a super bowl look is always within reach.

While the Chiefs’ path to Super Bowl 57 wasn’t as seamless as the Eagles’, they found a way to pick up two wins to keep their championship hopes alive. An ankle injury suffered by Mahomes in the first half in the divisional round against Jacksonville quickly silenced Arrowhead, but you can never count “The Grim Reaper” to demonstrate his resilience and lead the Chiefs to victory.

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Kansas City then had a chance to redeem last season’s second-half collapse of the AFC Championship by beating the Bengals 23-20 in a game in which the betting market held the Chiefs for most of the week had previously priced the rematch as a home outsider. Now that the Chiefs are back on the game’s biggest stage, the soon-to-be two-time MVP is tasked with leading the league’s highest-scoring offense against arguably the best defense in a classic of all time.

Here’s everything you need to know about betting on the Eagles vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 57, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the big game.

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Super Bowl 2023 Odds for Eagles vs Chiefs

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

  • spread: Eagle -1.5 (-110); Chiefs +1.5 (-110)
  • About Below: 50.5
  • money line: Eagle -125; Chiefs +105

After emerging as slight 1.5-point underdogs, the Eagles became 1.5-point favorites as a result of an influx of prestigious funds reaching Philadelphia. The Eagles reached as low as -2 on most spots, but the lines went down half a point and could fall further in the coming days. In terms of over/under, the total bet was increased by one point to 50.5 after opening at 49.5.

Eagles vs. Chiefs All-Time Series

The Chiefs are no strangers to the big game, having made their fifth Super Bowl appearance and third appearance in the last four seasons. Kansas City fell to Green Bay in Super Bowl I, defeated Minnesota in Super Bowl IV, defeated San Francisco in Super Bowl LIV, and most recently lost to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV.

Sunday marks the Eagles’ fourth trip to the big game and second in the last six seasons. Philadelphia lost Super Bowl XV to Oakland and Super Bowl XXXIX to New England, but clinched its only title against New England in Super Bowl LII.

In their never-ending neck-and-neck streak, the Chiefs lead the Eagles 5-4. Kansas City also won the final meeting in Week 4 of last season, posting a 42-30 away win. Mahomes threw five TD passes on just six misses, and Hurts threw for a career-high 387 passing yards.

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Three trends to get to know

– Kansas City has been doing well against NFC teams lately and entered the big game, covering six straight games against NFC opponents.

– Philadelphia has been better than Kansas City this season as the Eagles went 10-9 ATS (52.6 percent). Kansas City actually had the fourth-lowest coverage margin (7-11-1) at 38.9 percent.

– While it’s a rare occurrence to see the Chiefs in the underdog role, OVER bettors are licking their chops as 12 of the last 16 games in which Kansas City has been an underdog have topped the total.

Three things to see

Eagle’s pass rush against Chief’s offensive line

The last two Super Bowls were ultimately decided by the team with the better pass rush, and Sunday’s encounter numbers follow a similar trajectory. Los Angeles conceded seven sacks to Joe Burrow in Super Bowl 56, and Tampa Bay bested Mahomes in Super Bowl 55, tripping him three times but putting him under a lot more pressure.

After Kansas City’s 9:31 loss to Tampa in Super Bowl 55, the Chiefs made revamping their offensive line a priority. Since then, Mahomes has had a much more stable group of blockers, conceding the third-lowest sacks (26) this season along with the fifth-lowest adjusted sack rate (4.8 percent). They’ll face their toughest test against an Eagles pass rush, which has produced the third-most sacks of all time (70) along with a 25.5 percent pressure rate (second in the NFL). Between Hasson Reddick, Josh Sweat, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Robert Quinn and others, it’s virtually impossible to keep the Eagles’ defensive line in check for over 60 minutes.

Don’t expect defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to blitz dial-in very often, especially since his defensive line can create natural pressure. At ankle and all, Mahomes was in the AFC Championship game against the Blitz Elite, completing eight of 11 passes for a TD and QB rating of 140.3. Philadelphia also blitzed at a below-league average rate (22.1 percent) in the regular season, so that’s unlikely to change against a QB who can negate the blitz.

The Health of the Chiefs WR Corps

Along with Mahome’s ankle problems, the Chiefs WRs were dropping like flies in the AFC championship game. Mecole Hardman (pelvis), Kadarius Toney (ankle/thigh) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) were all eliminated early, while Justin Watson was placed on the pre-game inactive list with illness. It looks like Hardman will be the only WR to miss the big game after landing on injured reserve. Toney, Smith-Schuster and Watson took part in paddling practice on Monday, so all signs are pointing to these three set to compete on Sunday. Crucially, Mahomes has his full tally of WRs against an Eagles pass defense that tops the league in drop-back EPA (-.110) while keeping the WRs at an 81.7 passer rating.

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The Eagles’ running game

While Hurts’ improved passing ability keeps the defense on their toes, the Eagles’ running game is their bread and butter. Philadelphia has 39 TDs in the league along with the highest rush EPA and pulled off a juicy matchup against a Kansas City defense that has the 22nd highest rush EPA (-0.054) and 4.7 yards per carry compared to run -Pass option enabled (19th). Philadelphia also excels in short-yard situations, converting 87.8 percent of its QB sneaks (29 of 33) and helping its offense to have the third-best red-zone TD rate (67.8 percent) .

Stat that matters: 31 points

That’s the average winning margin in the last two Super Bowls, when the league’s best passing defense went up against the passing yards leader. In Super Bowl XXXVII, Jon Gruden’s Buccaneers had five interceptions against Rich Gannon en route to a 48-21 win. More recently, the Broncos were held to eight points by Peyton Manning in a 35-point loss to Seattle’s Legion of Boom defense in Super Bowl XLVIII. Will the Eagles’ league-leading pass defense hold their own against the Chiefs’ powerful pass offense this time?

Super Bowl 57 Prediction

Seeing the current odds being close to a pick ’em is a fair assessment of the difference between these two teams on a neutral field. With the Eagles riding to two sweat-free victories in the playoffs, it makes sense that influential bettors would want to bet the Eagles as underdogs in the opening. It’s still hard to imagine the Chiefs playing the underdog role, especially considering it’s their third trip to the big game in four seasons. Mahomes’ ability to negate the Eagles’ pass rush by improvising on his healed ankle and keeping third-place drives alive means the Chiefs are doing just enough to close their third Super Bowl in franchise history win.

FORECAST: Chiefs 27, eagles 24. Kansas City (+1.5) covers the spread on the fly ABOVE the sum (50.5).

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